Tuesday, December 31, 2013

EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone




EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.3670. The ratings agency Standard and Poor’s downgraded the credit rating of the Eurozone from AAA to AA+ with a stable outlook. On the other hand Fitch Ratings affirmed France’s AA+ rating. The International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for the US Economy and forecasted that the economy would expand at a faster pace next year, because of the positive economic data and the sings of compromise in the US Congress. On the economic side an official report indicated that the Gross Domestic Product in the United States grew at 4.1 percent on an annual basis in the 3rd quarter of 2013. The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Boston Eric Rosengren stated on Friday that he does not agree with the cut of the asset purchase program that FED announced last week. According to Rosengren the unemployment rate in the country is still too high and the inflation is too low. Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.3625 and resistance is seen at 1.3730. The HotForex Traders Board shows that 65 percent of the traders are short on the EURUSD.







EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

What is a Lot in Forex?




A lot refers to a bundle of units in trade. It essentially refers to the size of the trade that you are making.



Some examples of lots that you may be familiar with is at the grocery store. If you buy a 6-Pack of your favorite beverage you are essentially buying 1 lot. You see, you can’t buy 3 cans of the beverage; you have to purchase them as a full pack.



You can buy more than 6, by purchasing more ‘packs’, but you can only purchase them in multiples of 6. The 6-Pack is an example of a LOT.In Foreign Exchange, lots comprise how many units of currency in the trade.



The smallest lot available is a micro lot which is a bundle of 1,000 units of currency (often times referred to as 1k). This means the smallest trade size you can make is in multiples of 1k. You can trade 1k, 2k, 3k, or 138k just so long as it is in multiples of 1k. Each 1k is referred to as a lot.


What_is_a_Lot_in_Forex_body_Picture_1.png, What is a Lot in Forex?


(Created using FXCM’s Trading Station II Desktop)



In the example above, the trader would be placing an order for 15 lots since the trade size is 15k or 15,000 units of currency. Essentially, by placing this order, the trader is stating “I want to buy 15 lots of US Dollars while selling the equivalent size in Japanese Yen.” You may also hear terms like mini lots or standard lots. These are older FX terms that refer to larger trade sizes. Years ago, FX trading was conducted with a minimum trade size of 100k which was considered a standard lot. Then, as the big banks became better at processing the plethora of electronic trades from retail brokers, they were able to offer a mini lot which was 10k units of currency.



Eventually, the minimum trade size was lowered to 1k which is called a lot or micro lot.



FX trading has been around a long time and the big banks would exchange currencies in a special sized lot called “yard”. A yard of currency is 1 billion units.



Naturally, the more lots you trade, the greater risk you are taking on. Newer traders need to realize the impact their trade size has on their account equity. Too often, I’ve seen newer traders try to reduce risk on the trade by decreasing the distance of their stop loss. In many cases, the best way to reduce risk is to reduce the number of lots traded.



Open a free forex practice trading account and place two different trades with a different number of lots.



Try placing a trade on the EURUSD for 10 lots. Then, place another practice trade on the GBPUSD for 100 lots. Notice how GBPUSD moves quicker and is a risker trade because of more units exposed in the market.



Once you get comfortable with how the lot works, understanding forex trade sizes using notional value can bring more clarity as to why certain pairs may move more than others and why pip costs may differ drastically.



—Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX Education



Contact us at instructor@dailyfx.com if you are experiencing any difficulties with your free practice account or if you have questions about the two practice trades placed above.



Follow me on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader.



To be added to Jeremy’s e-mail distribution list, click HERE and select SUBSCRIBE then enter in your email information.



See Jeremy’s recent articles at his DailyFX Forex Educators Bio Page.





What is a Lot in Forex?

Chinese Manufacturing Growth Holds Up



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





Chinese Manufacturing Growth Holds Up

*China Manufacturing PMI Falls To 51.00 In December, Consensus 51.2



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





*China Manufacturing PMI Falls To 51.00 In December, Consensus 51.2

Fannie Mae Releases November 2013 Monthly Summary



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





Fannie Mae Releases November 2013 Monthly Summary

Top Trading Lessons from 2013




A good trader never stops learning, and every mistake is another potential learning experience. Here are some of the top lessons our analysts learned, absorbed or suffered from our personal trading in 2013.



John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist



Improvise, Adapt, Overcome



David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist



The Facts Change, I Change. But if They Don’t, There’s No Need



Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist



Look Before You Jump



Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist



The Recent Past Took Over



Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist



Agility is Critical Even for Long-Term Traders



Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist



Hesitation- When Technical Clarity is Overshadowed by Noise & Doubt



David Song, Currency Analyst



Stay Nimble But Don’t Be Too Prudent



Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst



Stay Flexible – Be Willing to Admit You’re Wrong



Written by the DailyFX Research team.



Follow and contact the DailyFX Team for future updates via Twitter: https://twitter.com/DailyFX/following





Top Trading Lessons from 2013

EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone




EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.3670. The ratings agency Standard and Poor’s downgraded the credit rating of the Eurozone from AAA to AA+ with a stable outlook. On the other hand Fitch Ratings affirmed France’s AA+ rating. The International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for the US Economy and forecasted that the economy would expand at a faster pace next year, because of the positive economic data and the sings of compromise in the US Congress. On the economic side an official report indicated that the Gross Domestic Product in the United States grew at 4.1 percent on an annual basis in the 3rd quarter of 2013. The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Boston Eric Rosengren stated on Friday that he does not agree with the cut of the asset purchase program that FED announced last week. According to Rosengren the unemployment rate in the country is still too high and the inflation is too low. Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.3625 and resistance is seen at 1.3730. The HotForex Traders Board shows that 65 percent of the traders are short on the EURUSD.







EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

Forex: US Dollar Technical Analysis ? Trend Favors Upside Bias




To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE



Talking Points



  • Prices rose as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candle pattern


  • Breaking below 10657 (range top) eyes the 10612-18 area (channel, range bottoms)


  • A turn back above 10685 (38.2% Fib exp.) targets 10723 (50% Fib exp.)


Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket onMirror Trader **


dailyclassics_us_dollar_index_body_Picture_11.png, Forex: US Dollar Technical Analysis – Trend Favors Upside Bias


Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0



** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.



— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak



New to FX? START HERE



For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed





Forex: US Dollar Technical Analysis ? Trend Favors Upside Bias

*Aussie Trades Back Above 0.8950 Against Greenback, First Time In 8-days



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





*Aussie Trades Back Above 0.8950 Against Greenback, First Time In 8-days

U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds More Than Expected In December



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds More Than Expected In December

Spot Gold Rises 1.5 Pct to Session High of $1,213.60/oz in Thin Holiday Trade



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





Spot Gold Rises 1.5 Pct to Session High of $1,213.60/oz in Thin Holiday Trade

Dollar Steady Following US Consumer Confidence Report



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





Dollar Steady Following US Consumer Confidence Report

Us 1-Year Consumer Inflation Rate Expectations 5.2 Pct in Dec Vs Nov 5.2 Pct



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





Us 1-Year Consumer Inflation Rate Expectations 5.2 Pct in Dec Vs Nov 5.2 Pct

Economic Expectations Boost the UK Pound



Great Britain pound symbolEconomic expectations are helping the UK pound today, especially against the euro. The pound is seeing success as Forex traders and analysts look to 2014 for continued improvement in the UK economy. Many expect good news for the housing sector, and that is expected to form the cornerstone of economic recovery.



During 2013, the sterling appreciated against 13 of 16 major counterparts. Today, the UK pound is at a three-week high against the euro. Even though the UK pound has seen a bit of volatility throughout, the overall trend has been one of gathering strength.


Right now, as the year draws to a close, the UK pound is mostly higher. Expectations are that November home prices and mortgage approvals are up, and an improving housing market is forming the basis of a better economy for 2014.


There are expectations that, at some point in the relatively near future, the Bank of England will begin stepping down its stimulus programs. The BOE said it will keep rates low until unemployment gets below 7 per cent, and the level is at 7.4 per cent right now. Sterling is a currency to keep an eye on.


At 14:39 GMT GBP/USD is up to 1.6524 from the open at 1.6504. EUR/GBP is down to 0.8326 from the open at 0.8361. GBP/JPY is up to 173.5750 from the open at 173.4550.


If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Great Britain Pound,


feel free to post them using the commentary form below.





Economic Expectations Boost the UK Pound

Forex: GBP/USD Technical Analysis ? Advance Extends for Fifth Day




To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE



Talking Points



  • Prices are testing resistance at 1.6520 (50% Fibonacci expansion)


  • A break higher aims for 1.6592 (61.8% Fib exp.)


  • Support is at 1.6448 (38.2% Fib exp.)


Confirm your chart-based trade setups with the Technical Analyzer.


dailyclassics_gbp-usd_body_Picture_9.png, Forex: GBP/USD Technical Analysis – Advance Extends for Fifth Day


Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0



— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak



New to FX? START HERE



For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed





Forex: GBP/USD Technical Analysis ? Advance Extends for Fifth Day

Monday, December 30, 2013

Forex: NZD/USD Technical Analysis ? Channel Top Back in Focus




To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE



Talking Points



  • Prices a retesting resistance in the 0.8214-35 area (38.2% Fib ret., channel top)


  • A break higher initially targets 0.8334 (December 10 high)


  • Below support at 0.8112 (50% Fib ret.) exposes 0.8011 (61.8% Fib ret.)


Confirm your chart-based trade setups with the Technical Analyzer.


dailyclassics_nzd-usd_body_Picture_11.png, Forex: NZD/USD Technical Analysis – Channel Top Back in Focus



Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0



— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak



New to FX? START HERE



For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed





Forex: NZD/USD Technical Analysis ? Channel Top Back in Focus

EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone




EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.3670. The ratings agency Standard and Poor’s downgraded the credit rating of the Eurozone from AAA to AA+ with a stable outlook. On the other hand Fitch Ratings affirmed France’s AA+ rating. The International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for the US Economy and forecasted that the economy would expand at a faster pace next year, because of the positive economic data and the sings of compromise in the US Congress. On the economic side an official report indicated that the Gross Domestic Product in the United States grew at 4.1 percent on an annual basis in the 3rd quarter of 2013. The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Boston Eric Rosengren stated on Friday that he does not agree with the cut of the asset purchase program that FED announced last week. According to Rosengren the unemployment rate in the country is still too high and the inflation is too low. Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.3625 and resistance is seen at 1.3730. The HotForex Traders Board shows that 65 percent of the traders are short on the EURUSD.







EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

Canadian Dollar Hits 4-day High Against Euro



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





Canadian Dollar Hits 4-day High Against Euro

*Canadian Dollar Rises To 4-day High Of 1.4676 Versus Euro



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





*Canadian Dollar Rises To 4-day High Of 1.4676 Versus Euro

*S. Africa Nov Private Sector Credit +6.98% Y-o-Y Vs. +7.6% In Oct, Consensus +7%



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





*S. Africa Nov Private Sector Credit +6.98% Y-o-Y Vs. +7.6% In Oct, Consensus +7%

*S. Africa Nov. M3 Money Supply +6.3% Y-o-Y Vs. +7.1% In Oct., Consensus +6.55%



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





*S. Africa Nov. M3 Money Supply +6.3% Y-o-Y Vs. +7.1% In Oct., Consensus +6.55%

USD to Take Cues from Fed Rhetoric- Larger AUD Correction on Tap




Talking Points:



- USDOLLAR Struggling to Maintain Bullish Momentum; RSI in Focus



- Larger Australian Dollar Correction on Tap; Lower High on Horizon?



USDOLLAR Daily


Forex_USD_to_Take_Cues_from_Fed_Rhetoric-_Larger_AUD_Correction_on_Tap_body_Picture_3.png, USD to Take Cues from Fed Rhetoric- Larger AUD Correction on Tap


Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0



  • Bullish Bias at Risk on Close Below 10,657 (61.8 expansion)


  • Downside Break in Relative Strength Index to Highlight Downside Targets


  • Interim Resistance: 10,753 (23.6 expansion) to 10,759 (61.8 retracement)


  • Interim Support: 10,657 (61.8 extension)- Closing Basis


The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) extended the decline from the previous week as the data prints fell short of market expectations, and the greenback may weaken further going into the New Year as the Relative Strength Index struggles to maintain the bullish momentum carried over from back in October.



If the bearish break in the RSI continues to take shape, price should follow as it threatens trendline support, and a close below 10,657 (61.8 expansion) would highlight the downside targets for the USDOLLAR as it fails to retrace the decline from back in September.



Nevertheless, with Fed officials scheduled to speak at the American Economic Association’s (AEA) 2014 Annual Meeting later this week, the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may help limit the downside risk for the greenback should the group adopt a less dovish tone for monetary policy, but the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may stick to the sidelines at the January 29 meeting amid the growing threats for disinflation.



Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. Dollar Trade Setups


Forex_USD_to_Take_Cues_from_Fed_Rhetoric-_Larger_AUD_Correction_on_Tap_body_ScreenShot173.png, USD to Take Cues from Fed Rhetoric- Larger AUD Correction on Tap



AUDUSD Daily


Forex_USD_to_Take_Cues_from_Fed_Rhetoric-_Larger_AUD_Correction_on_Tap_body_Picture_1.png, USD to Take Cues from Fed Rhetoric- Larger AUD Correction on Tap


  • Bullish RSI Break to Generate Larger Correction; Looking for Lower High


  • Interim Resistance: 0.8990 Pivot to 0.9000 (38.2 expansion)


  • Interim Support: 0.8780 (78.6 expansion) to 0.8800 Pivot


All four components rallied against the greenback, led by a 0.61 percent advance in the Australian dollar, and the AUDUSD may face a larger correction in the coming days as it threatens the bearish momentum dating back to November.



With that said, a lower high may take shape in January as the pair carves a lower low ahead of 2014, and the long-term bearish trend should continue to take shape next year as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) retains a dovish tone for monetary policy.



In turn, former support around 0.8990 to 0.9000 (38.2 percent Fibonacci expansion) will be largely in focus during the rebound, and we will continue to sell bounces in the exchange rate as the fundamentals and technicals favor the downside.



— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst



To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.



To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.



Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand



Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.



New to FX? Watch this Video



Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums





USD to Take Cues from Fed Rhetoric- Larger AUD Correction on Tap

U.s. Federal Reserve's January Bond-Purchase Plan Includes $10 Bln Cut to Monthly Program -Ny Fed



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





U.s. Federal Reserve's January Bond-Purchase Plan Includes $10 Bln Cut to Monthly Program -Ny Fed

New Zealand Dollar Trades at $0.8204 in Early Asia-Pacific Trade



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





New Zealand Dollar Trades at $0.8204 in Early Asia-Pacific Trade

Australian Dollar Trades at $0.8912 in Early Asia-Pacific Trade



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





Australian Dollar Trades at $0.8912 in Early Asia-Pacific Trade

U.s. Muni Bond Funds Nov Net Cash Outflow $4.46 Bln Vs Oct $5.39 Bln Outlow-Ici



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





U.s. Muni Bond Funds Nov Net Cash Outflow $4.46 Bln Vs Oct $5.39 Bln Outlow-Ici

Dollar Index Down Today, But Expected to Gain on the Year



US dollar banknotes and coinsGreenback is heading lower today against most of its major counterparts. The dollar index might be up on the year, but today it’s pulling back on disappointing data and better news in other regions.



US dollar is struggling today, heading mostly lower as Forex traders assess their positions at the end of the year. The dollar index is a bit lower, following recent economic data. The Institute for Supply Management released its December manufacturing index, showing that it fell to 56.9. This was a bit unexpected, especially following a surprising advance in November.


Also helping other currencies, particularly the euro, is the fact that demand for bonds is rising in the euro zone. Italy recently saw a decent bond sale, with yields dropping.


Even though the dollar index is lower today, though, it is expected to end higher on the year. Overall, the dollar has had a fairly strong year, with the United States economic recovery progressing. Additionally, expectations of a taper of the Federal Reserve asset purchase program are being realized.


At 15:32 GMT the dollar index is down to 80.0530 from the open at 80.2320. EUR/USD is up to 1.3801 from the open at 1.3753. GBP/USD is also higher, gaining to 1.6507 from the open at 1.6474. USD/JPY is down to 105.0845 from the open at 105.1800.


If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the US Dollar,


feel free to post them using the commentary form below.





Dollar Index Down Today, But Expected to Gain on the Year

EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone




EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.3670. The ratings agency Standard and Poor’s downgraded the credit rating of the Eurozone from AAA to AA+ with a stable outlook. On the other hand Fitch Ratings affirmed France’s AA+ rating. The International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for the US Economy and forecasted that the economy would expand at a faster pace next year, because of the positive economic data and the sings of compromise in the US Congress. On the economic side an official report indicated that the Gross Domestic Product in the United States grew at 4.1 percent on an annual basis in the 3rd quarter of 2013. The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Boston Eric Rosengren stated on Friday that he does not agree with the cut of the asset purchase program that FED announced last week. According to Rosengren the unemployment rate in the country is still too high and the inflation is too low. Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.3625 and resistance is seen at 1.3730. The HotForex Traders Board shows that 65 percent of the traders are short on the EURUSD.







EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

Mathematical analysis with Murray lines of USD/CHF for December 30, 2013



Weekly chart:Today the USD/CHF pair continues to support thedownward pressure that still seems to exist and may expect a further fall below1/8 (line yellow) to the line 0/8 (blue line) which would be your last line ofsupport in this time frame.


TheRelative Strength Index RSI is still on 38.70 points at the time of thisanalysis. We might well expect this downward trend may be extended further toits extreme support line -2/8 that is at 0.8545. But we should be cautious inthis area since the market is losing steam and anytime can experience a shiftin the opposite direction.




semanal.png

Daily chart:In the daily chart the retreating vertex is formed bythe two converging trend lines, line 3/8 (green line) below which the trendstill remains bearish. Moreover, having pierced the bottom line of its trendchannel, the price is likely to reach the minimum search again last might wellfind support on the line 0/8 Murrey during the following days we can continueto sell below 0.8911 certainly putting our stop loss about 20 pips on the lineand with a possible gain of about 90 or 100 pips for a minimal risk of 3-1.


1388415003_diario.png


4-hour chart:Finally on the 4 hour-chart the USD/CHF pair rejoinedbelow its weekly pivot, with the same line 2/8 (red line) Murrey lines would beat this time its next resistance which the price would have to overcome toeventually continue to rise, which we consider is unlikely. Moreover, ratherbelieve that the price will continue down to find a floor that could probablybe supported in the shared area between the first weekly support line 0/8Murrey and its last delimited by red sideline support.


1388415146_4horas.png

If you have any questions or suggestions, please contact:
Email:antonio.inga@analytics.instaforex.comDISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation, offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act, whatever its nature.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided on an only for information only and is subject to change without notice, delimiting the company responsibility for decisions originating from the same, and they cause any kind of profit, loss or damage.



Antonio Inga Guerra is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.













Performed by Antonio Inga Guerra, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013





Mathematical analysis with Murray lines of USD/CHF for December 30, 2013

Price & Time: Euro at a Major Cyclical Inflection Point This Week




Talking Points



  • Important cycle turn window seen this week in the Euro


  • USD/JPY nears important long-term retracement


  • Gold just above key support


To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.



Looking for real time Forex analysis throughout the day? Try DailyFX on Demand.



Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:



Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY


PT_DEC_30_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Euro at a Major Cyclical Inflection Point This Week



Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr



  • USD/JPY recorded another multi-year high early on Monday before stalling out just ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the 2007/2011 decline at 105.55


  • Our near-term trend bias remains higher in the exchange rate while over 103.70


  • The 101.55 area looks to be the next major important inflection point for the rate


  • A minor cycle turn window is seen over the next few days


  • Weakness below 103.70 would turn us negative on USD/JPY


USD/JPY Strategy: Favor the long side while over 103.70.



Price & Time Analysis: GOLD


PT_DEC_30_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Euro at a Major Cyclical Inflection Point This Week



Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr



  • XAU/USD has recovered modestly since finding support at the 1×2 Gann angle line of the 2012 high


  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the metal while below the 1×2 Gann angle line of the August high at 1242


  • A convergence of the year’s intraday low and the 161.8% extension of the late October advance near 1182 is a downside pivot


  • A cycle turn window is seen around the end of the week


  • A daily close over 1242 would turn us much more positive on the metal


XAU/USD Strategy: Favor the short side while under 1242.



Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD


PT_DEC_30_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Euro at a Major Cyclical Inflection Point This Week



We have written a lot recently on the importance of this week for EUR/USD from a timing perspective as several long-term cycles converge over the next few days. Friday’s price action and clear failure at the 61.8% retracement of the 2009/2010 decline near 1.3900 makes us wonder whether the peak we have been looking for around this time has come a little early. Complicating the matter somewhat are the holidays and the low turnover they bring. That said, given the rather dramatic extent of Friday’s reversal so close to the turn window we have to assume it marks some sort of crescendo at least on an intraday basis. However, it wouldn’t surprise us to see a few days of higher daily closes this week before the Euro attempts to make its way lower. A key pivot for us on the downside is now the 2nd square root relationship of Friday’s high at 1.3655. A move below this level would be a clear sign that a top of some importance is indeed in place. While a move through 1.3900 would surprise us this week, only strength over 1.3975 after Friday would completely negate the potential for a cycle turn.



To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.



Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved



To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX





Price & Time: Euro at a Major Cyclical Inflection Point This Week

Fund Repatriation and Rate Comments Help Euro



20-euro bill and the map of EuropeAs the year draws to a close, the euro continues to gain ground against its major counterparts. Much of the help for the euro comes from comments that another rate cut isn’t likely to be needed to help keep the economy in recovery mode. However, there is also help for the euro from the fact that banks are repatriating funds.



Euro zone banks are repatriating their funds as the year draws to a close. Another ECB Asset Quality Review is on the horizon, so many banks are shoring up their capital. This is positive for the euro, since the banking system is an integral part of the euro zone’s success.


Forex traders are also paying attention to the latest data releases. Even though it is clear that there are still some difficulties ahead for certain euro zone players, the region as a whole continues with its economic recover. ECB President Mario Draghi recently said that new rate cuts wouldn’t be needed — at least for now — and that is helping the situation to some degree.


At 14:01 GMT EUR/USD is higher, gaining to 1.3787 from the open at 1.3753. EUR/GBP is also up, rising to 0.8359 from the open at 0.8349. EUR/JPY is higher as well, up to 144.9705 from the open at 144.6575.


If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Euro,


feel free to post them using the commentary form below.





Fund Repatriation and Rate Comments Help Euro

Elliott wave analysis of USD/CAD for December 30, 2013



CADifx.png


USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Last week, the USD/CAD pair has been trading upwards, impulsive wave iii (coloured blue) of the biggerwave (c) (coloured red) has been developing. During the Friday’s sessions, we could observe strongascending movements from 1.0618 towards 1.0717 level and in the chart above you can see that we arelabelingthis strong move as extended wave iii (coloured blue). Today this commodity pair did not manageto hold the highs and the price is trading currently around 1.0708 level, we are expecting to see one morepush higher from 1.0685 (38.2% of iv vs iii). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into accountthat wave 5 should retrace 161.8% of wave 4, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 4with take profit at 1.0750 (161.8% of wave 4).To protect long positions we can use invalidation level atthe 1.0670 level.


Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0543 (S2) 1.0580 (S1) 1.0643 (PP) 1.0680 (R1) 1.0743 (R2) 1.0780 (R3) 1.0843


Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is whylong positions at the level of 1.0685 with stop loss at 1.0670 and take profit at 1.0750 are recommended.













Performed by , Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013





Elliott wave analysis of USD/CAD for December 30, 2013

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 30, 2013



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 30, 2013

Forex Strategy: EUR/USD Short Position in Play




To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE



Talking Points



  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Holding short from 1.3757


  • Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting at a reversal lower


  • The first major downside objective is at 1.3209 (23.6% Fibonacci expansion)


Confirm your chart-based trade setups with the Technical Analyzer.


Forex_Strategy_EURUSD_Short_Position_in_Play_body_Picture_5.png, Forex Strategy: EUR/USD Short Position in Play


Weekly Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0



— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak



New to FX? START HERE



For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed





Forex Strategy: EUR/USD Short Position in Play

*Italy Nov. Producer Prices Drop 0.1% On Month Vs. 0.8% Fall In October



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





*Italy Nov. Producer Prices Drop 0.1% On Month Vs. 0.8% Fall In October

*Italy Nov. Producer Prices Decline 1.8% On Year Vs. 2% Fall In October



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





*Italy Nov. Producer Prices Decline 1.8% On Year Vs. 2% Fall In October

*Cyprus Oct Industrial Output Falls 12.5% On Year



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





*Cyprus Oct Industrial Output Falls 12.5% On Year

*Cyprus Oct Industrial Output Prices Down 1.1% On Month



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





*Cyprus Oct Industrial Output Prices Down 1.1% On Month

Slovenia Inflation Falls To 4-Year Low; Import Prices Drop



Slovenia’s consumer price inflation weakened in December to the lowest level in more than four years, data from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia revealed Monday.


The consumer price index moved up 0.7 percent in December from the corresponding month of last year, following a 1.3 percent gain in November. The growth rate was the lowest since October 2009.


Inflation was influenced by a 2.2 percent rise in food and non-alcoholic beverages prices, and a 5.2 percent gain in housing costs and utility prices. Meanwhile, clothing and footwear prices decreased 2.9 percent annually, and transportation costs dropped by 0.3 percent.


Consumer prices decreased 0.9 percent compared to November, when they recorded a 0.1 percent decline, the agency said.


The statistical office further revealed that the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) increased 0.9 percent year-on-year in December. Compared to November, the HICP decreased 0.5 percent.


Separately, the agency said Slovenia’s import price index declined 2 percent annually in November, following the previous month’s 1.5 percent decrease. Sequentially, import prices edged up 0.1 percent, reversing October’s 0.4 percent fall.



Published: 2013-12-30 10:07:00 UTC+00







Slovenia Inflation Falls To 4-Year Low; Import Prices Drop

Sunday, December 29, 2013

EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone




EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.3670. The ratings agency Standard and Poor’s downgraded the credit rating of the Eurozone from AAA to AA+ with a stable outlook. On the other hand Fitch Ratings affirmed France’s AA+ rating. The International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for the US Economy and forecasted that the economy would expand at a faster pace next year, because of the positive economic data and the sings of compromise in the US Congress. On the economic side an official report indicated that the Gross Domestic Product in the United States grew at 4.1 percent on an annual basis in the 3rd quarter of 2013. The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Boston Eric Rosengren stated on Friday that he does not agree with the cut of the asset purchase program that FED announced last week. According to Rosengren the unemployment rate in the country is still too high and the inflation is too low. Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.3625 and resistance is seen at 1.3730. The HotForex Traders Board shows that 65 percent of the traders are short on the EURUSD.







EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

Forex: AUD/USD Technical Analysis ? Reversal Higher in the Cards?




To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE



Talking Points



  • Prices put in a bullish Morning Star candle pattern, hinting a move higher is ahead


  • Above 0.8925-56 (channel top, 14.6% Fib ret.) exposes 0.9040 (23.6% Fib ret.)


  • Below support at 0.8847(Aug’13 low) aims for 0.8736 (23.6% Fib expansion)


Confirm your chart-based trade setups with the Technical Analyzer.


dailyclassics_aud-usd_body_Picture_12.png, Forex: AUD/USD Technical Analysis – Reversal Higher in the Cards?


Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0



— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak



New to FX? START HERE



For live market updates, visit the Real Time News Feed





Forex: AUD/USD Technical Analysis ? Reversal Higher in the Cards?

*UK House Prices +0.5% On Month, +4.4% On Year - Hometrack



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





*UK House Prices +0.5% On Month, +4.4% On Year - Hometrack

Seoul Shares Open up 0.10 Percent



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





Seoul Shares Open up 0.10 Percent

Tokyo's Nikkei Share Average Opens up 0.56 Pct at 16,269.22



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





Tokyo's Nikkei Share Average Opens up 0.56 Pct at 16,269.22

South Korean Won Opens Onshore Trade at 1,055.0 Per Dollar Vs 1,053.9 at Previous Close



Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.


Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.





South Korean Won Opens Onshore Trade at 1,055.0 Per Dollar Vs 1,053.9 at Previous Close

Forex - GBP/USD slips lower in cautious trade


Forex - GBP/USD slips lower in cautious trade

Forex - GBP/USD slips lower in cautious trade


Forex - GBP/USD slips lower in cautious trade

Euro zone Sentix investor confidence hits 18-month high in January


Euro zone Sentix investor confidence hits 18-month high in January

Euro zone Sentix investor confidence hits 18-month high in January


Euro zone Sentix investor confidence hits 18-month high in January

Norwegian unemployment rate rises unexpectedly


Norwegian unemployment rate rises unexpectedly

Crude oil futures lower with U.S. economy in focus


Crude oil futures lower with U.S. economy in focus

European stocks mixed to lower amid U.S. worries; Dax down 0.21%


European stocks mixed to lower amid U.S. worries; Dax down 0.21%

Yen Falls to New Lows over Week



Stacks of the Japanese yen coinsThe Japanese yen continued to show great weakness during the past year even as some of news should have been supportive for the currency. It looks like policy makers have made the currency rather unattractive for investors, which actually makes it easier for the central bank to achieve its inflation target.


There were quite a few positive events for the yen. Inflation accelerated, coming nearer to the 2 percent target. The economic outlook was relatively good for the yen too, but the currency did not profit from it, perhaps because some of policy makers were concerned about slowing growth.


Overall, the Japanese currency was very weak not only over the past week, but also during the whole year. Such weakness is likely to persist in the next year as the government and policy makers want to boost inflation and revive inflation, making weaker currency their ally in this endeavor.


USD/JPY rose from 103.99 to 105.16, the highest weekly close since September 2010. EUR/JPY was up from 142.17 to 144.49, while the weekly high was at 145.67. GBP/JPY climbed from 169.87 to 173.21.


If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Japanese Yen,


feel free to post them using the commentary form below.





Yen Falls to New Lows over Week

Saturday, December 28, 2013

EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone




EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.3670. The ratings agency Standard and Poor’s downgraded the credit rating of the Eurozone from AAA to AA+ with a stable outlook. On the other hand Fitch Ratings affirmed France’s AA+ rating. The International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for the US Economy and forecasted that the economy would expand at a faster pace next year, because of the positive economic data and the sings of compromise in the US Congress. On the economic side an official report indicated that the Gross Domestic Product in the United States grew at 4.1 percent on an annual basis in the 3rd quarter of 2013. The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Boston Eric Rosengren stated on Friday that he does not agree with the cut of the asset purchase program that FED announced last week. According to Rosengren the unemployment rate in the country is still too high and the inflation is too low. Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.3625 and resistance is seen at 1.3730. The HotForex Traders Board shows that 65 percent of the traders are short on the EURUSD.







EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone




EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.3670. The ratings agency Standard and Poor’s downgraded the credit rating of the Eurozone from AAA to AA+ with a stable outlook. On the other hand Fitch Ratings affirmed France’s AA+ rating. The International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for the US Economy and forecasted that the economy would expand at a faster pace next year, because of the positive economic data and the sings of compromise in the US Congress. On the economic side an official report indicated that the Gross Domestic Product in the United States grew at 4.1 percent on an annual basis in the 3rd quarter of 2013. The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Boston Eric Rosengren stated on Friday that he does not agree with the cut of the asset purchase program that FED announced last week. According to Rosengren the unemployment rate in the country is still too high and the inflation is too low. Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.3625 and resistance is seen at 1.3730. The HotForex Traders Board shows that 65 percent of the traders are short on the EURUSD.







EURUSD remained stable after S&P downgraded the AAA credit rating of the Eurozone

Momentum Scalping in the FX Market




Talking Points:



  • This is an archived webinar from the Live Classroom of DailyFX PLUS, in which I trade my scalping strategy in live conditions


  • This webinar was recorded on December 17, 2013; the day before the FOMC Taper announcement


  • After showing the strategy, and how I trigger positions; we look at how a profitable position can be managed as the market moves in the ideal direction.


— Written by James Stanley



James is available on Twitter @JStanleyFX



To join James Stanley’s distribution list, please click here.



Are you looking for more Forex Education? DailyFX University is free, robust, and full of education.



Would you like to get better with Price Action? Please feel free to take our 15 minute course on the topic. You’ll first be asked to sign the guestbook, which is completely free; and then you’ll be met with the video-based lesson via Brainshark:



Price Action Presentation via Brainshark



We’ve recently begun to record a series of Forex Videos on a variety of topics. We’d greatly appreciate any feedback or input you might be able to offer on these Forex Videos:



EURUSD



Secrets of Profitable TradersUse the News





Momentum Scalping in the FX Market