Wednesday, December 31, 2014

China NBS Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (50.1) in December

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China NBS Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (50.1) in December

South Korea Dec Export Growth Prelim* Increase to +3.7 % (fcast 0.8 %) Vs Prev -2.1 %

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South Korea Dec Export Growth Prelim* Increase to +3.7 % (fcast 0.8 %) Vs Prev -2.1 %

South Korea Dec Import Growth Prelim* Increase to -0.9 % (fcast -3.7 %) Vs Prev -4.0 %

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South Korea Dec Import Growth Prelim* Increase to -0.9 % (fcast -3.7 %) Vs Prev -4.0 %

South Korea Dec Trade Balance Prelim* Increase to +5.8 Bln $ Vs Prev 5.51 Bln $

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South Korea Dec Trade Balance Prelim* Increase to +5.8 Bln $ Vs Prev 5.51 Bln $

Fxwirepro News closed for the New Year Holiday; the News Desk Will Reopen at 2000gmt Thursday

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Fxwirepro News closed for the New Year Holiday; the News Desk Will Reopen at 2000gmt Thursday

For the Quarter the Dow Rose 4.6 Pct; S&P 500 up 4.4 Pct; Nasdaq Comp up 5.4 Pct

ECB won by targeting Foreign Reserves – SG

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ECB won by targeting Foreign Reserves – SG

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FXStreet (Guatemala) – Sebastien Galy, analyst at Societe Generale explained that the EUR/USD is now most likely a sell on rallies.

Key Quotes:

“…as foreign reserves reallocate into the higher yielding UST curve helping to cap the back end and likely investing in some key EM curves”.

“This confirms that the ECB won the game on EUR/USD by changing the dynamic of reserve diversification into EUR which had kept EUR very expensive and deflationary pressures considerable”.

“Reserve selling should pressure EUR/USD lower the prospect of a Greek election increases credit risk in the Eurozone”.

“It also increases the odds of ECB easing as does ever lower oil prices. Faced with these twin hammers on EUR reserves, the amount of EUR selling may remain considerable helping the downward EUR/USD trend”.

“Compensating this partly are hopefully rising export revenues as the EUR weaken. The Japanese experience suggests considerable patience on this mechanism”.

ECB won by targeting Foreign Reserves – SG

AUD/USD: Key levels for 2015

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AUD/USD: Key levels for 2015

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FXStreet (Guatemala) – AUD/USD is trading at 0.8175, down -0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8218 and low at 0.8159.

AUD/USD is consolidating back below the 0.82 handle after a series of last minute bouts of demand came into the final sessions of the year, taking the pair up to highs of 0.8215. AUD/USD was short lived on the 0.82 handle and has come off with aggressive offers penetrating the downside. The markets are thin with a half day in European trading and lightly manned desks across the US as we head in towards the closing hours of 2014 trading.

The markets will bounce back to full mode in the first full week of the year though with the FOMC minutes and Non Farm Payrolls taking the main stage. To the downside, technically, the 2010 low at 0.8068 and bringing in the 0.7950/30 double Fibo as bears target. For the upside, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank, eyes initial resistance as the Imoku 1 resistance at 0.8242. Through here, there could be an attempt on the downtrend at 0.8510. Key resistance remains to be seen at the October high at 0.8911.

AUD/USD: Key levels for 2015

NZD/USD slides below 0.7800

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NZD/USD slides below 0.7800

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FXStreet (Córdoba) – NZD/USD continued to decline during the American session and printed a fresh daily low at 0.7791. Currently is hovering around 0.7800, 25 pips below yesterday’s closing price.

The pair is about to post the fourth consecutive monthly close around 0.7800, as it continues to consolidate after reversing above 0.8800 back in july.

Earlier in december the pair bottomed at 0.7606, hitting a 2-year low but then managed to bounced to the upside supported by the latest RBNZ statement.

NZD/USD slides below 0.7800

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change registered at -26B above expectations (-37B) in December 26

EUR/USD falls below 1.2100, ends the year on the back foot

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EUR/USD falls below 1.2100, ends the year on the back foot

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FXStreet (Córdoba) – The EUR/USD’s selloff extended to fresh cycle lows sub 1.2100 in thin trading on New Year’s Eve, putting the euro on track for a 12% annual decline.

EUR/USD pierced the 1.21 mark and hit a low of 1.2096, last seen July 2012, as the dollar received a final boost to bid farewell the 2014. The shared currency remains vulnerable amid divergent ECB/FOMC monetary policy outlooks coupled with political uncertainty in Greece, with the 2012 low of 1.2041 coming closer into sight.

At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2105, recording a 0.41% loss on the day. At the same time, the pair is headed for its sixth monthly loss in a row, having fallen all the way from this year peak of 1.3993 struck in May.

EUR/USD falls below 1.2100, ends the year on the back foot

EUR/JPY consolidated through moves in the greenback

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EUR/JPY consolidated through moves in the greenback

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FXStreet (Guatemala) – EUR/JPY is trading at 144.98, down -0.22% on the day, having posted a daily high at 145.61 and low at 144.82.

EUR/JPY is consolidated through the greenback as its rallies against the Euro, printing new yearly lows into the 1.2000’s, and the Yen is punished back up towards 120.00 vs the US dollar.

Spikes over thin trading have been the theme over the last number of sessions of the year, but significantly, the spikes are hitting key technical levels that will be paid attention to when full markets return and maybe indicating the apatite for a stronger greenback into 2015. The EUR/JPY cross will also be affected by the domestic policies of the ECB and Abenomics for Japan and associated risk events such as the Greek elections and QE. This offers the Yen some support in an environment of weak fundamentals that are offset by the supportive impact of recurring periods of risk aversion, as Eric Theoret, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank explained.

Technically, however, EUR/JPY remains under pressure and changes hands in bearish territory. The cross is on course to test the 2-month support line at 143.90, as signified by Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank, and notes that the 55-day ma reinforces this at 142.78.

EUR/JPY consolidated through moves in the greenback

EUR/GBP sets 2014 low during last session of the year

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EUR/GBP sets 2014 low during last session of the year

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FXStreet (Córdoba) – EUR/GBP extended losses during the last trading session of the year and hit its lowest level since July 2012, as the euro weakened across the board.

The shared currency is among worst performers Wednesday, falling to multi-month lows versus major competitors. EUR/GBP broke below the 0.7770 support area and stretched as low as 0.7759 before finding some respite.

At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7765, recording a 0.56% decline on the day and on track to post a 6% annual loss.

Expectations the European Central Bank could launch a full-blown QE program early in 2015 have been weighing on the shared currency that ends the year on the back foot.

EUR/GBP sets 2014 low during last session of the year

USD/JPY rallies to new high sub 120.00

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USD/JPY rallies to new high sub 120.00

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FXStreet (Guatemala) – USD/JPY is trading at 119.82, up 0.24% on the day, having posted a daily high at 119.95 and low at 119.25.

On a strong greenback, the USD/JPY has rallied and scored a new high for the week on a series of bids. The pair was initially offered on a series of US data that came in mixed. However, the pair eventually caught a bounce from 119.40 and broke resistance at 119.50/60, putting the Yen on the back foot and brings 120.00 back into view.

However, with European markets closed on half day, we are in thin trading until full markets return in the New Year. We will kick off with FOMC and Non Farm Payrolls in the first full week of the year, looking for positive signals and indications of timings of a first rate hike from the Fed.

USD/JPY rallies to new high sub 120.00

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change registered at -0.067M, below expectations (0.2M) in December 26

EUR/NZD analysis for December 31, 2014

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EUR/NZD analysis for December 31, 2014

Daily analysis of USDX for December 31, 2014

On the daily chart, the USDX has made a pullback on the level of 90.37 to form a higher high pattern, since this instrument has formed a fractal below the low levels played a couple of days ago, which would give some strength to the USDX. However, due to so pronounced movement that has had the USDX in the medium term, this instrument could fall to the level of 88.63.

Dailychart’s resistance levels: 90.40 / 93.44

Dailychart’s support levels: 88.63 / 87.35

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In the last hours, the USDX has just tried to do a bullish consolidation above the 90.01 level, but without success. These movements have only a very solid technical explanation that the volume of trading of the New Year’s eve is being present, because the USDX has low range movements and MACD indicator is a proof of this, as it is in the neutral territory.

H1 chart’s resistance levels: 90.01 / 90.26

H1 chart’s support levels: 89.76 / 89.51

Show full picture Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 90.01, take profit is at 90.26, and stop loss is at 89.75.

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Daily analysis of USDX for December 31, 2014

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 31, 2014

Gold analysis for December 31, 2014

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Gold analysis for December 31, 2014

Euro Down As Greek Worries Linger

The euro traded lower against its major opponents in European deals on Wednesday, as the Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras dissolved the Parliament to conduct early elections, that would determine Greece’s future in the Eurozone.

New elections will be conducted on January 25, some 18 months ahead of the schedule.

Samaras warned that new polls would determine whether Greece stays in Europe and the upcoming elections “are happening due to self-interest.”

Riskier assets faced pressure since Monday on concerns that a victory to rival Syriza party would roll back measures required under the IMF-EU bailout of the country, thereby further weakening the eurozone economy.

In an interview with a Germany daily, the European Central Bank’s chief economist Peter Praet said that lower oil prices could depress inflation and raise scope for additional quantitative easing.

With lower oil prices, inflation is likely to remain negative during a substantial part of 2015, he told Boersen-Zeitung. “Inflation expectations are extremely fragile,” and “we cannot simply “look through,” Praet said.

Moving away from an early high of 1.2169 against the U.S. dollar, the euro edged down to 1.2142. The next possible support for the euro-greenback pair is seen around the 1.20 zone.

The euro slipped to 0.7782 against the pound, a level not seen since September 29. Continuation of the euro’s downtrend may take it to a support around the 0.766 mark.

Housing equity withdrawal by individuals in the U.K. decreased further in the third quarter, data from the Bank of England showed.

Housing equity withdrawal, or HEW, fell to -GBP 10.87 billion in the third quarter from -GBP 10.56 billion in the second quarter.

The euro eased to 144.97 against the yen, from an early high of 145.57, and held steady thereafter. If the euro slides further, it may find support around the 144.00 level.

The single currency eased back to 1.2021 against the Swiss franc before holding steady afterwards. Further weakness may see the euro testing support around the 1.20 region.

The common currency weakened to more than a 3-week low of 1.4801 against the Australian dollar and moved sideways shortly thereafter. On the downside, the euro may find support around the 1.47 mark.

The European unit dropped to 1.4058 against the Canadian dollar, its lowest since December 8, from 1.4113 hit at Tuesday’s close. The euro is likely to find support near the 1.39 zone.

Looking ahead, U.S. pending home sales for November are due shortly.

Published: 2014-12-31 13:53:00 UTC+00

Euro Down As Greek Worries Linger

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rebound More Than Expected

After reporting an unexpected drop in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the previous week, the Labor Department released a report on Wednesday showing that initial jobless claims rebounded by more than expected in the week ended December 27th.

The Labor Department said initial jobless claims climbed to 298,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 281,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 290,000 from the 280,000 originally reported for the previous week.

Published: 2014-12-31 13:39:00 UTC+00

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rebound More Than Expected

Dollar Little Changed After Weekly Jobless Claims

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Dollar Little Changed After Weekly Jobless Claims

*U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Climb To 298,000 In Week Ended 12/27

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*U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Climb To 298,000 In Week Ended 12/27

Dollar Advances Ahead Of Weekly Jobless Claims

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Dollar Advances Ahead Of Weekly Jobless Claims

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 31, 2014

General overview for 31/12/2014 08:40 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the last wave to the downside is still being expected here to complete the overall complex and time consuming corrective cycle in wave 4 purple. The projected target is at the level of 1.1558, but the price has bounced from the intraday support at the level of 1.1588, and now the corrective structure might be completed. Confirmation of this scenario comes with the breakout of the intraday resistance at the level of 1.1649, otherwise, the market will keep trading inside the neutral range zone. Please notice that any breakout above the level of 1.1665 is bullish and further high prices should be expected.

Support/Resistance:

1.1712 – WR2

1.1670 – WR1

1.1650 – Intraday Resistance

1.1623 – Weekly Pivot

1.1588 – Intraday Support

1.1581 – WS1

1.1558 – Technical Support

1.1535 – WS2

1.1500 – Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

Buy orders opened from the level of 1.1633 should be still kept open. The SL orders should be placed below the level of 1.1588 and TP at the level of 1.1672 with a possible extension upside to the level of 1.1733.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 31, 2014

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 31, 2014

General overview for 31/12/2014 08:20 CET

The yesterday’s intraday support has been taken out, the market has made a fresh new lows but it failed so far to follow through with the decline. The nea-term outlook remains the same with two possible scenarios available. The main scenario indicates a completed corrective cycle in wave XX brown, and another leg to the downside is being expected to complete the last wave Z brown in wave 2 red. The alternate outlook indicates an unfinished wave XX brown in a shape of an irregular flat correction, where wave (a) and (b) blue are done and now wave (c) blue to the upside is anticipated. The confirmation of the main scenario comes with a rejection of the level of 146.43. On the other hand, the confirmation of the alternative outlook comes with a violation of the level of 146.43. Any new low below the level of 144.97 supports the main scenario.

Support/Resistance:

149.76 – Technical Resistance|Swing High|

148.35 – WR3

148.22 – Technical Resistance

147.74 – WR2

147.17 – WR1

147.13 – Intraday Resistance

146.54 – Weekly Pivot

146.44 – Intraday Resistance|Key Level|

145.92 – WS1

145.70 – Technical Support

145.39 – WS2

144.78 – Intraday Support|Swing Low|

144.82 – WS3

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should refrain from trading for now. Please use tight SL orders as the end of the year liquidity is low and the market moves might get very sharp and sudden in either direction.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 31, 2014

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 31, 2014

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When the European market opens, the economic calendar lacks any reports. However, the US will release the economic data too such as the Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims, Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, and Chicago PMI. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2216.

Strong Resistance:1.2209

Original Resistance: 1.2197.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2185.

Target Inner Area: 1.2156.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2127.

Original Support: 1.2115.

Strong Support: 1.2103.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2096.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Arief Makmur is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 31, 2014

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 31, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will not release any news but the US will release some economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims, Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, and Chicago PMI. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

Resistance. 3: 119.90.

Resistance. 2: 119.67.

Resistance. 1: 119.45.

Support. 1: 119.15.

Support. 2: 118.92.

Support. 3: 118.68.

Arief Makmur is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 31, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for December 31, 2014

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD went further south yesterday, going below the support line at 1.2150. The price is currently above the support line, but it may go below it again, closing below it. The eventual target for bears is at the support line at 1.2100.

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USD/CHF: This market went above the resistance level at 0.9900 briefly before closing below it. It is expected that the price would go above that resistance level again, closing above it. The bias in the market is bullish and with just a movement of over 100 pips, the USD could reach parity with the CHF.

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GBP/USD: The Cable tested the accumulation territory at 1.5500 before the current upward bounce in the market. The upwards bounce is supposed to be transient, not going above the distribution territory at 1.5600. It is likely that the accumulation territory at 1.5500 could be tested again: the price could even go below it.

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USD/JPY: The sudden stamina in the JPY caused this currency trading instrument to go south on Tuesday. The southward movement was strong enough to lead to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. The price is now below the EMA 21 and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. A movement below the demand level at 119.00 would signify further weakness in the market.

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EUR/JPY: The sudden strength in the Yen has caused the EUR/JPY pair (and some JPY pairs) to go downwards by around 200 pips on Tuesday. The demand zone at 145.00 has been tested and with further weakness in the market, the demand zone would be tested again and possibly breached to the downside.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 31, 2014

Gold Prices Aiming Higher, SPX 500 Chart Setup Warns of Reversal

Talking Points:

US Dollar May Break Downward From Consolidation Range

SPX 500 Technical Positioning Warns a Downturn is Ahead

Crude Oil at Risk of Deeper Losses, Gold Prices Aim Higher

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have flat-lined after hitting a five-year high, with negative RSI divergence warning a downturn may be ahead. Near-term resistance is at 11577, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 11648. Alternatively, a turn below the 11489-522 area marked by the December 8 top and the 23.6% Fib clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 11434.

Gold Prices Aiming Higher, SPX 500 Chart Setup Warns of Reversal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have produced a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower is ahead. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. A daily close below the 2067.90-79.60 area marked by the December 5 high and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion exposes the 23.6% level at 2029.80. Alternatively, a push above the 50% Fibat 2098.60 targets the 61.8% expansion at 2129.40.

Gold Prices Aiming Higher, SPX 500 Chart Setup Warns of Reversal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed higher anew after a brief respite, clearing resistance marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1196.08. Buyers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 1211.85, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% Fib at 1224.59. Alternatively, a reversal back below 1196.08 targets the December 22 lowat 1170.59.

Gold Prices Aiming Higher, SPX 500 Chart Setup Warns of Reversal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are aiming to extend losses after breaking support at 58.20, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Sellers now aim to challenge the 38.2% level at 54.83, with a further push beneath that targeting the 50% Fib at 52.10. Alternatively, a reversal back above 58.20 aims for the December 18 high at 63.65.

Gold Prices Aiming Higher, SPX 500 Chart Setup Warns of Reversal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

Gold Prices Aiming Higher, SPX 500 Chart Setup Warns of Reversal

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

US labor market gaining momentum heading into 2015 – Nomura

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US labor market gaining momentum heading into 2015 – Nomura

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FXStreet (Barcelona) – The Nomura Team explains that the increase in labor differential from -12.5 to -10.6 signals that the US labor market is gaining strong momentum heading into 2015.

Key Quotes

“Consumer confidence increased to 92.6 in December from a revised 91.0 (previously reported as 88.7) in November. With the upward revision to November?s headline figure, the index has remained above 90 in the last quarter of 2014.”

“Most of the gains were led by an uptick in the present situation index, which moved to 98.6 from 93.7, while the expectations index softened to 88.5 from 89.3.”

“The labor differential (percent of respondents stating jobs are plentiful less respondents stating jobs are hard to get) increased to -10.6 from -12.5, a good sign that the labor market is gaining solid momentum heading into 2015.”

“Also, consumers were relatively more positive about business conditions than last month and fewer consumers expect a decrease in income in coming months. Taken together, points to a consumer base poised to spend.”

US labor market gaining momentum heading into 2015 – Nomura

USD/CHF advances, USD bulls back in charge

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USD/CHF advances, USD bulls back in charge

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FXStreet (Mumbai) – The US dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc in the early European morning, as the US dollar bulls jumped back into the bids, after a brief reversal seen yesterday.

Currently, the USD/CHF pair trades 0.09% higher at 0.9895 on the day, after having hit fresh day’s high at 0.9902 levels, some minutes ago. USD/CHF continued its uptrend on broad based US dollar strength against its peers. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against basket of six major currencies, advanced to trade at 90.32 levels, up from day’s low hit at 90.16.

USD/CHF Levels to consider

To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.9920 (Today’s high) levels and above which it could extend gains to 0.9950 (Aug 2012 High) levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.9884 (5-DMA) levels and below that at 0.9868 (10-DMA) levels.

USD/CHF advances, USD bulls back in charge

Greater Chances of Sovereign QE – hints ECB's Praet

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Greater Chances of Sovereign QE – hints ECB’s Praet

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FXStreet (Mumbai) – Peter Praet, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Chief Economist signaled in an interview by the German publication that ECB policymakers may soon consider large-scale asset purchases, including sovereign bonds, at their next meeting on January, 22.

Key Quotes:

Praet warned that euro-area inflation is expected to drop below zero “for a longer period” in 2015 amid falling oil prices, and the Governing Council “cannot simply look through” that.

Inflation expectations are now “extremely fragile” and the danger of following effects is “higher than usual,”

He also added the ECB must “not be paralyzed” by the problems a quantitative easing (QE) program might bring. Sovereign bonds are “the only kind of asset for which there is a significant market volume.”

With reference to Greece snap elections, Praet commented, “the rise of political parties opposed to structural adjustments is a warning signal”. “Populists in some countries promise fast and simple solutions but their proposals would be a complete disaster.”

Greater Chances of Sovereign QE – hints ECB's Praet

JPY gains against most of its peers – Varengold

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JPY gains against most of its peers – Varengold

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FXStreet (Barcelona) – The Varengold Bank Research Team notes that JPY gained versus most of its major peers after the BoJ confirmed increasing the length of maturity of government bonds it buys, gaining more than 1% against the USD.

Key Quotes

“Japan´s currency gained versus all but three of its 31 major peers as the Bank of Japan said it will increase the length of maturity of government bonds it buys. It appreciated 1 percent to 119.48 per dollar after adding as much as 1.5 percent, the biggest gain since December 16. It advanced 1 percent to 145.25 versus the euro.”

“The yen gained after BOJ said in a statement it will buy at least 1.25 trillion yen of debt due in more than 10 years per month, up from a minimum target of 650 billion yen.”

“The central bank will continue to purchase between 8 trillion yen to 12 trillion yen of government securities in total each month, it said.”

“The 18-nation common currency traded at $1.2156 after falling to $1.2124, the weakest since July 2012.”

JPY gains against most of its peers – Varengold

EUR/USD steadies near day’s low

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EUR/USD steadies near day’s low

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FXStreet (Mumbai) – The single currency traded flat versus the US dollar, heading towards the European opening bells, wiping out gains seen in the early Asian morning.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair trades unchanged at 1.2153 close to daily lows of 1.2151 levels, retreating from intraday high of 1.2170 hit in the Asian morning.
EUR/USD is seen trading in a narrow range in absence of fresh triggers as traders are away on year-end holidays. The Euro gave up previous gains as the US dollar regained footing against major counterparts. The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades now at 90.32, up 0.06% on the day, having previously posted days low at 90.16.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.2170 (Today’s High) levels, above which gains could be extended to 1.2188 (Dec 30 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.21 levels, below which it could extend losses to 1.2041 (July 2012) levels.

EUR/USD steadies near day’s low

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Range May Break Downward

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Talking Points:

US Dollar Technical Strategy: Holding Long via Mirror Trader Basket **

Support: 11489, 11434, 11346

Resistance:11577, 11648, 11719

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index has flat-lined after hitting a five-year high, with negative RSI divergence warning a downturn may be ahead. Near-term resistance is at 11577, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 11648. Alternatively, a turn below the 11489-522 area marked by the December 8 top and the 23.6% Fib clears the way for a test of the 14.6% expansion at 11434.

We remain broadly bullish on the US Dollar against its leading counterparts in line with ourlong-term fundamental outlook. As such, we remain long via theMirror Trader US Dollar currency basket.

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Range May Break Downward

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Range May Break Downward

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Yen Rallies Most in Two Weeks

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Talking Points:

USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat

Support: 119.41, 117.91, 115.48

Resistance: 120.82, 121.91, 123.88

The US Dollar recoiled downward against the Japanese Yen, recording the largest daily decline in two weeks. Near-term support is at 119.41, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 117.91. Alternatively, a reversal above the December 23 high at 120.82 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fib expansion at 121.91.

Prices are too close to support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bullish reversal signal suggests that taking up the long side is premature. With that in mind, we will remain flat for now.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Yen Rallies Most in Two Weeks

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Yen Rallies Most in Two Weeks

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Stalling at Trend Line Support

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Talking Points:

EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat

Support: 1.2136, 1.2080, 1.1929

Resistance:1.2173, 1.2249, 1.2324

The Euro has stalled after sinking to a 28-month low against the US Dollar, with prices waiting for a new directional catalyst. A daily close below falling trend line support at 1.2136 exposes the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 1.2080. Alternatively, a reversal above the 61.8% Fib at 1.2173 clears the way for a test of the 50% expansion at 1.2249.

Prices are too close to support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, we will continue to stand aside until an attractive selling opportunity in line with our long-term outlook presents itself.

Add these technical levels directly to your charts with our Support/Resistance Wizard app!

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Stalling at Trend Line Support

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Stalling at Trend Line Support

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Struggling to Clear Range Top

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Talking Points:

USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat

Support: 0.9835, 0.9781, 0.9727

Resistance:0.9902, 1.0010, 1.0118

The US Dollar is in consolidation mode below the 0.99 figure having established a 28-month high against the Swiss Franc. Near-term resistance is at 0.9902, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 100% level at 1.0010. Alternatively, a reversal below the 61.8% Fib at 0.9835 opens the door for a test of the 50% expansion at 0.9781.

Prices are too close to resistance to justify entering long from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bearish reversal signal suggests that taking up the short side is premature. With that in mind, we will remain flat for now.

Add these technical levels directly to your charts with our Support/Resistance Wizard app!

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Struggling to Clear Range Top

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Struggling to Clear Range Top

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Candle Setup Hints at Gains

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Talking Points:

GBP/USD Technical Strategy: Flat

Support: 1.5493, 1.5409, 1.5293

Resistance: 1.5636, 1.5730, 1.5881

The British Pound may be preparing to turn higher against the US Dollar after prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 1.5636, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the intersection of channel top resistance and the 23.6% level at 1.5730. Alternatively, a reversal below channel floor support at 1.5493 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1.5409.

While entering long is tempting from a purely technical perspective, we will tactically opt to stand aside. Thin pre-holiday liquidity conditions hint follow-through on current price action may prove lackluster and we will wait for the onset of 2015 before committing to a directional bias.

Add these technical levels directly to your charts with our Support/Resistance Wizard app!

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Candle Setup Hints at Gains

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Candle Setup Hints at Gains

Singapore Bank Lending Rises In November

Bank lending in Singapore grew in November after remaining flat for two successive months, figures from the Monetary Authority of Singapore showed Wednesday.

Bank lending rose 0.6 percent month-over-month in November.

Domestic bank loans rose to S$ 608.2 billion in November from S$ 604.4 billion in October.

This was driven by a 0.8 percent rebound in business loans. Consumer loans climbed 0.4 percent in November.

Annually, lending increased 7.5 percent from S$ 565.8 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year.

Published: 2014-12-31 03:15:00 UTC+00

Singapore Bank Lending Rises In November

Pound Rises To 2-day High Against U.S. Dollar

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Pound Rises To 2-day High Against U.S. Dollar

Indonesia's Oil Minister says subsidised Fuel Prices Will be Market Driven from Jan 1

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Indonesia's Oil Minister says subsidised Fuel Prices Will be Market Driven from Jan 1

Klarity Fx: We Could See Loonie Go Back down Toward C$1.12

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Klarity Fx: We Could See Loonie Go Back down Toward C$1.12

S.korea C.bank Chief: Keeping Monetary Policy tied Only to Inflation Target 'undesirable'

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S.korea C.bank Chief: Keeping Monetary Policy tied Only to Inflation Target 'undesirable'

AUD/USD bulls taking control up to 0.82 handle

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AUD/USD bulls taking control up to 0.82 handle

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FXStreet (Guatemala) – AUD/USD is trading at 0.8210, up 0.37% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8217 and low at 0.8175.

AUD/USD has spiked higher on the back of the HSBC manufacturing PMI coming in at 49.6 and beating the forecast of slightly lower at 49.5. Otherwise the Aussie has been generally bid over the weakness in the greenback in the last trading sessions of the year. Spikes have been the theme in the remaining sessions and a period of consolidation is likely as we close in on 2015.

AUD/USD noteworthy levels

Current price is 0.8211, with resistance ahead at 0.8217 (Daily High), 0.8245 (Daily 20 SMA), 0.8252 (Daily Classic R2) and 0.8299 (Daily Classic R3).
Next support to the downside can be found at 0.8205 (Yesterday’s High), 0.8180 (Daily Open), 0.8177 (Hourly 20 EMA).

AUD/USD bulls taking control up to 0.82 handle

China HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.6, above expectations (49.5) in December

NZD/USD finishing the year pushing bears back

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NZD/USD finishing the year pushing bears back

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FXStreet (Guatemala) – NZD/USD is trading at 0.7839, up 0.19% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7844 and low at 0.7825.

NZD/USD remains consolidated on the 0.78 handle as we move over for the New Years celebrations, post a last effort spike on the back of broad dollar weakness over night putting the pair back into neutral. The markets are especially thin and we are settled and steady awaiting full markets to return in the New Year. Technically, the pair is through the descending resistance established in November highs.

The main theme of 2015 will remain with the divergences of the global Central Banks and the RBNZ is one of a few, along with the Fed, that are tipped for rate rises. However, the race is determined already that the Fed ahead of the RBNZ on the curve where inflation is not something that is thought to be a concern for the RBNZ until well into late 2015.

NZD/USD finishing the year pushing bears back

AUD/USD breaking key levels; consolidated

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AUD/USD breaking key levels; consolidated

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FXStreet (Guatemala) – AUD/USD is trading at 0.8184, up 0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8191 and low at 0.8175.

AUD/USD remains in a tight range in New Years Eve trading and a period of consolidation can now be expected in thin trading and a lack of impetus until we move over to 2015. When we do, the greenback is sighted to be under demand while the Aussie will be weighed upon on a dovish outlook from the RBA for the year ahead.

For now, the pair is contained by the 38.2% Dec 11 low at 0.8200 but trades above the 200 hr DMA on the break in overall dollar weakness overnight. This is a significant move, albeit in thin trading in thin markets on a spike, but nevertheless, it is a technical level that will likely be paid attention to when markets return properly.

AUD/USD breaking key levels; consolidated

Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) meets expectations (0.5%) in November

Pound Gains vs. Dollar, Retreats vs. Yen

Stack of UK coins on GB pound bills The Great Britain pound gained today against the US dollar on the back of relatively positive housing data. Gains were limited though, and the currency dropped versus the Japanese yen.

The Nationwide House Price Index rose 0.2 percent in December. While it was not a bad result, the increase was smaller than the November’s 0.3 percent. HPI growth slowed on an annual basis as well. Despite the small gain of the pound on the dollar, analysts do not expect the rally to persist as the US currency has enough reasons to outperform the sterling.

GBP/USD rose from 1.5515 to 1.5539 as of 12:07 GMT today. GBP/JPY sank from 187.20 to 185.57.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Great Britain Pound,

feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Pound Gains vs. Dollar, Retreats vs. Yen

Israel’s Central Bank Maintains Key Interest Rate, Shekel Down vs. Dollar

A sheet of 100-shekel banknotes The Israeli new shekel fell against the US dollar today even though the nation’s central banks decided to keep its main interest rate unchanged at yesterday’s monetary policy meeting as the outlook for Israel’s economy was relatively positive. The currency gained on the euro.

The Bank of Israel decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.25 percent. It looks like the previous interest rate cuts had an effect and the nation’s economy is on track for recovery. Indeed, the bank noted in the statement:

Indicators which became available this month point to a recovery in activity after Operation Protective Edge, with the economy’s expected return to its path of growth from before the operation expressed in a relatively high growth rate in the coming quarters.

Still, the economy was heading to slowest annual growth since 2009 as gross domestic product shrank for third quarter. The economic decline occurred as the conflict in Gaza scared away tourists and hurt production. As a result, experts do not expect the central bank to raise rates next year.

USD/ILS rose from 3.9090 to 3.9135 as of 4:32 GMT today, reaching the high of 3.9270 intraday. EUR/ILS dropped from 4.7730 to 4.7455.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Israeli New Shekel,

feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Israel’s Central Bank Maintains Key Interest Rate, Shekel Down vs. Dollar

AUD/USD a sell on the rally?

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AUD/USD a sell on the rally?

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FXStreet (Guatemala) – AUD/USD is trading at 0.8192, up 0.73% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8201 and low at 0.8122.

The markets are choppy in thin markets and spikes developing. In the AUD, we are a starting to reverse the leg up from 0.8120 and meeting supply at the highs. The gold price has also rallied $23.00 per oz spot, WTI was gaining a dollar per barrel, and the greenback is down across the board. This may be stacking up to be a sell on the rally opportunity with a phase of consolidation underway below the high.

AUD/USD noteworthy levels

With spot trading at 0.8195, we can see next resistance ahead at 0.8201, 0.8219 (Daily Classic R3), 0.8252 (Daily 20 SMA), 0.8503 (Monthly High) and 0.8784 (Daily 100 SMA). Support below can be found at 0.8192 (Daily Classic R2), 0.8165 (Weekly Classic R3), 0.8156 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.8120 and 0.8085.

AUD/USD a sell on the rally?

USD/JPY makes a fresh 2-week low at 118.85 – FXStreet

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USD/JPY makes a fresh 2-week low at 118.85 – FXStreet

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FXStreet (Barcelona) – Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, shares that the USD/JPY pair fell below the 119 handle to make a fresh 2-week low at 118.85 before rebounding back.

Key Quotes

“The USD/JPY fell to a fresh 2-week low of 118.85, following the pessimism among stocks traders. The decline began in Asia with Nikkei slide, and extended into US opening.”

“The 1 hour chart shows that indicators maintain a strong bearish slope despite in oversold territory, while price broke below 100 and 200 SMAs, stalling its decline a few pips above the 50% retracement of the latest daily decline at 118.70 the immediate support.”

“In the 4 hours chart the technical picture is also bearish according to indicators, although buying interest may surge on a test of the mentioned 118.70 support.”

USD/JPY makes a fresh 2-week low at 118.85 – FXStreet