Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 26, 2015
Fundamental Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with buoyant tone after hitting the 2.5-month high of 121.78 on Monday. USD/JPY is supported by the positive dollar sentiment on continued impact from the last Friday’s higher-than-expected US April core CPI data. Financial markets in the US, the UK and Frankfurt were shut for holidays on Monday and no major data were released yesterday. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields, demand from Japan’s importers, and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. But USD/JPY upside is limited by the Japanese exports and profit-taking on long-USD positions ahead of the US data on Tuesday.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.50 and the second target at 123.80. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 121.70 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 121.40. The pivot point is at 122.45.
Resistance levels: 123.50 123.80 124.15
Support levels: 121.70 121.40 121
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Performed by Ahsan Aslam, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2015 |
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 26, 2015
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 26, 2015
Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment, the negative Swiss interest rates, and the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on the soft EUR/CHF cross.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at overbought levels. Five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9550 and the second target at 0.96. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9335 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9280. The pivot point is at 0.94.
Resistance levels: 0.9550 0.96 0.9635
Support levels: 0.9335 0.9280 0.9215
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Performed by Ahsan Aslam, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2015 |
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 26, 2015
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 26, 2015
Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the positive dollar sentiment, soft dairy prices, and speculation that the RBNZ would cut interest rate in coming months. But the kiwi sentiment is soothed by the larger-than-expected New Zealand April trade surplus of NZ$123 million (versus forecast NZ$98 million). NZD/USD losses are also tempered by the kiwi demand on the soft AUD/NZD cross and NZD-USD interest differential.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.72. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7170. The pivot point stands at 0.7280. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7320 and the second target at 0.7370.
Resistance levels: 0.7320 0.7370 0.7395
Support levels: 0.72 0.7170 0.7150
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Performed by Ahsan Aslam, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2015 |
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 26, 2015
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 26, 2015
Fundamental outlook:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. It is undermined by the weak GBP sentiment and Japan’s exports. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish. Five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 190 and the second target at 190.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 188 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 187.05. The pivot point is at 188.60.
Resistance levels: 190 190.60 191.35
Support levels: 188 187.05 185.90
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Performed by Ahsan Aslam, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2015 |
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 26, 2015
EUR/NZD : analysis for May 26, 2015
Overview:
Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.4930 in a high volume . The short-term trend is neutral. According to the daily time frame, supply is in a volume below the average and we got very weak price action. According to the 30-minute time frame, the price rejected from our Fibonacci expansion 100% (1.4950) in a high volume. Be careful when selling EUR/NZD since we may see bullish movements. First strong resistance is around the level of 1.5040.
Fibonacci Pivot Points:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.5050
R2: 1.5065
R3: 1.5090
Support levels:
S1: 1.4995
S2: 1.4980
S3: 1.4955
Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD at this stage since we can observe strong bullish activity (volume) in the background and rejection from our support.
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Performed by Petar Jacimovic, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2015 |
EUR/NZD : analysis for May 26, 2015
Price & Time:Familiar Pattern In USD/JPY
Talking Points
EUR/USD breaks below 50-day moving average
NZD/USD testing key retracement
USD/JPY overcomes important long-term retracement
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
EUR/USD broke below the 50-day moving average today to record a new low for the month
Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while below 1.1200
A 61.8% retracement of the March-May advance at 1.0850 is the next downside pivot of note
A very minor cycle turn window is eyed Thursday
A close above 1.1200 would turn us positive on the euro again
EUR/USD Strategy: Like selling on strength against 1.1200.
Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
NZD/USD probed below the 78.6% retracement of the March – April advance at .7285 to record its lowest level in two months today
Our near-term trend bias remains lower while below .7385
A close under .7285 is needed to set off the next leg lower in the rate
A very minor turn window is eyed today
A daily close over .7450 would turn us positive on the Kiwi
NZD/USD Strategy: Like holding only reduced short positions while below .7385
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY
USD/JPY overcame the 78.6% retracement of the 2002-2011 decline near 122.40 this morning to touch its highest level in almost eight years. The clear pattern in the exchange rate since 2011 has been to consolidate for months at a time around long-term Fibonacci levels before making its way higher again. Given this latest push higher is coming on the heels of six months of consolidation one has to wonder if this is the start of another impulsive move to the upside. A weekly/monthly close above 122.40 (and ideally above the 2007 high of 124.13) would further confirm the breakout and set the stage for a push towards the next long-term Fibonacci level around 128.35. Only aggressive weakness back under 120.55 would call into question the positive view.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Price & Time:Familiar Pattern In USD/JPY
Yen – Biggest Loser on Forex Market During Tuesday’s Trading
The Japanese yen was the weakest major currency during today’s trading session. The yen slid not only against other majors, like the US dollar, but against commodity currencies as well.
Today’s data released from Japan showed that the Services Producer Price Index rose 0.7 percent in April from a year ago, exceeding analysts’ projections by a small margin. At the same time, the index was down 0.1 percent from March.
The yen fell more than 1 percent against the dollar, which is dominating the currency market today. Yet the Japanese currency was soft against other currencies as well, including the New Zealand dollar.
USD/JPY jumped from 121.55 to 123.13 as of 13:07 GMT today, trading July 2007. NZD/JPY surged from 88.82 to 89.50.
If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Japanese Yen,
feel free to post them using the commentary form below.
Yen – Biggest Loser on Forex Market During Tuesday’s Trading
NZD Falls vs. USD, Gains on Other Majors
The New Zealand dollar fell against its US counterpart during the Tuesday’s trading session but gained against other majors, including the euro. Data from New Zealand showed that the nation’s trade surplus shrank last month, but the decrease was not as big as experts have predicted.
The New Zealand trade balance demonstrated an excess of NZ$123 million in April, down from NZ$754 million in the previous months. Still, the actual reading was above the median analysts’ forecast of NZ$105 million. Despite that, the New Zealand dollar was unable to compete with the US currency that is dominating the Forex market today.
NZD/USD fell from 0.7307 to 0.7289 as of 12:27 GMT today. Meanwhile, EUR/NZD dropped from 1.5008 to 1.4982, reaching the low of 1.4931 intraday.
If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the New Zealand Dollar,
feel free to post them using the commentary form below.
NZD Falls vs. USD, Gains on Other Majors
Euro Falls on Greek Debt Worries
Greece is once again in the spotlight, and the euro has touched a one-month low against the US dollar today as concerns about Greek debt once again come to the front of mind.
Euro slipped below the 1.9000 mark against the US dollar earlier in trading today, hitting a one-month low of 1.0885. The euro has since recovered some of those losses, but is still under pressure.
Concerns about Greece are once again coming to the surface as another payment deadline looms and traders speculate about whether or not Greece will be able to meet its obligations.
Some members of the Greek government are considering a small tax on ATM transactions in the hopes of encouraging consumers in Greece to use credit cards rather than deal in cash. This news comes as more and more people are losing confidence in the ruling party’s ability to handle the situation and make good decisions about what to do next.
The US dollar, by contrast, is picking up steam. Traders returned from the long holiday weekend to upbeat news from Janet Yellen.
At 11:49 GMT EUR/USD is down to 1.0921 from the open at 1.0978. EUR/GBP is also lower, dropping to 0.7086 from the open at 0.7097. EUR/JPY is higher, though, gaining to 133.8950 from the open at 133.4710.
If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Euro,
feel free to post them using the commentary form below.
Euro Falls on Greek Debt Worries
Loonie Loses Ground, But Hope Appears
Canadian dollar is losing ground against some of its major counterparts today, but there has been a slight shift in the long-term outlook for the loonie. Even though the Canadian dollar is lower today, there might be room for some strength in the future as the economy improves and if oil prices continue to recover.
Last week, there was a small shift in the USD/CAD, subtly favoring the Canadian dollar. Today, some of that favor is gone, with the greenback gaining against the loonie as oil prices and other commodities struggle. However, even so, there are hopes for the Canadian dollar in the future.
The Bank of Canada is more optimistic about the economy moving forward, and there are hints that there could be an interest rate hike soon. On top of that, there are concerns about the US economy, which seems to be losing some of its earlier steam. There are expectations, in the medium term, for the loonie to strengthen a little bit.
Today, though, the Canadian dollar is lower, falling as oil prices struggle and stocks move lower.
At 11:28 GMT USD/CAD is up to 1.2362 from the open at 1.2313. EUR/CAD is lower, falling to 1.3501 from the open at 1.3518. GBP/CAD is up to 1.9055 from the open at 1.9049.
If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar,
feel free to post them using the commentary form below.
Loonie Loses Ground, But Hope Appears
DXY advances beyond 97.00
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DXY advances beyond 97.00
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FXStreet (Edinburgh) – The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback vs. its main rivals, is extending its upbeat momentum above the 97.00 handle so far.
DXY boosted by US data
The dollar is prolonging its upside for the second consecutive week so far, on track to recover the ground lost after the rejection from the 100.00 handle in mid-April.
The index has gathered further traction today after the US calendar surprised markets to the upside, with Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence all coming in above forecasts. The auspicious results add to the rising sentiment supporting a Fed’s rate hike in the upcoming months, in line with recent comments by Chairwoman J.Yellen and VP S.Fischer.
DXY relevant levels
The index is now advancing 1.23% at 97.19 and a breakout of 97.34 (high May 26) would open the door to 97.55 (high Apr.24) and then 98.41 (high Apr.23). On the downside, the immediate support lines up at 94.82 (low May 22) followed by 94.08 (low May 19) and finally 93.27 (low May 18).
DXY advances beyond 97.00
EUR/GBP: Greenback pressures to fresh May lows
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EUR/GBP: Greenback pressures to fresh May lows
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FXStreet (Guatemala) – EUR/GBP is currently trading at 0.7067 with a high of 0.7100 and a low of 0.7064.
EUR/GBP is extending the downside and attention is focused on the March lows at 0.7015. The 4-year channel is on the horizon that commenced in Jan 2003 until Nov 2007, eight years ago and brings the possibility of a new negative range between 0.7000 and 0.6500 on continued supply and downside price action.
Fundamentally, there has been a good deal of US data today waking the market up and sending the dollar on the rampage again, pressuring the euro to fresh lows for May with domestic economic and political issues in the EZ taking the markets attention over factors of the UK economy leaving the euro more exposed than the pound to the dollars strength.
Technically, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that EUR/GBP will remain directly offered while rallies remain below the 0.7170 accelerated downtrend and will make no impact on the chart while below the 0.7282 15th March high. Target is the 0.7015 March low.”
EUR/GBP: Greenback pressures to fresh May lows
GBP/USD trims losses and rises to 1.5410
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GBP/USD trims losses and rises to 1.5410
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FXStreet (Córdoba) – Cable moved off daily lows and climbed back above 1.5400 as the US dollar loses steam in the market. GBP/USD bottomed earlier at 1.5352, the lowest level since May 8 but then rebounded.
Recently rose to 1.5413, hitting the highest level for the American session. The short term outlook still looks bearish but the pound could gain momentum if it manages to rise above the 1.5420/25 area that capped the upside during the European session.
Currently is trading at 1.5385, down 0.50% for the day, falling for the third day in a row. From Thursday’s high it has fallen more than 300 pips, amid a stronger US dollar. Despite falling against greenback, the pound is the best performer among European currencies.
GBP/USD trims losses and rises to 1.5410
USD/JPY back below 123.00
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USD/JPY back below 123.00
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FXStreet (Córdoba) – USD/JPY retreated from above 123.00 but continues to trade at 8-year highs supported by upbeat US data and recent comments from Fed.
USD/JPY picked up momentum and extended gains past the 123.00 level after US durable goods orders, and reached its highest level since Jul 10 2007 at 123.31. The pair has eased from highs, but holds onto a gain of 1.15% on the day, currently trading at 122.95.
USD/JPY levels to watch
On the upside, next resistances are seen at 123.47 (Jul 10 high), 123.65 (Jul 9 2007 high) and 124.00 (psychological level). On the downside, supports could be found at 122.45 (intraday level), 122.00 (psychological level) and 121.44 (May 25 low).
USD/JPY back below 123.00
United States 3-Month Bill Auction remains unchanged at 0.02%
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United States 3-Month Bill Auction remains unchanged at 0.02%
Gold At 50 Day SMA
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Gold, Weekly
As USD has rallied higher over the last few days the price of Gold (in dollar terms) has moved lower. The high of the last week was above a resistance level at 1224.50 at a 50 week moving average. Now price is approaching a 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1187. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1176.40 is relatively close to a weekly pivot low from April and coincides with daily Bollinger bands thus highlighting a level that has in the past turned price higher. However, before price can get that far there are support levels for bears to deal with. These support levels are visible at daily and 4h charts. In terms of higher time analysis Gold is in a sideways range with an upside bias as it has been able to make higher lows and (on a closing basis) a higher high. However, it seems to me that the resistance at 1224.50 to 1232 or so will need some work and real commitment from the bulls before it can be penetrated.
Gold Daily,
Price has broken below a support (now resistance) at 1200.80 and has fallen to (and slightly under) the 50 day SMA. This level is the closing high (highest close) of sideways move from the beginning of May. Stochastics are getting oversold and price is trading at a level that used to be a resistance. Nearest support and resistance levels are 1193.3 and 1200.80. The next important S&R levels after these are at 1177.90 and 1214.60.
Gold, 240 min
Trendline analysis in four chart reveals how Gold is trading at descending channel bottom that coincides with a range created by a 4h bar high (also a daily high) from May 12th and daily low from May 13th. Stochastics is overbought and the four hour bar could be creating a small pin bar indicating that price could reverse and move higher from here. Also, this price action takes place outside the lower Bollinger Bands adding to the oversold indication. Fibonacci levels coincide with potential resistance levels at 1202, 1207.8 and 1212.50. The region of 1207.80 coincides with the descending price channel and could act as a limit to potential upside moves.
Conclusion
Gold is in a sideways range with an upside bias as it has been able to make higher weekly lows and (on a closing basis) a higher high. However, it seems to me that the resistance at 1224.50 to 1232 or so will need some work and real commitment from the bulls before it can be penetrated. For short term traders Gold is at levels it could stage a small rally from. After correcting lower earlier today Gold has reached a level that has support in both daily and 4h time frames. With Stochastics oversold in both timeframes and market showing signs of downside momentum waning this level could cause the price of Gold to rally. Should there be appropriate long entry signals to justify buying at these levels, the Fibonacci levels in 4h chart could provide us with targets: T1 at 1202, T2 at 1207 and T3 at 1212. The region of 1207.80 coincides with the descending price channel and could act as an upper limit to potential upside moves. Follow the intraday charts to decide whether price action confirms the idea.
Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
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Gold At 50 Day SMA
Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis says We Will Pay June 5 Imf Payment Because There Will be a Deal by Then
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Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis says We Will Pay June 5 Imf Payment Because There Will be a Deal by Then
Danish Pm says Economy Crisis in the Country Is "over"
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Danish Pm says Economy Crisis in the Country Is "over"
Moody's: limited Spanish Corporate Issuance Growth expected in 2015 Despite Robust Market Conditions
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Moody's: limited Spanish Corporate Issuance Growth expected in 2015 Despite Robust Market Conditions
Danish Pm, Gearing up to An Election, Announces $5.7 Bln Spending Package on Health, Environment
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Danish Pm, Gearing up to An Election, Announces $5.7 Bln Spending Package on Health, Environment
South Africa Q1 GDP Growth Slows, Trails Expectations
South Africa’s economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter, figures from Statistics South Africa showed Tuesday.
Gross Domestic Product grew a seasonally adjusted and annualized 1.3 percent sequentially in the first quarter after the 4.1 percent expansion in the fourth quarter. Economists had expected 1.5 percent growth.
A 10.2 percent increase in the mining and quarrying sector contributed 0.9 percentage points to overall GDP growth. In the previous quarter, mining output was up 15.2 percent.
On the other hand, manufacturing output fell 2.4 percent, reversing some of the 9.5 percent growth in the previous quarter. Agriculture, forestry and fishing output dropped 16.6 percent, reversing the 7.5 percent increase in the previous quarter.
A 3.8 percent rise in finance, real estate and business services contributed 0.7 percentage points to the overall GDP growth, and a 1.2 percent increase in wholesale, retail and motor trade, catering and accommodation industry contributed 0.2 percentage points.
On a yearly basis, economic growth improved to 2.1 percent in the first quarter from 1.3 percent in the previous quarter. The year-over-year growth was in line with expectations.
Published: 2015-05-26 11:35:00 UTC+00
South Africa Q1 GDP Growth Slows, Trails Expectations
USD/CAD should test key resistance
After the downtrend, USD/CAD formed a triple bottom near 1.1940 with a low of 1.1918 tested on May 14. While forming the triple bottom, the pair was ranging between 1.1940 and 1.2140. The price broke out of the range sending pair higher on May 19.
This did put the beginning of further extension up resulted in a breakout of the descending channel. Applying Fibonacci to the breakout point, we can see that 38.2% level (1.2345) has been taken out and could act as a support. This could confirm that the uptrend is not over yet.
For more risky trade consider buying at the current rate, although to stay on a safer side perhaps it is better to wait for a pullback before going long. The target is very clear and it is pointing up to the R1 (1.2444) resistance level that previously acted as very strong support. Only a break below S2 (1.2263) might drop the price further to S3 (1.2181), however the R1 should be tested with a high probability, maybe not as soon as it appears.
Support: 1.2345, 1.2263, 1.2181
Resistance: 1.2444, 1.2608
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Performed by Viktor Bajer, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2015 |
USD/CAD should test key resistance
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for May 26, 2015
Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.
As mentioned before, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly supply zone of 1.5500-1.5550 (roughly corresponding to weekly 50% Fibonacci level), where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.
Last week, the market has already pushed above the weekly supply at 1.5530 (50% Fibo level) and further above 1.5720 (FE 100%). However, evident bearish pressure was applied around 1.5800, resulting in the depicted bearish engulfing weekly candlestick.
Note that persistence below the weekly supply at 1.5530 (corresponding to 50% Fibo level) hinders the ongoing bullish trend for sometime.
Sideways movement with a slight bearish tendency had been expressed on the daily chart until the bullish breakout took place above 1.4970-1.5000 (via a long-term bullish reversal pattern).
The price zone between 1.5000 and 1.5050 (daily 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) failed to hold. Moreover, it constitutes a prominent demand level for the GBP/USD pair now.
It offered a valid buy entry for retesting that took place last week.
A daily closure above the weekly supply zone of 1.5500-1.5530 exposed the next supply level located at 1.5720 (100% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing).
Evident bearish pressure was applied around 1.5720 (100% FE and the upper limit of the depicted bullish channel). So, a bearish pullback took place towards 1.5500 on Tuesday.
Bearish breakout off the depicted bullish channel took place on Friday as a result of the evident bearish pressure that emerged at the level of 1.5660.
Persistence below 1.5530 (lower limit of the broken channel) is needed to pursue towards lower levels.
Initial bearish targets would be located at 1.5250 and possibly 1.5100 if enough bearish momentum is expressed.
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Performed by Michael Becker, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2015 |
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for May 26, 2015
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 26, 2015
The market was pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.
The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1,500 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, the EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established on January 1997).
The previous monthly closure had a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. However, April’s monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing candle as depicted on the chart.
In the long term, bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term breakout target is roughly projected towards the level of 0.9450.
Meanwhile, a further bearish decline can be hindered for a few weeks.
On the other hand, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 and 1.1600 is still probable especially if intraday demand zone (1.1150-1.1100) remains defended by bulls.
The obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 allowed the market to fall dramatically shortly afterwards.
After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).
A bullish continuation pattern with an ascending bottom was established around the level of 1.0650.
That is why, bears failed to hinder the ongoing bullish momentum around the key zone of 1.1150-1.1050 on April 29. Temporal bullish fixation above 1.1100 took place shortly after.
Further bullish advancement was enhanced by the multiple daily closures above the levels of 1.1150 and 1.1250 until bearish pressure was applied around 1.1450 (just below the depicted supply level of 1.1500).
This week, bearish pullback is taking place towards 1.0800 -1.0830 where a valid buy entry can be offered.
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Performed by Michael Becker, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2015 |
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 26, 2015
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 26, 2015
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 26, 2015
Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 26, 2015
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 26, 2015
USDOLLAR Index Bottom Looks Established by Now
Talking Points:
– USDCAD, USDJPY continue to lead the way for USD-pairs.
– EURUSD in ‘sell rallies’ mode after break of March-May uptrend.
– See the May forex seasonality report.
The USDOLLAR Index has made considerable strides the past two weeks and by doing so, has positioned itself on the charts as having developed a potential significant bottom in the near-term. While the latest USDOLLAR Index rally was spurred on by an explosive move higher overnight in USDJPY, it’s worth noting that EURUSD and GBPUSD both have started to settle in below their channel uptrends dating back to mid-April.
As it proved to be on the way down for the US Dollar, USDCAD, despite not being a component of the USDOLLAR Index, continues to carry clout as a leading indicator for USD-pairs. Today, USDCAD looks to retake its January-April sideways range, and a weekly close through C$1.2386 would be a most desirable outcome for bulls.
Rounding back to USDJPY, it seems as if the bullish potential there is just getting unlocked. USDJPY failed to find any downside during the bout of USD weakness, so it should not be surprising to see the greenback take advantage of the frail yen during a period of USD strength. Positioning in the futures market has evened out substantially, insofar as there are the fewest amount of speculators short Japanese Yen since Q4’12 (which is when USDJPY traded below ¥80.00, pre-Abenomics). Similarly, speculative long US Dollar positions have dropped for eight straight weeks. In other words: long USDJPY is no longer a crowded trade; and a rush of repositioning could dictate higher prices in the weeks ahead.
See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, and the USDOLLAR Index.
Read more: EUR/USD Rally Checked by ECB Commentary, Better US Data
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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USDOLLAR Index Bottom Looks Established by Now
Monday, May 25, 2015
Gold, Crude Oil Waiting for Breakout from Tight Congestion Ranges
Talking Points:
US Dollar Extends Rebound, Hits Strongest Level in a Month
S&P 500 Still Treading Water After Setting New Record High
Gold, Crude Oil Continue to Oscillate in Congestion Ranges
Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to extend upside momentum after touching the highest level in a month. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci retracementat 11898 exposes the 61.8% level at 11960. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 11836 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% retracement at 11759.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating after breaking range resistance and setting a new record high. From here, a daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 2140.70 exposes the 61.8% level at 2159.30. Alternatively, a move back below the 38.2% Fib at 2122.10 targets the 23.6% expansion at 2099.10.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate after recoiling from resistance below $1250/oz. A close below trend line resistance-turned-support at 1203.88 exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1193.38. Near-term resistance is at 1232.30, the May 18 high.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices remain locked in a choppy consolidation range below the $70/barrel figure. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement exposes the 38.2% level at 60.27. Alternatively, a move above trend line resistance at 66.57 targets the 23.6% Fib expansion at 69.70.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Gold, Crude Oil Waiting for Breakout from Tight Congestion Ranges
Euro Drops on Greece Fears, Aussie Dollar Rises With Chinese Stocks
Talking Points:
Aussie Dollar Gains Alongside Chinese Stocks, Euro Drops on Greece Jitters
US Dollar Looks to Economic Data, Fed-Speak to Guide Rate Hike Outlook
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The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, tracking an advance on China’s Shanghai Composite stock index. The equity benchmark rose for a sixth consecutive day to the highest level in over 7 years. Newswires chalked up the move to follow-through on last week’s announcement of the “Made in China 2025” plan, a 10-year effort meant to upgrade the manufacturing sector. Traders may have bet that the program will benefit Australia – for whom China is the leading export market – and its pivotal mining sector.
The Euro turned lower after ominous comments from Klaus Regling, the head of the ESM bailout fund, renewed worries about Greece-linked instability. Regling said in an interview with Bild that officials were “working day and night” to come up with an accord but cautioned that “little time is left”. He went on to warn that insolvency would result without a deal to get new loans, adding that “even missing a payment to the IMF would be dangerous [and] affect other lenders, like us.”
Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European trading hours will see investors looking toward US news-flow for direction cues. April’s Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales figures as well as May’s Consumer Confidence report are on tap. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer is also scheduled to speak on the outlook for the global economy.
US data outcomes have been stabilizing relative to consensus forecasts over the past two months after a sharp downturn in the first quarter. If this proves to precede a turn upward, traders may begin to bring forward the expected timeline for the post-QE Fed interest rate hike. With that in mind, upbeat outcomes on today’s releases coupled with rhetoric suggesting the US central bank remains open to the sooner onset of tightening from Mr Fischer may drive the US Dollar higher. Needless to say, soft figures may inspire the opposite reaction.
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Asia Session
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Critical Levels
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Euro Drops on Greece Fears, Aussie Dollar Rises With Chinese Stocks
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: March Top Under Pressure
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Talking Points:
USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
Support:120.79, 119.91, 118.83
Resistance:121.55, 122.31, 123.26
The US Dollar stalled near the 122.00 figure against the Japanese Yen having extended to the highest level in nearly three months. Near-term resistance is at 121.55, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 122.31. Alternatively, a turn below the 38.2% Fibat 120.79 clears the way for a test of trend line resistance-turned-support at 119.91.
Risk/reward considerations argue against entering long with prices in close proximity to resistance. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bearish reversal signal suggests taking up the short side is premature. We will remain flat for now, waiting for an actionable opportunity to present itself.
Add these technical levels directly to your charts with our Support/Resistance Wizard app!
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: March Top Under Pressure
US Dollar Technical Analysis: Probing at Monthly Highs
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Talking Points:
US Dollar Technical Strategy: Holding Long via Mirror Trader Basket **
Support: 11836, 11759, 11711
Resistance: 11898, 11960, 12037
The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index is attempting to extend upside momentum after touching the highest level in a month. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci retracementat 11898 exposes the 61.8% level at 11960. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 11836 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% retracement at 11759.
We remain broadly bullish on the US Dollar against its leading counterparts in line with ourlong-term fundamental outlook. As such, we remain long via the Mirror Trader US Dollar currency basket.
Add these technical levels directly to your charts with our Support/Resistance Wizard app!
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
US Dollar Technical Analysis: Probing at Monthly Highs
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Overcome 1.10 Figure
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Talking Points:
EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
Support: 1.0934, 1.0808, 1.0653
Resistance:1.1059, 1.1214, 1.1310
The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected after negative RSI divergence pointed to fading upside momentum. Near-term support is at 1.0934, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 61.8% level at 1.0808. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 1.1059 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% expansion at 1.1214.
Risk/reward considerations argue against entering short in line with our long-term outlookwith prices in close proximity to support. With that in mind, we will continue to stand aside until a more attractive opportunity presents itself.
Add these technical levels directly to your charts with our Support/Resistance Wizard app!
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Overcome 1.10 Figure
Greece Rejects Capital Control Speculation
Greece’s government on Monday ruled out imposing controls over capital flows over the upcoming long weekend, after an opposition lawmaker suggested the move if the country fails to strike a deal with its creditors soon.
Gabriel Sakellaridis, the spokesman for the Greek government, reportedly said that the speculation of imposing capital controls was “unfounded and malicious”.
Earlier, New Democracy MP Dora Bakogiannis said on national television that the government may be forced to impose capital controls in banks if it fails to reach a deal with international creditors before the upcoming three-day long Pentecost weekend.
She urged Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to bring a deal to the Parliament fast to secure approval. The lawmaker also urged all opposition parties to back the deal and suggested that the country should face elections afterwards, Greek media reports said.
Cyprus is the only country in Eurozone to have imposed capital controls, which lasted two-years, ending just last month. The country was forced to impose restriction on capital flows in March 2013 following a European bailout from a severe banking crisis.
Greece, which was the first country to be bailed-out by EU/IMF in 2010, is still struggling and needs to secure more funds to meet its payments.
Published: 2015-05-25 15:10:00 UTC+00
Greece Rejects Capital Control Speculation
Canadian Dollar Declines As Oil Prices Fall
The Canadian dollar slipped against its major rivals in early New York deals on Monday, as oil prices fell on the back of strong dollar, which was underpinned by the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s comments that the bank is set to raise rates later this year.
Crude futures for July delivery fell $0.31 to $59.41 a barrel.
While speaking to a business group in Providence, Rhode Island on Friday, Yellen told that it is appropriate to raise rates later this year, if the economy continues to strengthen.
Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of rigs drilling for crude oil in the U.S. fell by only one to 659 last week, in a sign that U.S shale producers may accelerate oil production in the coming months.
Meanwhile, trading volumes were light, with U.S. markets and most of the European markets shut for public holidays.
The loonie has been weaker against its major rivals, except the euro, in the European session.
In early New York trading, the loonie edged down to 0.9633 against the aussie, off early high of 0.9598. Next key support for the loonie is seen around the 0.97 region. At last week’s close, the pair was valued at 0.9608.
The loonie pared gains to 98.72 against the yen, after climbing to 99.03 in early European deals. If the loonie extends slide, it may challenge support around the 98.00 mark. At Friday’s close, the pair was worth 98.88.
The loonie declined to 1.2307 against the greenback, and has been steady thereafter. The pair ended last week’s trading at 1.2277. If the loonie continues slide, it may locate support around the 1.25 mark.
Reversing from an early nearly 2-week high of 1.3477 against the euro, the loonie slipped to 1.3517. On the downside, the loonie may locate support near the 1.36 area.
Published: 2015-05-25 15:04:00 UTC+00
Canadian Dollar Declines As Oil Prices Fall
Mexico Q1 Current Account* Decrease to -9446 Mln $ (fcast -7850 Mln $) Vs Prev -5310 Mln $
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Mexico Q1 Current Account* Decrease to -9446 Mln $ (fcast -7850 Mln $) Vs Prev -5310 Mln $
Mexico Q1 Current Account/gdp* Increase to 3.2 % Vs Prev 2.10 %
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Mexico Q1 Current Account/gdp* Increase to 3.2 % Vs Prev 2.10 %
GOLD COULD RISE FACING SUPPORT
In past two months, Gold hasn’t showed any clear direction. The price moved in a 50-dollar range trading between 1180 and 1230 dollars for one troy ounce of gold. As no clear direction has been established, the best strategy is to use Oscillators to capitalize on the oversold/overbought market conditions.
While precious metal broke above the ascending channel, it rejected the resistance level R3 (1231.36), which is 23.6% Fibonacci level applied to the channel breakout point. Currently, the price dropped back to the 61.8% Fibs supporting S1 (1204.92), which is rejected. At the same time, DeMarker Oscilator crossed the oversold line from above suggested short-term growth.
If gold continues to trade above the S2 (that is the lowest point below S1 support), consider buying the yellow metal near S1 (1204.92) targeting either R1 (1213) or R2 (1221) resistance levels. Only a daily close below S2 could send the price lower to test S3 (1195).
Support: 1204.92, 1201.36, 1194.79
Resistance: 1213.04, 1221.23, 1231.36
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Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2015 |
GOLD COULD RISE FACING SUPPORT
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 25, 2015
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 25, 2015
Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 25, 2015
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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 25, 2015
Gold analysis for May 25, 2015
Overview:
Gold has been trading sideways around the level of $1,205.00. The price supports cluster around the level of $1,201.00. We can observe weak price action in a volume just above the average in the daily time frame. The short-term trend is neutral. The daily resistance at the level of $1,224.00 held successfully. If the price breaks the level of $1,224.00 in a high volume and strong price action takes place, we may see possible testing at the level of $1,250.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). Anyway, I found strong trading range between the price of $1,214.00 and $1,201.00. I am waiting for a clear breakout with a high volume to confirm direction. We can observe sign of weakness (SOW) inside the trading range, which is a sign that this is more likely a redistribution.
Daily Fibonacci pivot points:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1,205.40
R2: 1,206.00
R3: 1,206.50
Support levels:
S1: 1,204.00
S2: 1,203.50
S3: 1,202.80
Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold below the price of $1,225.00.
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Performed by Petar Jacimovic, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2015 |
Gold analysis for May 25, 2015
EUR/NZD analysis for May 25, 2015
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Overview:
Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.4999 in a high volume . The short-term trend is bearish. According to the daily time frame, supply is in a volume below the average. According to the 30-minute time frame, the price has broken the strong trading range between the price of 1.5040 and 1.5260. Be careful when buying. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential bearish targets and got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1.5070 (broken), Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.4940 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.4725. Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.
Fibonacci Pivot Points:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.5170
R2: 1.5210
R3: 1.5270
Support levels:
S1: 1.5045
S2: 1.5000
S3: 1.4940
Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage since we can observe strong bearish activity (volume) in the background and broken trading range.
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Performed by Petar Jacimovic, Analytical expert InstaForex Group © 2007-2015 |
EUR/NZD analysis for May 25, 2015
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