Asian Market Update: ADB’s Kuroda formally nominated to replace BOJ Gov Shirakawa; AUD rises despite disappointing Q4 CAPEX data as mining investment stays firm
Economic Data
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 PRIVATE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE Q/Q: -1.2% V +1.0%E (biggest decline in 10 quarters)
– (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 4.2% V 6.2% PRIOR
– (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.6% V 3.7%E
- (N ) NEW EALAND FEB AN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 39.4 V 22.7 PRIOR (17-month high); AN ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 37.6 V 31.4 PRIOR
– (N ) NEW EALAND JAN MONEY SUPPLY M3 Y/Y: 6.4% V 6.0% PRIOR
– (N ) NEW EALAND JAN BUILDING PERMITS M/M: -0.4% V -2.0%E
- (JP) JAPAN FEB MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.5 V 47.7 PRIOR (8-month high)
– (JP) JAPAN JAN PRELIM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.0% V 1.5%E; Y/Y: -5.1% V -4.9%E
– (JP) JAPAN JAN VEHICLE PRODUCTION Y/Y: -9.9% V -17.2% PRIOR
– (KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -1.5% V +0.3%E; Y/Y: 7.3% V 5.0%E
– (KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX CHANGE Y/Y: -0.2% V +0.4% PRIOR (first decline in 3 months)
– (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR BUSINESS SURVEY MANUFACTURING: 76 V 72 PRIOR; NON-MANUFACTURING: 69 V 70 PRIOR
– (SG) SINGAPORE JAN MONEY SUPPLY M1 Y/Y: 11.2% V 9.0% PRIOR; M2 Y/Y: 8.5% V 7.2% PRIOR
– (SG) SINGAPORE JAN CREDIT CARD BAD DEBTS (S$): 18.3M V 19.1M PRIOR; CREDIT CARD BILLINGS: 3.39B V 3.69B PRIOR; BANK LOANS & ADVANCES Y/Y: 18.3% V 16.7% PRIOR
– (TH) THAILAND JAN MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION INDEX ISIC: 10.1 V 12.4E
– (UK) UK FEB GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -26 V -26E
Markets Snapshot (as of 04:00 GMT)
– Nikkei225 +2.1%
– S&P/ASX +1.4%
– Kospi +1.0%
– Shanghai Composite +0.6%
– Hang Seng +1.2%
– Mar S&P500 flat at 1,518
– Apr gold flat at $1,598/o
– Apr Crude Oil +0.2% at $93.04/brl
Notes/Observations
- N D up 70pips above $0.8320 following 17-month high in AN Business Confidence.
– AUD testing below $1.02 on two separate occasions as RBA calls AUD undervalued by 4-15% in late 2012 and Q4 capex disappoints even as forecast for FY12/13 and mining spending is up on y/y basis; Analysts still see Capex data diminishing prospects for more RBA easing.
– METI upgrades Japan’s assessment for industrial production.
– Japan PM Abe formally submits ADB’s Kuroda to Diet as BOJ Gov nominee.
– Shanghai Composite extending gains in late session; Up nearly 2%.
Speakers/Political/In the Papers
- (JP) Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s (METI): Raises industrial production assessment; Output has stopped falling, sees signs of pickup
– (JP) Japan BoJ Shirakawa: Cannot purchase foreign bonds for the purpose of intervention, will continue to supply a large amount of funds to the market – addressing parliament
- (JP) BOJ Board member Kiuchi: To consider easing policy further; Sees some risk of economy undershooting long-term forecast
– (CN) Analysts forecast China Feb new yuan loans to reach RMB750B – China press
- (CN) China Electricity Council (CEC): 2013 total power consumption will increase +6.5-8.5% v 5.5% in 2012 – financial press
- (AU) S&P: Australia banking outlook is Stable, but risks remain
– (N ) S&P: Significant risk of sharp correction for N property – financial press
– (EU) Moody’s: Euro region sovereign debt markets vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence
– (US) Fed’s Fisher: Current pace of asset buys runs the risk of overkill; QE benefitting Wall Street and not main street
Currencies
– Asia session was marked by sharp moves in the AUD/USD, at the start of trading in Australi. The RBA released documents on AUD holdings, noting that the value of the AUD was 4-15% overvalued as recently as late 2012, sending AUD below $1.02 before paring losses and recovering to $1.0230. Shortly after, a Q4 release of private capital expenditure showed the biggest Q/Q decline in 10 quarters at -1.2%. AUDUSD initially fell 20 pips toward $1.02 again but quickly bounced off the handle and staged a sharp rally through 1.0270. Analysts indicated mining investment is projected to remain strong on y/y basis, as ABS also provided its first estimate of FY13/14 capex that was not as poor as had been feared.
– USD weakness was also seen in N DUSD and USDSGD as both reached 0.8320 and 1.2355 respectively. USD weakness lost steam midday and USDSGD bounced off 1.2350 levels and N DUSD also failed to sustain its gains. Onshore currencies KRW, TWD, MYR, and PHP were little changed on the day, and the USDCNY fixing was slightly lower at 6.2779 v 6.2842 the prior day.
– USDJPY was fairly muted during Asian session, JPY saw some strength after Fin Min Aso made comments that the BoJ should avoid foreign bond buying and cannot be perceived as conducting intervention in FX markets. The effect of the comments on USDJPY was muted however as the pair remained contained to 92.10-92.60 range despite the strong gains in risky assets.
Fixed Income/Commodities
– (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.51T in 0.1% 2-yr notes, Avg Yield: 0.047% v 0.070% prior; bid to cover: 5.14x v 10.13x prior
– (MA) Malaysia sells 2018 Bonds; avg yield 3.260%; bid-to-cover: 1.94x
– SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,617 tons from 10,602 tons prior (highest since 10,690 on Jan 23rd)
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 12.0 tons to 1,258.4 ton (lowest since 1,258 on Aug 15th; 7th consecutive session of decline)
– (AU) Australia Port Hedland plans to re-open Thursday, notes no major damage from Cyclone Rusty
Equities
- WOW.AU: Reports H1 Net A$1.25B +5.5% y/y, Rev A$30.9B +4.8% y/y; +2.5%
– LLC.AU: Sells aged care business for A$270M to Australian Aged Care Partners – Australian press
– LEI.AU: Awarded contact in Hong Kong valued at approx A$370M – financial press
– RIO: Resumes operations at Port Dampier after tropical cyclone Rusty, Cape Lambert Port will also re-open
– HVN.AU: Reports H1 Net A$81.9M v A$128.9M y/y, Rev A$2.88B -5.3% y/y;
– Komatsu 6301.JP: May report FY13/14 op profit over ¥300B vs ¥230B forecasted for FY12/13 – Nikkei News
– Denso 6902.JP: To build facility in Japan; to invest approx ¥11.5B – financial press
– TM: To resume hiring seasonal workers to help boost domestic output due to weakness in JPY and strong demand – Nikkei News
– RGR: Reports Q4 $1.00 v $0.73e, R$141.8M v $124Me; +2.8% afterhours
– MYL: Reports Q4 $0.65 v $0.64e, R$1.72B v $1.73Be; To Acquire Agila for $1.6B; to Create Leading Global Injectables Platform; +2.4% afterhours
– LTD: Reports Q4 $1.76 v $1.73e, R$3.86B v $3.79Be; -0.3% afterhours
- JCP: Reports Q4 -$1.95 v -$0.23e, R$3.88B v $4.16Be; -13.4% afterhours
– GRPN: Reports Q4 -$0.05 v $0.03e, R$638M v $639Me; -26.0% afterhours
– VALE: Reports Q4 Net $1.9B v $4.9B y/y, R$12.0B v $14.8B y/y
The US dollar fell against some currencies, including the euro and the pound, but rose against others, including the yen, today. The US currency ended the month as the best performer, supported by fears of global economic slowdown.
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Euro is headed lower again, thanks to more economic data that indicates the euro one is likely to remain in an economic contraction. Even good news out of Germany can’t change the subdued economic outlook for the entire 17-nation currency region.
The New ealand dollar advanced today as business confidence climbed in February. Building permits declined last month, but this did not deter the rally of the currency.
The Swiss franc fell versus the US dollar and rose against the euro today. The Swiss economy unexpectedly grew last quarter, suggesting that the strong currency is not that detrimental to economic growth.
Canadian dollar is lower against its major counterparts today, dropping as economic expectations weigh on the loonie. Between GDP data to be released tomorrow, and a Bank of Canada announcement next week, there aren’t high hopes for loonie performance.
The Japanese yen fell today after Prime Minister Shin o Abe appointed Haruhiko Kuroda as the next Bank of Japan Governor. The currency bounced to the opening level as of now.
The Mexican peso gained today as Manuel Sanche , a member of the central bank’s board, said that he is not supporting an interest rate cut. The market sentiment was also supportive for the currency.
