AUD and RBA, 04:30 GMT




  • Current 2.75% Expected 2.75%

  • Dovish, rate cut: AUD Bearish

  • Hawkish, rate hike: AUD Bullish 

  • Key pairs to watch: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, NZD/USD


The RBA has been cutting rates for the past year, taking it to current 2.75% level early May, and the last Minutes shown the movement has been a response to low inflation and a strong Australian dollar, which were hindering economic growth. The surprise has taken its toll on Aussie that lost ground steadily most of the month against major rivals. Due to current weakness, the RBA will likely remain on hold in its upcoming meeting, making of it a quiet event. However, a still dovish stance from governor Stevens will keep current bearish trend in place.



A more optimistic statement, suggesting things are getting better due to latest action, should lead to some temporal AUD recovery, at least in correction mode.




USD and US Trade Balance, 12:30 GMT




  • Current -38.8B – Expected -41.0B

  • Below expected: USD Bearish

  • Above expected: USD Bullish 

  • Key pairs to watch: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD


US Trade Balance is far from expected to present a surplus: the deficit has extended now for several decades, and market measures US dollar strength on how much the deficit increases, or decreases. The best reading of the past ten years has been a deficit of “just” 26B so it takes a lower deficit to actually convince investors things are really improving in the US. But with recent data, the trade deficit has more chances of widening than of shirking: expect a wider deficit to keep greenback under pressure, particularly against JPY. The wider the deviation from the expected number, the stronger should be the movement.