AUD and Australian Retail Sales and Trade Balance, 01:30 GMT



While not first line data, both Retail Sales and Trade Balance will likely take their toll on Aussie today, as the currency remains weak following past Asian session RBA governor Stevens’ dovish tone. Both readings are expected slightly above previous month numbers, so if the final outcome results even above expected, the AUD can gain some ground, at least in the short term, particularly against weakened JPY.  However, don’t expect the rally to extend much. But worse than expected numbers, will continue to feed the dominant bearish trend, particularly against stronger USD.



EUR and European Markit services PMIs, 07:15 – 08:00 GMT



  • Above expected: EUR Bullish

  • Below expected: EUR Bearish

  • Key pairs to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY

The Services PMI readings of several European countries, including strong Germany and France, and troubled Spain and Italy, will be released all together in a 1 hour time frame along with the EU area as a whole.  At the time being, all of them stand below 50, the level that divides growth from contraction and only German one is expected to recover up to 51.3. A slightly improvement, but will numbers still below 50, should only offer temporal support to the common currency. Stronger numbers above 50 will likely trigger a stronger EUR rally, as it will exceed expectations by far, surprising investors. Finally, a worse than expected outcome in the majority of the readings, particularly in German one, will support a downward continuation of the shared currency.