Thursday, April 30, 2015

AUD/USD: Back in to the bears cage - FXStreet

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AUD/USD: Back in to the bears cage – FXStreet

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FXStreet (Guatemala) – Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted that the Australian dollar fell down to 0.7862 against the greenback, erasing most of its latest gains.

Key Quotes:

“The pair broke the critical 0.8000 figure during the Asian session, following a dovish RBNZ that down-talked the NZD.”

“The break below the figure triggered stops and with metals back in the red, it was all the way down for the AUD/USD pair during most of the day.”

“Having recovered some ground during the US afternoon, the 1 hour chart shows that the price stands well below its 20 SMA, currently offering an immediate resistance in the 0.7940 region, whilst the technical indicators recovered from oversold levels but show no upward momentum, suggesting current recovery is just corrective.”

“In the 4 hours chart, the price stands well below its 20 SMA that anyway maintains a bullish slope, whilst the Momentum indicator heads strongly lower below 100 and the RSI indicator also heads south around 48, all of which supports additional declines should the price remain below the 0.7940 level.”

AUD/USD: Back in to the bears cage - FXStreet

Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.4%) in March

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Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.4%) in March

Japan Nomura/ JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index above forecasts (49.8) in April: Actual (49.9)

NZ FinMin: New Zealand faces bigger 2014/15 budget deficit

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NZ FinMin: New Zealand faces bigger 2014/15 budget deficit

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FXStreet (Bali) – New Zealand finance minister English spoke to the NZ Chamber of Commerce a little earlier, with headlines crossing the wires via Reuters, noting that New Zealand faces bigger 2014/15 budget deficit, smaller 2015/16 surplus due lower tax take.

Additional headlines

Low inflation hitting the NZ government’s tax take, expected to be down NZ$4.5 bln over next four yrs

Treasury expects nominal GDP to 2019 to be about 1.5 pct below forecast on low inflation

Low inflation sustaining stronger growth and keeping rates lower for longer

To keep NZ$1 bln new spending allowance in each of next two years despite lower tax take

NZ FinMin: New Zealand faces bigger 2014/15 budget deficit

Australia Producer Price Index (QoQ) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q

Stay Bullish USD, Long JPY

Data Pressures Loonie

USD/JPY: No Fresh Triggers, Next Week's Range And Outlook

USD Limited Downside: Buy Dips

NZD: Close To Key Resistance

USDCAD Breakdown Stalls at Key Support- May Opening Range in Focus

Talking Points

USDCAD responds to key near-term support heading into month close

Scalps target rebound – rally to offer favorable shorts

Event Risk on TapThisWeek

USD/CAD Daily

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

USDCAD rebounds off key support confluence into 1.1976/88

Resistance eyed at weekly highs / ML confluence (highlighted region)

Broader outlook remains weighted to the downside below January median line (bearish invalidation)

Support break targets objectives at 1.1850 & 1.1726

Topside breach eyes resistance objectives at 1.2312 & 1.2384

Daily RSI resistance trigger pending

Event Risk Ahead: US ISM Manufacturing & Canada Manufacturing PMI tomorrow

USD/CAD 30min

Notes:The USDCAD has continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined median-line formation off the March 31st high with yesterday’s rebound off key daily support charging a rally back towards the upper MLP at 1.2150. A breach above this region risks a rally back towards the operative daily ML, currently around 1.2265 backed by the 23.6% retracement at 1.2311. Note that we are closing out April trade with the May opening range in focus as we head into next week.

Bottom line: looking for a resolution to this week’s range heading into May with a breach above targeting the January ML (favorable short entries?). Interim support 1.2068 backed by 1.1978 & this week’s low / ML support at 1.1944. A quarter of the daily ATR yields profit targets of 29-32 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into event risk out of the US & Canada tomorrow with the manufacturing data on tap for both counterparties likely to fuel added volatility in USD & CAD crosses.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

USDCAD Breakdown Stalls at Key Support- May Opening Range in Focus

Other Setups in Play:

AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI

Scalp Webinar: USD Risks Fresh Lows Ahead of Slowing GDP, FOMC

GBPJPY Breakout Eyes 181- Long Scalps Favored Above 179

Scalp Webinar: USD Correction In Focus- Kiwi at Risk Sub 7700

NZDUSD Breakout Stalls at 7700 Resistance- Short Scalps Pending

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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USDCAD Breakdown Stalls at Key Support- May Opening Range in Focus

USD/JPY Carves Lower-Highs in April; Bearish RSI Momentum in Focus

Talking Points:

– USD/JPY Retail Crowd Remains Net-Long Despite String of Lower Highs.

– Long-Term Bearish EUR/USD Outlook Vulnerable to European Central Bank (ECB)‘Taper Tantrum.’

– USDOLLAR Holds February Low (11,736); All Eyes on U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).

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USD/JPY

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USD/JPY may continue to face a narrowing range in the days ahead as it carves a series of lower-highs in April; downside risk remains as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bearish momentum from back in December.

Seems as though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will retain its JPY 80Y/month asset-purchase program as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon; may put increased emphasis on the fundamental developments coming out of the U.S. economy.

Despite waning market participant going into the end of the week/month, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains heavily long USD/JPY as the ratio stands at +2.25.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD advances for six-consecutive sessions to mark the longest stretch of advance since December 2013; will keep a close eye on the RSI as it flirts with overbought territory.

As the European Central Bank (ECB) strikes an upbeat outlook for the euro-area and sees the decline in long-term inflation expectations coming to a halt, may see a growing risk for a ‘taper tantrum’ in the second-half of the year.

Series of higher highs & lows may generate a further advance in EUR/USD, with the next key region of interest coming in around the 1.1330 handle (78.6% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Price & Time: Kiwi Impasse

AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

USD/JPY Carves Lower-Highs in April; Bearish RSI Momentum in Focus

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Despite the mixed batch of fundamental developments over the last 24-hours of trade, the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may hold the February low (11,736) going into May as the RSI fails to push into oversold territory.

Will keep a close eye on the employment component for the ISM Manufacturing survey as market participants turn their attention to the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report due out on May 8.

May see a larger rebound on the back of month-end flows, but will watch former support zones for new resistance amid the bearish momentum, with the key region of interest coming in around 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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USD/JPY Carves Lower-Highs in April; Bearish RSI Momentum in Focus

U.s. Mint Sells No American Eagle Platinum Coins in April

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U.s. Mint Sells No American Eagle Platinum Coins in April

U.s. Mint American Eagle Silver Coin Sales in April fall 5.6 Pct to 2.85 Mln Oz

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U.s. Mint American Eagle Silver Coin Sales in April fall 5.6 Pct to 2.85 Mln Oz

U.s. Mint American Eagle Gold Coin Sales in April fall 36.6 Pct to 29,500 Oz

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U.s. Mint American Eagle Gold Coin Sales in April fall 36.6 Pct to 29,500 Oz

Treasuries Close Modestly Lower But Well Off Worst Levels

After coming under pressure in early trading on Thursday, treasuries regained some ground over the course of the session.

Bond prices climbed well off their worst levels of the day but still closed modestly lower. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up by 1.1 basis points to 2.046 percent after reaching a high of 2.11 percent.

While the ten-year yield ended the session well off its highs, it still finished the day at its best closing level in well over a month.

The early weakness among treasuries was partly due to ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for interest rates following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

The Fed’s statement failed to provide specific guidance regarding interest rates, although several analysts noted the central bank did not rule out a rate hike at the June meeting.

In the statement issued followed the March meeting, the Fed said an interest rate hike at the April meeting was unlikely, but the central bank did not make a similar declaration in yesterday’s statement.

Negative sentiment may also have been generated by a report from the Labor Department showing that initial jobless claims pulled back to a fifteen-year low in the week ended April 25th.

The Labor Department said initial jobless claims dropped to 262,000, their lowest level since hitting 259,000 in the week ended April 15, 2000.

Nonetheless, selling pressure waned over the course of morning trading, as some traders felt the pullback was overdone.

The subsequent recovery attempt by treasuries may have reflected a sell-off that emerged on Wall Street, which dragged the Dow down by more than 200 points.

Trading on Friday may be impacted by another batch of U.S. economic data, with traders likely to keep an eye on reports on manufacturing activity, consumer sentiment, and construction spending.

Published: 2015-04-30 20:32:00 UTC+00

Treasuries Close Modestly Lower But Well Off Worst Levels

Cbr Easing Cycle Likely to Go On

Today, the CBR cut the key rate by 150bp which exceeded consensus expectations (100bp), but fell short of the massive policy easing (200bp+) some had been advocating recently.
Today’s press release from the CBR is largely identical to the one published after the 13 March 2015 meeting. The CBR is still trying to find a balance between weak economic activity, subsiding financial stability risks and high, albeit already falling, inflation expectations. The latter is still the key factor prohibiting the CBR from a more aggressive approach towards monetary policy easing.
Like in March, the CBR pledges to continue monetary policy easing as inflation risks abate further. The mix of inflation risks remains much the same as in March, including potential pressures from tariff and budgetary decisions, salary indexation, and still-elevated inflation expectations. The CBR mentioned ‘Aggravation of external economic situation’ as the only new risk factor which, theoretically, could mean unfavourable oil price dynamics, lift-off in the US Fed rates and/or slowdown in China.
“We acknowledge that the CBR is maintaining a conservatively dovish stance towards monetary policy. We note that little has really changed regarding the inflationary risk factors the CBR mentions, and thus the prospects for massive CBR easing going forward remain uncertain. Until there is more clarity on how the inflationary risks, such as tariff, budgetary and salary decisions, will play out, we are sticking to our forecast of 11% for the key rate by the end of 2015. Moreover, the CBR’s 450bp key rate cuts year-to-date might put the inflation slowdown at risk in late 2015 and/or early 2016.” said Societe Generale

Published: 2015-04-30 20:05:00 UTC+00

Cbr Easing Cycle Likely to Go On

EURGBP Challenging 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement

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EURGBP Challenging 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement

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EURGBP, Weekly

EURGBP has been moving higher since it hit my target level at 0.7022 in March. EURGBP had been moving too low for too long and had reached levels that acted as resistance in several occasions from 1998 to 2006. Now March monthly candle has created a doji while the April candle will be another doji if no spectacular price moves happen over today’s trading. This suggests that long term supply and demand are in relative balance at current levels.

Providing this week’s candle closes in proximity of current price levels or higher we very likely have a higher weekly low and a new pivotal candle in weekly time frame. This low coincides with the upper end of downward regression channel. Stochastics is neutral reflecting the price action being close to half way of the recent price range. EURGBP is currently trying to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A close above last week’s high implies probabilities for the pair moving to next weekly highs have increased.

EURGBP, Daily

The pair has moved above its 50 day SMA that coincides with a previous resistance level at 0.7236 while another technical factor coinciding with this level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. These levels are fairly close to the midrange and therefore do not bear that strong predictive value but it would still a positive if we saw this market closing above the 0.7236 level. Nearest significant support and resistance levels in the daily chart: 0.7132 and 0.7326.

EURGBP, 240 min

Price has broken out of the descending regression channel and has since then moved above resistance levels that have now turned into supports. Stochastics is getting overbought so it shouldn’t be too long from now that we see retracements to support levels. Nearest support at 0.7213 should be an interesting level to look at for long signals in such a case while 0.7285 is the nearest more significant intraday resistance level.

Conclusion

There is an attempt to create a market bottom but this pair however probably needs more consolidation before it’s completed. While EURUSD has moved beyond the recent highs that resisted the price advances EURGBP is still below the same highs and therefore inside the range. These pairs have recently had fairly strong correlation, and should the EURUSD correct lower from a resistance it is likely to have a negative impact on EURGBP. If EURUSD corrects lower and tests support levels successfully it is more likely that EURGBP will bottom out. A close above last week’s high implies probabilities for the pair moving to next weekly highs have increased. In such case the 0.7376 to 0.7422 range would be a reasonable target for short term trades. Short term momentum is currently to the upside but price is nearing the 0.7286 resistance. The Greek uncertainty coupled with elections in the UK could bring more volatility over the coming days and weeks. As usual, it makes sense to look for sell signals at resistance levels and buy signals at supports.

Trade these levels only if price action at the levels confirms my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level. Click the image below to register and participate for FREE!

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Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

EURGBP Challenging 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement

USD/CAD: Canadian Animal Spirits

EUR/USD: Where Does Today’s US Data Dump Leave Us?

GBP/JPY: More Left?

FX Daily Update

SNB Takes Huge Loss, USD/CHF Breaches Support At 0.9491

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for April 30, 2015

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for April 30, 2015

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 30, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1600 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

The previous monthly closure had a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair in the long term. However, some bullish rejection is expressed by the ongoing monthly candlestick.

On the long-term, bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 shouldn’t be excluded as long-term breakout target is roughly projected towards the level of 0.9450.

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The obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 enhanced the bearish side of the market exposing lower targets.

Full projection targets of the Flag pattern were successfully reached at 1.0800 and 1.0500.

After such a long bearish rally (which started around levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Last week, the price zone between 1.0750 and 1.0800 failed to neutralize the ongoing bullish momentum. Insteadof it, an ascending bottom was established around the level of 1.0750.

This applied strong bullish pressure over the level of 1.1050, exposing the next supply zone at 1.1150-1.1240 where the price action should be watched carefully for a valid sell entry if the current daily candlestick comes as a reversal one by the end of the day.

Arief Makmur is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 30, 2015

GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 30, 2015

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Overview:

On March 2, bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Persistence below the zone of 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline.

Initial projection target for this bearish breakout was located at 1.4700. Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was established.

Evident bullish recovery emerged at 1.4560 pushing the GBP/USD pair above the level of 1.4700. Since then, successive higher highs have been established on the H4 chart.

As anticipated, daily closure above 1.5060 (50% Fibonacci level) ended the ongoing bearish momentum. This exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5350 and 1.5400 (upper limit of the ongoing H4 channel).

In the short term, the zone of 1.5240-1.5200 (lower limit of the H4 channel and previous consolidation range) constitutes a significant intraday support when further bearish pullback occurs.

Persistence below 1.5400 (the upper limit of the H4 channel and previous prominent resistance) enhances the bearish side of the market towards the levels of 1.5300, 1.5250, and 1.5150 if enough bearish momentum is expressed below 1.5240.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5050 remains the most prominent support level to watch for long-term buy entries (corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous consolidation range’s upper limit)

Arief Makmur is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 30, 2015

USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 30, 2015

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Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought.

The market failed to hold above 1.2650 – 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were established within the depicted consolidation zone, enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Support levels around 1.2350 and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) were broken after providing significant support for several weeks on the daily and weekly charts.

A daily fixation below 1.2300 cleared the way for the USD/CAD pair towards the levels of 1.2000, 1.1940 (projection target of the recent range breakout), and 1.1870 (the depicted weekly uptrend) if enough bearish momentum is maintained. That’s why these levels should be watched carefully for early signs of bullish price action.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2320-1.2350 remains the significant intraday resistance zone for further retesting. This zone is likely to offer a low-risk sell entry at retesting.

Trading recommendations:

For those who missed the initial breakout below 1.2100, conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards 1.2170-1.2200 for a low-risk sell entry.

T/P levels should be placed at 1.1950, 1.1860, and 1.1810 while S/L should be placed above 1.2170.

Risky traders can take a high-risk BUY entry around the current prices.T/P is projected at 1.2100 and 1.2270 as long as USD/CAD bulls keep defending Today’s low (1.1940).

Mohamed Samy is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 30, 2015

EUR/NZD : analysis for April 30, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of 1.4766 in a high volume. The short-term trend is bullish. Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after a bearish correction. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe that our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at 1.4200 was held successfully. It caused the price to start moving upwards. Our objective points at the levels of 1.4385, 1.4490, and 1.4525 are met. According to Fibonacci expansion, the next bullish objective point is at the level of 1.5000 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the daily time frame, we can observe demand in a high volume, which is a sign that selling looks risky.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4500

R2: 1.4571

R3: 1.4685

Support levels:

S1: 1.4268

S2: 1.4200

S3: 1.4081

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD and watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement.

Petar Jacimovic is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

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EUR/NZD : analysis for April 30, 2015

US Dollar Remains a Sell versus the Euro Until this Changes

– Aggressively one-sided retail forex sentiment points to US Dollar weakness

– Until we see an important shift, we will remain in favor of buying Euro versus USD

– See full analysis below in individual currency sections

Receive the Weekly Speculative Sentiment Index report via PDF via David’s e-mail distribution list.

View individual currency sections:

EURUSD – Forex Crowd Sentiment Points to Further Euro Gains

GBPUSD – British Pound Forecast to Trade Higher

USDJPY – US Dollar Likely to Test Key Support versus Yen

AUDUSD – Australian Dollar Forecast Unclear On Major Sentiment Shift

NZDUSD – New Zealand Dollar Remains Close to Key Resistance

GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast Mixed versus Yen

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

US Dollar Remains a Sell versus the Euro Until this Changes

Retail forex traders remain heavily long the US Dollar, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leaves us in favor of selling into declines.

See specific US Dollar forecasts in the sections above, and sign up for future e-mail updates via this author’s e-mail distribution list.

US Dollar Remains a Sell versus the Euro Until this Changes

— Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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US Dollar Remains a Sell versus the Euro Until this Changes

British Pound Forecast Mixed versus Yen

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GBPJPY – The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.07 as 48% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.30; 43% of open positions were long. Long positions are 22.4% higher than yesterday and 15.0% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 12.7% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 10.2% higher than yesterday and 3.0% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPJPY may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

See next currency section:EURUSD – Aggressive Crowd Selling Points to Euro Gains

— Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

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Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX

British Pound Forecast Mixed versus Yen

New Zealand Dollar Remains Close to Key Resistance

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NZDUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.19 as 46% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.39; 42% of open positions were long. Long positions are 4.5% lower than yesterday and 17.9% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 18.3% lower than yesterday and 21.7% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 12.5% lower than yesterday and 1.5% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the NZDUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

See next currency section: GBPJPY – Pullback in British Pound Clouds Outlook versus Yen

— Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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New Zealand Dollar Remains Close to Key Resistance

Australian Dollar Forecast Unclear On Major Sentiment Shift

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AUDUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.03 as 49% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.41; 42% of open positions were long. Long positions are 14.5% higher than yesterday and 6.8% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 15.8% lower than yesterday and 8.3% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 3.2% lower than yesterday and 5.0% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.

See next currency section:NZDUSD – New Zealand Dollar Stumbles, Forecast Unclear

— Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Australian Dollar Forecast Unclear On Major Sentiment Shift

US Dollar Likely to Test Key Support versus Yen

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USDJPY – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.50 as 71% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 2.42; 71% of open positions were long. Long positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday and 4.5% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 5.7% lower than yesterday and 25.4% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 3.3% lower than yesterday and 7.8% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.

See next currency section:AUDUSD – Australian Dollar Fails to Rally Above Key Resistance

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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US Dollar Likely to Test Key Support versus Yen

EUR/JPY: Downward Correction Possible

Thursday's Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY

Daily Technical Report : April 30, 2015

EUR/USD: Continuing Higher

IForex Daily : April 30, 2014

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 30, 2015

GBP/USD got another bullish momentum within the Wednesday session, trying to reach the level of 1.5538, which is the closest resistance on the upside. Now, we could expect a bullish consolidation with a higher high pattern formation at the daily time frame. Don’t forget that the 200 SMA in the resistance zone of 1.5538 could act as dynamic resistance.

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In the H1 chart, we can observe some kind of bullish pattern formation below the level of 1.5439. The pair is trying to test the resistance zone of 1.5496 again. In an intraday outlook, GBP/USD is still supported by 1.5396 and if it does a breakout in this zone, it would be expected to fall to the support at 1.5346.

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Daily chart’s resistance levels: 1.5538 / 1.5778Dailychart’s support levels: 1.5371 / 1.5238H1 chart’s resistance levels: 1.5439 / 1.5496H1 chart’s support levels: 1.5396 / 1.5346

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5439, take profit is at 1.5496, and stop loss is at 1.5383.

Felipe Erazo is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 30, 2015

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Gold technical analysis for April 30, 2015

Gold price could be forming a bullish flag. The price is sliding downwards and sideways. It is likely to be heading towards the 38% retracement at $1,200 but it looks like we could see another leg higher towards $1,250 specially if the price breaks above $1,215-22.

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Gold price will give a short-term buy signal if it breaks above this bullish flag pattern. The level to watch out for this potential break out is at $1,210. Strong resistance is also found at $1,222 where the previous high was. Breaking above the $1,222 high will be a strong buy signal with a target at $1,250. Support is at $1,190.

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Weekly chart remains bearish as price is below the Ichimoku cloud and below the kijun-sen. The price is above the tenkan-sen and the kijun-sen. Strong resistance is found at $1,222 where the previous high and rejection was and where the 50% retracement is found. Breaking above this level will push Gold price towards the 61.8% retracement. Critical support at $1,175.

Alexandros Yfantis is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

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Gold technical analysis for April 30, 2015

Crude Oil May Turn Lower, SPX 500 May Have Set a Double Top

Talking Points:

US Dollar Sinks to Lowest Level in Nearly Three Months

S&P 500 Double Top May Be Established Below 2200.00

Gold Stalls Above $1200/oz, Crude Oil May Turn Lower

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined for a sixth consecutive day, dropping to the weakest level in nearly three months. Near-term support is at 11754, the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 138.2% level at 11719. Alternatively, a rebound above the 100% Fib at 11809 clears the way for a test of the 76.4% threshold at 11864.

Crude Oil May Turn Lower, SPX 500 May Have Set a Double Top

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting a double top is forming at 2119.40 (February 25 high). Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2093.50 exposes the 50% level at 2083.50. Alternatively, a move above trend line resistance at 2108.50 targets 2119.40 anew.

Crude Oil May Turn Lower, SPX 500 May Have Set a Double Top

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to build upward anew after reclaiming a foothold above the $1200/oz figure. A break above the April 28 high at 1215.00 exposes the April 6 top at 1224.15. Alternatively, a turn below falling channel top resistance-turned-support at 1197.38 targets the March 31 low at 1178.38.

Crude Oil May Turn Lower, SPX 500 May Have Set a Double Top

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Negative RSI divergence hints prices may be readying to turn lower anew. A break below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 63.53 exposes the 23.6% level at 61.60. Alternatively, a move above the 76.4% Fib expansion at 66.16 targets the 100% threshold at 70.36.

Crude Oil May Turn Lower, SPX 500 May Have Set a Double Top

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Crude Oil May Turn Lower, SPX 500 May Have Set a Double Top

Yen Gains as Fed Fuels Risk Aversion, NZ Dollar Drops on RBNZ

Talking Points:

Yen Gains as Fed Stays the Course on Rate Hike Despite 1Q Slowdown

New Zealand Dollar Sinks as RBNZ Opens the Door for Policy Easing

Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Momentum in Eurozone Inflation Report

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.5 percent. The move mirrored a sharp drop on Asian stock exchanges, pointing to haven flows as the driver propelling the safety-linked currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell 0.5 percent in a move the news-wires attributed to the absence of overtly dovish rhetoric in the FOMC policy statement published earlier in the day.

The New Zealand Dollar tumbled, falling as much as 1.1 percent on average against its leading counterparts, after the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. The central bank signaled interest rate hikes were off the table and hinted it was considering lowering borrowing costs instead. The markets are pricing in at least one 25bps reduction in the baseline lending rate over the coming 12 months.

Looking ahead, the preliminary set of April’s Eurozone CPI figures are expected to show the year-on-year core inflation rate held at 0.6 percent, unchanged from the prior month. The result seems unlikely to meaningfully impact the Euro even in the event of a deviation from forecasts considering its limited impact on near-term ECB policy trends.The central bank appears essentially on auto-pilot as it proceeds with its €60 billion/month QE effort.

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Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Yen Gains as Fed Fuels Risk Aversion, NZ Dollar Drops on RBNZ

Denmark Jobless Rate Falls Slightly In March

Denmark’s unemployment dropped slightly in March, after remaining stable in the previous three months, figures from Statistics Denmark showed Thursday.

The seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 4.8 percent in March from 4.9 percent in February, the same rate as in the previous three months.

The number of unemployed people decreased to 127,100 in March from 128,600 in the preceding month.

The youth unemployment rate, which applies to the 16 to 24 age group, held steady for the fourth straight month in March at 3.2 percent.

Published: 2015-04-30 10:50:00 UTC+00

Denmark Jobless Rate Falls Slightly In March

Italy's Padoan says Window of Favourable Economic Conditions for Italy may Already be Closing

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Italy's Padoan says Window of Favourable Economic Conditions for Italy may Already be Closing

*S.Africa Mar PPI Up 1.8% On Month, Consensus 1.3%

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*S.Africa Mar PPI Up 1.8% On Month, Consensus 1.3%

*S.Africa Mar PPI Up 3.1% On Year Vs. 2.6% In Feb, Consensus 2.7%

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*S.Africa Mar PPI Up 3.1% On Year Vs. 2.6% In Feb, Consensus 2.7%

Hungary Sells 10yr Bonds at 3.45 Pct Avg Yield (pvs 3.28 Pct)

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Hungary Sells 10yr Bonds at 3.45 Pct Avg Yield (pvs 3.28 Pct)

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

South Korea Mar Service Sector Output Gr* Decrease to -0.4 % Vs Prev 1.6 %

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South Korea Mar Service Sector Output Gr* Decrease to -0.4 % Vs Prev 1.6 %

AUD/CHF: Technical Trades

What's Next For Euro?

Dollar Hit By Stalled U.S. Growth

EUR/USD Blows Through $1.1050

GBP/NZD: 2.0 For The Money

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for April 29, 2015

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Transient bearish pressure has been applied around 1.4960-1.5000 (38.2% Fibonacci level as well as previous weekly demand level).

Sideways movement with slight bearish tendency was expressed on the daily chart until a bullish breakout took place above 1.4970-1.5000 (via a Full-body bullish candlesticks).

The recently-established demand zone at 1.5000-1.5080 (38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) will probably provide significant bullish pressure for further retesting offering a valid long-term buy entry.

Persistence above the zone of 1.5000-1.5080 exposes the next weekly supply zone at 1.5500-1.5550 as depicted on the chart.

Note that the level of 1.5350 corresponds the previous consolidation range (February 2015). A risky intraday sell entry can be anticipated around the current prices.

On the other hand, the recent demand zone between 1.5000 and 1.5080 (38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) will probably offer a valid long-term buy entry as soon as retesting takes place.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for April 29, 2015