USDCAD Breakdown Stalls at Key Support- May Opening Range in Focus

Talking Points

• 
  USDCAD responds to key near-term support heading into month close
  


• 
  Scalps target rebound – rally to offer favorable shorts
  


• 
  Event Risk on TapThisWeek
  

USD/CAD Daily

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

• 
  USDCAD rebounds off key support confluence into 1.1976/88
  


• 
  Resistance eyed at weekly highs / ML confluence (highlighted region)
  


• 
  Broader outlook remains weighted to the downside below January median line (bearish invalidation)
  


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  Support break targets objectives at 1.1850 & 1.1726
  


• 
  Topside breach eyes resistance objectives at 1.2312 & 1.2384
  


• 
  Daily RSI resistance trigger pending
  


• 
  Event Risk Ahead: US ISM Manufacturing & Canada Manufacturing PMI tomorrow
  

USD/CAD 30min

Notes:The USDCAD has continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined median-line formation off the March 31st high with yesterday’s rebound off key daily support charging a rally back towards the upper MLP at 1.2150. A breach above this region risks a rally back towards the operative daily ML, currently around 1.2265 backed by the 23.6% retracement at 1.2311. Note that we are closing out April trade with the May opening range in focus as we head into next week.

Bottom line: looking for a resolution to this week’s range heading into May with a breach above targeting the January ML (favorable short entries?). Interim support 1.2068 backed by 1.1978 & this week’s low / ML support at 1.1944. A quarter of the daily ATR yields profit targets of 29-32 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into event risk out of the US & Canada tomorrow with the manufacturing data on tap for both counterparties likely to fuel added volatility in USD & CAD crosses.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

• 
  AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI
  


• 
  Scalp Webinar: USD Risks Fresh Lows Ahead of Slowing GDP, FOMC
  


• 
  GBPJPY Breakout Eyes 181- Long Scalps Favored Above 179
  


• 
  Scalp Webinar: USD Correction In Focus- Kiwi at Risk Sub 7700
  


• 
  NZDUSD Breakout Stalls at 7700 Resistance- Short Scalps Pending
  

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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USDCAD Breakdown Stalls at Key Support- May Opening Range in Focus