<!–TITOL:

CFTC Commitments of Traders Report – big shifts – TDS


FITITOL–>


FXStreet (Guatemala) – Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report for week ending Tuesday, April 28th – A sizable shifts in speculative positioning.

Key Quotes:


“CFTC data for the week through April 28th showed sizable shifts in speculative positioning. The most significant was a reduction in net EUR shorts of 17k contracts to –197.8k. The move precedes the impressive rally staged this week by EUR/USD in a move that was driven by the leveraged community. Leveraged funds have correctly anticipated moves in the currency.”


“Net shorts in JPY were also sizably pared back by 9k contracts to –5.5k. Over the month of April, net JPY shorts have been markedly scaled back and now sit close to neutral positioning—for the first time since late 2012. Like the EUR, leveraged funds accounted for the bulk of the shift and have correctly anticipated moves in USD/JPY.”


“Interestingly, GBP net shorts increased by 5k to –34k contracts. This move also precedes the significant selloff observed in cable late in the week and suggests that traders are positioning ahead of the May 7th UK election (which we think will have a very uncertain and likely not-so-friendly market outcome in the short-term).”


“CAD net shorts were sizably pared back by 6.1k contracts to –21k. The change comes as no surprise after key technical support was breached late last week. Leveraged funds accounted for most of the change. We anticipate that there will be a sizable shift in positioning in the next report given the buy-the-dip mentality that emerged earlier this week after a brief break below the 1.20 figure. Spot currently trades at 1.2160 and we see more upside from here.”


“Elsewhere, AUD net shorts were scaled back by 7.2k contracts to –27.4k. This is likely to unwind with the RBA meeting on May 5th and growing expectation that the cash rate will be cut (we look for 25bp of easing). NZD net longs increased by 1.7k contracts to10.2k but is also likely to have been scaled back following a dovish tone from the RBNZ.”


“MXN net shorts extended for a second consecutive week, increasing by 9.7k to –23.4k.”


“Overall, the theme of the report can generally be characterized as paring back USD longs. We estimate that this is USD34.7bn (from USD37.7bn last week). Given price-action to end the week, the next report is likely to show an increase.”