EUR/USD Current price: 1.3012
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Long day with loads of data, headlines and large moves, ended up with the EUR/USD closing again around the 1.3000 area. The European morning was dominated by optimism, after the UK avoided a triple dip recession with a quarterly positive GDP reading: the EUR/USD run to a daily high of 1.3092, where selling interest resumed, and the pair retraced as investors began to price in a rate cut next week. Better than expected US weekly unemployment claims may have supported stocks, but the Euro extended its slide for most of the American afternoon. Stocks, finally gave a good part of their intraday gains, on news German Bundesbank criticized the euro rescue policy attacking OTM’s, although the EUR barely responded to the news.
As for the technical picture, the pair remains trapped in the range that dominated for most of the last two week, the Fibonacci levels at 1.2970 and 1.3315. And seems unlikely it will leave it before next week when Central Banks meeting and US NFP data will probably offer a clearer picture of economic health among major economies. In the meantime, expect buyers to surge on dips towards 1.2970 area and on a break above 1.3040 during current Asian session.
Support levels: 1.3000 1.2970 1.2925
Resistance levels: 1.3040 1.3070 1.3115
EUR/JPY Current price: 129.23
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The EUR/JPY maintains the neutral stance, holding above 128.80 support, yet unable to extend gains beyond 130.00. The hourly chart shows price breaking a short term ascendant trend line trough lateralization, which diminishes the probability of a slide, yet price stands below 100 SMA, actually offering dynamic resistance around 129.45, while indicators head south below their midlines. In bigger time frames, the pair starts to look heavy, with lower highs daily basis and indicators turning south; still, only below 127.70 area, the pair could actually enter a bearish larger movement.
Support levels: 129.10 128.80 128.20
Resistance levels: 129.45 130.10 130.60
GBP/USD Current price: 1.5434
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The GBP/USD added over 160 pips with the release of the UK first quarter GDP, and managed to hold to its gains during past session: the pair broke and stands above the 38.2% retracement of the latest daily fall around 1.5420 and immediate support, with the hourly chart showing technical indicators slowly correcting extreme overbought readings and 20 SMA heading strongly up below current price. In the 4 hours chart, technical readings also lost upward momentum in overbought territory, but as long as price holds above mentioned support, the upside continues to be favored. 1.5490 comes as immediate resistance, and steady gains above the level should favor a rally towards the 1.56 area over the next sessions.
Support levels: 1.5430 1.5370 1.5330
Resistance levels: 1.5450 1.5490 1.5540
USD/JPY Current price: 99.30
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Barely changed from the American session opening, the USD/JPY continues finding short term resistance in its 100 SMA a few pips above current level in the hourly chart. A slightly bearish tone persists as the pair failed to break above 100.00 discouraging buyers in the pair, although there are no signs current trend is over, and dips are still seen as buying opportunities.
Support levels: 98.90 98.60 98.20
Resistance levels: 99.35 99.70 100.00
AUD/USD: Current price: 1.0293
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Australian dollar momentum early Thursday helped the pair test the 1.0335 resistance area, from where a slow but steady slide began. Trading below the 1.0300 level, the pair is finding short term support in an ascendant trend line coming from 1.0230, with the hourly chart showing price below 20 SMA and indicators in negative territory. In the 4 hours chart momentum eases and approaches its midline, while 20 SMA stands around 1.0260, offering dynamic support: a break below this last should put the pair under selling pressure back towards the 1.0200/20 price zone.
Support levels: 1.0260 1.0220 1.0180
Resistance levels: 1.0300 1.0335 1.0370
EUR underperforms, GBP leads
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