Week ahead in the Fx Market

MONDAY, OCT. 28:

• A report from the Fed on Monday on September factory output is expected to show a modest 0.4 percent gain. At the same time, new claims for jobless benefits are seen receding further as California clears a backlog of new filings caused by a computer glitch, which would suggest that the labor market hasn’t crumbled, and core consumer prices are seen up a trend-like 0.2 percent.


• On the data front, the Federal Reserve will issue industrial production and capacity use data for September.


• Argentina will release September industrial production data.

TUESDAY, OCT 29:

• The U.S. economy appears to have ended the third quarter on a weak note, which would be underscored if economists are correct in predicting that a report on September retail sales on Tuesday will show a gain of just 0.1 percent. 


• The big question is how much damage was done by the government shutdown. 


• Other Canadian data out next week include producer and raw material price reports on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 30:

• The Federal Reserve is expected to stay the course on asset buying at its meeting this week and keep its forward guidance on interest rates unchanged as policymakers wait for more evidence on how the U.S. government shutdown in October and uncertainty over the debt limit affected growth in the fourth quarter. 


• Tepid data since the central bank surprised markets in September by not reducing its $85 billion-a-month bond buying pace has encouraged views that no change will be seen until early 2014. 


• The two-day meeting wraps up with an announcement at 2 p.m. on Wednesday.

THURSDAY, OCT. 31:

• Data out on Thursday is expected to show that the Canadian economy expanded a modest 0.2 percent in August from a month earlier, well down from the strong 0.6 percent gain seen in July. 


• A weak reading would support the rationale for the Bank of Canada’s recent dovish policy shift, which has pushed rate hike expectations further into the future and knocked the Canadian dollar lower. 

FRIDAY, NOV. 1:

• Economists expect the ISM report on October factory activity on Friday to soften but to remain in expansion territory.


• Other Canadian data out next week include manufacturing PMI numbers on Friday.

Published: 2013-10-25 22:04:00 UTC+00

Week ahead in the Fx Market