Friday, February 28, 2014

Forex Weekly Trading Forecast: Risk Trends Breakout before a Week of NFPs and ECB




US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar Risks Plunge as SPX Hits a Record, EURUSD Tests 1.3800



The dollar’s recovery effort fell apart this past week as a record push for the S&P 500 spawned ‘risk appetite’ headlines and the market’s Taper interests continued to fade.



British Pound Forecast – GBP to Target Higher High on BoE Policy Outlook; 1.6850-60 in Sight



The British Pound looks well on its way to fresh highs as we see a growing number of Bank of England (BoE) officials prepare U.K. households for an imminent rise in borrowing costs.



Japanese Yen Forecast – Yen Crosses May Revive Equities Correlation…On a Collapse



The Japanese yen put in for a mixed performance this past week versus its major counterparts. Yet, such a performance is much more disconcerting than the benign picture it seems to put on.



Australian Dollar Forecast – AUD vulnerable as Risk Sentiment Sours Anew



The week ahead promises to be action-packed for the Australian Dollar, with a slew of catalysts on the domestic and the global front due to cross the wires.



Gold Forecast – Gold at Resistance Heading Into March- All Eyes on Central Banks, NFPs



Gold prices were virtually unchanged on the week with prices holding just below key resistance to trade at $1322 ahead of the New York close on Friday.


Forex_Weekly_Trading_Forecast_Risk_Trends_Breakout_before_a_Week_of_NFPs_and_ECB___body_Picture_1.png, Forex Weekly Trading Forecast: Risk Trends Breakout before a Week of NFPs and ECB



How does a Currency War affect your FX trading?



Written by the DailyFX Research Team. To sign up for a weekly e-mail with our currency outlooks, go to our page for forex news delivered to your inbox.





Forex Weekly Trading Forecast: Risk Trends Breakout before a Week of NFPs and ECB

China Feb Nbs Manufacturing Pmi Decrease to 50.2 (fcast 50.1 ) Vs Prev 50.5



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China Feb Nbs Manufacturing Pmi Decrease to 50.2 (fcast 50.1 ) Vs Prev 50.5

South Korea Feb Export Growth Increase to 1.6 % (fcast 3.4 %) Vs Prev -0.2 %



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South Korea Feb Export Growth Increase to 1.6 % (fcast 3.4 %) Vs Prev -0.2 %

South Korea Feb Import Growth Increase to 4.0 % (fcast 2.8 %) Vs Prev -1.0 %



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South Korea Feb Import Growth Increase to 4.0 % (fcast 2.8 %) Vs Prev -1.0 %

South Korea Feb Trade Balance Increase to 0.93 Bln $ Vs Prev 0.76 Bln $



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South Korea Feb Trade Balance Increase to 0.93 Bln $ Vs Prev 0.76 Bln $

For the Week, the Dow up 1.4 Pct, the S&P up 1.3 Pct, the Nasdaq up 1 Pct



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For the Week, the Dow up 1.4 Pct, the S&P up 1.3 Pct, the Nasdaq up 1 Pct

Trading Sentiment Using DailyFX?s Trading Signals




Retail trader sentiment is my favorite tool when it comes to trading Forex. I’ve spoken about this in my live webinars and in my DailyFX articles. Our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) gives us a ratio of how many FXCM retail traders are currently long and short each major currency pair and we generally try to take the trade opposite of the majority. The logic is that most retail traders lose money by trying to pick tops and bottoms with countertrend trades. So if we take trades that oppose this group of retail traders, in the long run we could see an advantage.



To take SSI one step further, DailyFX.com has created trading signals that follow these principals with clear buy and sell signals. The screenshot below shows an example of how the trading signals are displayed on DailyFX Plus.



Learn Forex: DailyFX Plus Trading Signals Using SSI


Trading_Sentiment_Using_DailyFX_Trading_Signals_body_Picture_1.png, Trading Sentiment Using DailyFX’s Trading Signals



Each signal tells us the time the signal was given with an entry price range we should look to receive. If the current price is still within the given range, the signal is still valid to trade. If the price has moved outside of the entry price range, we most likely missed the opportunity. Each trade also has managing orders we can attach to our trade to manage it properly (stops/limits).



There is a login required to access these trading signals. The first way you can get a login is by having a FXCM real-money trading account. Your login would simply be your account number in that case. The second way you can access these signals is by becoming a monthly subscriber @ $19.99/mo. Once you log in, you will also have access to receive these trading signals by E-mail or SMS alerts.



There is also a way we can automate these signals so that they are placed on our account automatically. For more information on automating using SSI, check out FXCM’s Mirror Trader platform. You can register for an automated demo account here.



—Written by Rob Pasche



To contact Rob, email rpasche@dailyfx.com.





Trading Sentiment Using DailyFX?s Trading Signals

CAD Mixed After Confusing GDP Report



Canadian coins on Canadian dollar billsThe report about Canada’s economic growth was mixed and did not provide a clear picture of the nation’s economic health. As a result, the Canadian dollar rose against its US peer, fell versus the euro and was little changed against the Japanese yen.


Canada’s gross domestic product expanded 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 from a year ago. The growth was faster than the third quarter’s 2.7 percent. Quarter-on-quarter, the pace of expansion stayed at 0.7 percent. On a monthly basis, GDP contracted 0.5 percent in December from November.


The mixed data did not help the loonie to establish a clear trend. Yet analysts became more optimistic regarding the currency, believing that the Canadian economy should fare a bit better in the future.


USD/CAD declined from 1.1119 to close at 1.1072 today. EUR/CAD was up from 1.5245 to settle at 1.5283, reaching 1.5390 — the highest rate since December 2009. CAD/JPY closed at 91.88, not far from the opening of 91.80


If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar,


feel free to post them using the commentary form below.





CAD Mixed After Confusing GDP Report

Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Threatening Big Break




Talking Points



  • EUR/USD testing key resistance


  • USD/JPY nearing important directional move


  • GOLD stalls at major retracement


Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.



Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:



Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD


Weekly_PT_FEB_28_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Threatening Big Break


Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr



  • EUR/USD touched its highest level since late December this week


  • A weekly close above the 2013 closing high near 1.3800 will shift our trend bias to positive


  • Under 1.3640 is needed to re-instill any sort of downside momentum


  • The next cycle turn window or importance is seen around the middle of March


Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Clinging to tactical short positions against a daily close over 1.3800.



Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY


Weekly_PT_FEB_28_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Threatening Big Break


Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr



  • USD/JPY remains range bound below key Gann resistance at 102.75


  • Our broader bias is negative in the rate while below 104.40


  • The 100.80 level remains a key downside pivot that needs to be breached soon on a daily close to undermine the positive cyclicality of the early February low


  • A minor cycle turn window is seen next week, but the next cycle inflection point of significance looks to be around middle of March


  • A weekly close back over 104.40 would turn us positive again on USD/JPY


Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: We like the short side in USD/JPY while below 104.40.



Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD


Weekly_PT_FEB_28_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Threatening Big Break


Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr



  • XAU/USD probed above the 61.8% retracement of the August to December decline at 1336 to trade at its highest level since late October


  • Our broader trend bias remains positive in the metal while above the 1×2 Gann angle line of the 2013 closing low now near 1295


  • The 1336 level is remains key resistance with a close over this level needed to signal that a new leg higher is underway


  • A minor cycle turn window is seen mid-week


  • A daily close under 1295 would turn us negative on Gold


Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like being long while over 1295.



Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved



To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.



To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX





Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Threatening Big Break

U.s. Stocks Turn Negative; Tech Shares Lead Losses



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U.s. Stocks Turn Negative; Tech Shares Lead Losses

Ukraine Acting President Accuses Russia of Working on a Scenario Like Before War With Georgia



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Ukraine Acting President Accuses Russia of Working on a Scenario Like Before War With Georgia

EURUSD trading near the 1.3800 level ahead of the US Preliminary GDP data




EURUSD trading near the 1.3800 level ahead of the US Preliminary GDP data

EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.3709. The single European currency strengthened against its US counterpart after worse than expected US Unemployment Claims data and comments from the Fed chief Janet Yellen. In her testimony Janet Yellen opined that the unusual cold weather has played a role in the recent worse than expected US data. Yellen confirmed that the US central bank would continue tapering its QE measure in the upcoming policy meeting even if the labour market shows some signs of weakness in the recovery. The Unemployment Claims in the United States rose to a reading of 348K during the last week.


Data released today showed that the Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate year over year remained steady at 0.8 percent in February. Investors are now looking forward for the Preliminary GDP report from the United States as well as the Chicago PMI and the Pending Home Sales month over month report.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.3696 and resistance is seen at 1.3805. The HotForex Traders Board shows that 78 percent of the traders are short on the EURUSD.




Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.






EURUSD trading near the 1.3800 level ahead of the US Preliminary GDP data

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Price & Time: Key Time Period Here for AUD/USD




Talking Points



  • USD/JPY setting for an important move


  • NZD/USD entering into important cycle turn window


  • Watching the weekly in AUD/USD


Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.



Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:



Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY


PT_FEB_28_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Key Time Period Here for AUD/USD



Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr



  • USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 102.75


  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 101.35


  • A daily close over 102.75 is needed to set off a more important advance


  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week


  • A daily close below 101.35 will turn us negative on USD/JPY


USD/JPY Strategy: Square in this range. Break of 102.75 or 101.35 will force us in.



Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD


PT_FEB_28_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Key Time Period Here for AUD/USD



Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr



  • NZD/USD probed above the 4th square root relationship of the year’s low at .8405 today to trade at its highest level since mid-January


  • Our near-term trend bias is positive on the Bird while above .8360


  • The year’s high and the 78.6% retracement of the Oct/Feb decline between .8430/40 is important resistance


  • An important cycle turn window is seen over the next few days


  • A daily close under .8360 will turn us negative on the Kiwi


NZD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over .8360, but positions should be reduced into this turn window. Will look to cover and go short on a move through .8360.



Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD


PT_FEB_28_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Key Time Period Here for AUD/USD



Two key “Pi cycle” relationships related to the 2011 high and 2001 low in AUD/USD converged this week. We have purposely neglected to mention them until now because we are unsure what they mean for the exchange rate and were hoping to get more clarity by observing the daily price action. It still remains unclear. We do suspect that following such a clear convergence of major cyclical relationships that this time period will ultimately prove to be a very important inflection point for the Aussie. However, we now have to defer to the weekly charts for directional clarity. This week’s low of .8900 and last week’s high of .9080 are key pivots. A clear break of this week’s low will confirm that an important top is in place and set the stage for a resumption of the broader decline. Conversely, a move back through .9080 would confirm that a low of importance has been recorded in AUD/USD. A Pi cycle relationship related to the 2011 high in NZD/USD hits early next week. Perhaps the Aussie is waiting for its Antipodean cousin to show the way?



To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.



Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com



This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.



To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX





Price & Time: Key Time Period Here for AUD/USD

Polish Growth Accelerates, Increases Attractiveness of Zloty



Multiple zloty banknotesThe Polish zloty gained today as nation’s economic growth accelerating, demonstrating that the economy is on track to recovery. The data suggests that an interest rate hike may happen very soon, adding to the attractiveness of the currency.


Poland’s Central Statistical Office reported that gross domestic product rose 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 from a year ago after increasing 1.8 percent in the third quarter. The economy expanded 0.8 percent last quarter from the previous three months. Growth gained momentum thanks to the relatively low interest rates and the general recovery of European economies.


USD/PLN fell from 3.0353 to 3.0211 as of 11:36 GMT today.


If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Polish Zloty,


feel free to post them using the commentary form below.





Polish Growth Accelerates, Increases Attractiveness of Zloty

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 28, 2014



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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 28, 2014

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 28, 2014



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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 28, 2014

Forex: USD/JPY Technical Analysis ? Bearish Reversal in Progress?




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Talking Points:



  • USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat


  • Support: 101.71-88 (23.6% Fib exp., trend line), 101.03 (38.2% Fib exp.)


  • Resistance: 102.82 (Feb 21 high)


Prices are once again testing below supportat a rising trend line set from early October (now at 101.88), a barrier reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 101.71. A break below the latter barrier initially exposes the 38.2% level at 101.03. Near-term resistance is at 102.82, the February 21 high.



Confirmation of a downside breakout requires a daily close below support, which remains absent for the time being. This suggests it is premature to enter short for now. On the other hand, a long position would require taking as given the still baseless assumption that support will hold. On balance, we will opt not to force the issue and wait for greater clarify before taking a trade.



Confirm your chart-based trade setups with the Technical Analyzer. New to FX? Start Here!


dailyclassics_usd-jpy_body_Picture_11.png, Forex: USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Bearish Reversal in Progress?


Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0



— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com





Forex: USD/JPY Technical Analysis ? Bearish Reversal in Progress?

Fundamentals Do Not Favor Aussie



Australian coins and banknotesThe Australian dollar slipped today, falling against the Japanese yen, as most fundamentals were not in favor of risk-related currencies. The Aussie was almost flat against its US counterpart, which was hurt by poor economic reports from the United States.


There are plenty of reasons for riskier currencies, and the Australian one in particular, to fall. The general risk negative sentiment of the Forex market is one of such reasons, while prospects for continuing tapering by the US Federal Reserve is another. Domestic economic data was not helping either as it shows that country’s economic growth is feeble.


AUD/USD slipped a bit from 0.8964 to 0.8958 as of 10:10 GMT today. AUD/JPY declined from 91.53 to 91.21, touching the low of 90.80 intraday.


If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Australian Dollar,


feel free to post them using the commentary form below.





Fundamentals Do Not Favor Aussie

*Italy Feb. HICP Inflation At 0.5% Vs. 0.6% In January, Consensus 0.6%



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*Italy Feb. HICP Inflation At 0.5% Vs. 0.6% In January, Consensus 0.6%

*Italy Feb. CPI -0.1% M-o-M Vs. +0.2% In January, Consensus +0.1%



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*Italy Feb. CPI -0.1% M-o-M Vs. +0.2% In January, Consensus +0.1%

*Italy Feb. CPI Inflation At 0.5% Vs. 0.7% In January, Consensus 0.7%



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*Italy Feb. CPI Inflation At 0.5% Vs. 0.7% In January, Consensus 0.7%

Eurozone January Jobless Rate Steady At 12%



The euro area unemployment rate has remained at 12 percent since October, data from Eurostat revealed Friday. The rate matched economists’ expectations.


In January, 19.17 million people were unemployed in the euro area. The number of people out of work increased 17,000 from December, while it fell 67,000 from January 2013.


The youth unemployment rate also held steady at 24 percent in January.


Among the member states, the lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Austria, Germany and Luxembourg. The highest rate was reported in Greece, at 28 percent in November.



Published: 2014-02-28 10:29:00 UTC+00







Eurozone January Jobless Rate Steady At 12%

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Forex: NZD/USD Technical Analysis ? Upside Breakout at Hand?




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Talking Points:



  • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Pending Long


  • Support: 0.8301 (23.6% Fib exp.), 0.8246 (38.2% Fib exp.)


  • Resistance: 0.8336 (14.6% Fib exp.), 0.8382 (trend line, horizontal pivot)


The New Zealand Dollar may be on the verse of a major breakout against its US counterpart. Prices are testing above resistance at 0.8380, the intersection of a falling trend line set from mid-October and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close above this barrier initially exposes the 50% level at 0.8481. Near-term support is at 0.8254, the 23.6% Fib.



Confirmation of a breakout is pending for now and we will wait for that to materialize before looking for a long trade setup. Needless to say, pursing a short position that assumes resistance will necessarily hold is premature at this point. We will monitor price action from the sidelines for now.



Confirm your chart-based trade setups with the Technical Analyzer. New to FX? Start Here!


dailyclassics_nzd-usd_body_Picture_11.png, Forex: NZD/USD Technical Analysis – Upside Breakout at Hand?



Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0



— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com





Forex: NZD/USD Technical Analysis ? Upside Breakout at Hand?

Yen Rallies vs. Dollar as Tensions in Ukraine Escalate



1,000 and 10,000 Japanese yen notesThe Japanese yen rallied against the US dollar yesterday and continue to gain today as the political turmoil in Ukraine feeds the risk-negative mood on financial markets. The currency also rallied against the euro and the Great Britain pound.


The political tension intensified as the separatists in Crimea were speaking that the region should leave Ukraine and perhaps join Russia. Russian military forces started military exercises in the western regions of the country. The chances of war are perceived to be slim as of now, but the threat of conflict escalation still fuels fears, making investors to stick to safer assets.


The yen gained on the dollar also because of poor economic data from the United States. The Japanese currency rallied versus the euro on speculations that the European Central Bank will add stimulus on the next week’s policy meeting.


USD/JPY declined from 102.11 to 101.86 as of 2:31 GMT today. EUR/JPY dropped from 139.98 to 139.61 and GBP/JPY went down from 170.41 to 169.94.


If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Japanese Yen,


feel free to post them using the commentary form below.





Yen Rallies vs. Dollar as Tensions in Ukraine Escalate

Order Types for Forex




Talking Points:



  • There are 3 basic classifications of order types for Forex


  • Market orders execute at the current price


  • Entry orders are set away from the market to execute at a later time


A trader has many tools at their disposal in order to trade the strategy of their choosing. These tools come in the way of different orders that allow the trader to enter and exit the market at their convenience. Today we will look at three of the prevailing order types used by Forex traders.


Order_Types_for_Forex_body_Picture_2.png, Order Types for Forex



Market Orders



The market order is probably the most basic and often the first order type traders come across. Just as the name implies, market orders are traded at market! This means if you want to get into the market immediately, you can trade a market order and be entered at the prevailing price.



Typically scalpers and day traders rely on market orders to enter and exit the market quickly, in accordance to their strategy. To find out more about trading with market orders, read through the material at the DailyFX University linked below.



Learn more about executing Market orders HERE!



Entry Orders



The next order type is the entry order. These orders are unique in that they can be set away from present market prices. If price trades at the price selected, the entry will enter the market and open a new position. There are many benefits to trading with entries, including not having to be in front of your computer to execute your orders!



Normally entry orders can be used for breakouts or with other strategies that demand execution when price passes a certain point. To learn more on trading entry orders click the link to the FXCM University below.



Learn about trading and executing Entry orders HERE!



Stops & Limits



Stops and limits are orders that everyone should familiarize themselves with. While stops and limits are technically entry orders, they deserve special attention due to their importance. In Forex a stop is an order used to manage risk being placed away from the positions entry point. Likewise Limits are placed away from entries but are used as an order to take profit.



Since Stops and Limits in Forex operate differently from Stop and Limit orders in the equities market we suggest reading up on their uses. For more information on this order type, click the link below to find an article and video on the DailyFX University.



Learn to set Stops and Limits with this video at the DailyFX University!



The only way you can get comfortable with using different types of orders is to practice trading with them. Once you have read about all of the orders available, trade them on a demo account. You can sign up for a FREE Forex Demo account with FXCM and try them out immediately!



—Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor



To contact Walker, emailwengland@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter at @WEnglandFX.



To be added to Walker’s e-mail distribution list,CLICK HEREand enter in your email information



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Order Types for Forex

Domestic Fundamentals Hurt Dollar Yet Again



The US dollar fell today as economic data from the United States was negative yet again. The currency dropped despite the risk-aversion sentiment on the Forex market and signs that the Federal Reserve will continue to reduce monetary stimulus.


Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose from 334,000 to 348,000 last week. Most analysts thought that unemployment claims would stay unchanged. The data followed yesterday’s positive employment report that helped the dollar to gain.


Fed Chairwomen Janet Yellen spoke today, admitting that unexpectedly poor weather affected the economic performance. She stayed optimistic about the future of the US economy:


My colleagues on the FOMC and I anticipate that economic activity and employment will expand at a moderate pace this year and next, the unemployment rate will continue to decline toward its longer-run sustainable level, and inflation will move back toward 2 percent over coming years.



EUR/USD was up from 1.3684 to 1.3706 as of 23:53 GMT today following the drop to 1.3642. GBP/USD rose from 1.6668 to 1.6689, rebounding from the decline to 1.6615. USD/JPY dropped from 102.35 to 102.09, reaching the low of 101.71 intraday.


If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the US Dollar,


feel free to post them using the commentary form below.





Domestic Fundamentals Hurt Dollar Yet Again

*Australia Private Sector Credit +0.4% On Month, +4.1% On Year In January



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*Australia Private Sector Credit +0.4% On Month, +4.1% On Year In January

*NZ Dollar Jumps To 0.8396 Against US Dollar, Highest Since Jan. 14



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*NZ Dollar Jumps To 0.8396 Against US Dollar, Highest Since Jan. 14

United Kingdom Feb Gfk Consumer Confidence Stays Flat at -7 (fcast -7 ) Vs Prev -7



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United Kingdom Feb Gfk Consumer Confidence Stays Flat at -7 (fcast -7 ) Vs Prev -7

EUR/USD: dollar turns south on Yellen


EUR/USD Current price: 1.3713


View Live Chart for the EUR/USD


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The EUR/USD trades back above the 1.3700 figure, as dollar turned strongly south during the US session. Risk aversion was reverted by negative US data and Janet Yellen giving small hopes to the possibility of a pause in tapper. The EUR/USD hourly chart shows price halted a few pips above the 61.8% retracement of the latest bearish run, with price now above its 20 SMA and indicators losing upward potential yet holding in positive territory. Having posted a lower low daily basis however, keeps chances of further recoveries limited for now: steady gains above 1.3720 are required to confirm a leg higher, looking for a test of 1.3750/70 price zone. 4 hours chart shows the technical picture is still bearish, with a break below 1.3690 point for another run towards 1.3650 price zone.


Support levels: 1.3690 1.3650 1.3615 


Resistance levels: 1.3725 1.3770 1.3810



EUR/JPY Current price: 139.98


View Live Chart for the EUR/JPY


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The EUR/JPY fell all the way down to 138.78 on risk sentiment, albeit recovered strongly following US indexes, finding some sellers in the 140.00 price zone. The hourly chart shows price halting below moving averages with 100 and 200 SMAs converging around 140.40 also strong static resistance area, and indicators surging up to neutral territory from oversold levels. A recovery above that level should favor an approach to 141.00 price zone, but if price falls back below 139.60, the bearish momentum with likely extend towards mentioned lows.


Support levels: 139.60 139.20 138.70


Resistance levels: 140.00 140.40 140.85 



GBP/USD Current price: 1.6685


View Live Chart for the GBP/USD


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Pound recovered some ground against the greenback, although remained contained as commented on previous update between Fibonacci levels: trading right below the 23.6% of its latest bullish run around 1.6690. The hourly chart shows price above its 20 SMA and indicators in positive territory showing limited strength at the time being, while the 4 hours chart maintains a neutral technical stance.  Considering price developments the upside is favored at least in the short term, towards 1.6745 static resistance.


Support levels:  1.6650 1.6610 1.6580 


Resistance levels: 1.6690 1.6745 1.6790 



USD/JPY Current price: 102.05


View Live Chart for the USD/JPY


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Despite recovering above 102.00, the USD/JPY technical picture suggest risk remains to the downside in the short term: the hourly chart shows price developing below moving averages, faltering around 102.20, while indicators already corrected oversold levels and hold below their midlines. In the 4 hours chart indicators also stand below their midlines and price below moving averages, with only a clear recovery above 102.40 denying the possibility of more slides.


Support levels: 102.00 101.70 101.35 


Resistance levels: 102.40 102.80 103.20 



AUD/USD Current price: 0.8960


View Live Chart for the AUD/USD


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The AUD/USD trades intraday unchanged after dipping to a fresh 3 week low of 0.8902. Saved by dollar turn, the hourly chart shows price above 20 SMA and indicators turning flat right above their midlines, while the 4 hours chart shows price remains well below 20 SMA and indicators in negative territory, suggesting current upward movement could well be just corrective: price needs to regain at least the 0.9000 figure to be able to recover past weeks bullish momentum, and the downside should remain contained by mentioned daily low. 


Support levels: 0.8940 0.8900 0.8870 


Resistance levels: 0.8990 0.9020 0.9060
















































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EUR/USD: dollar turns south on Yellen

Swiss Franc Reversal Likely in Place



ssi_usd-chf_body_Picture_16.png, Swiss Franc Reversal Likely in Place


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Swiss FrancRetail FX trading crowds are at their most long the US Dollar versus the Swiss Franc on record, and we see important risk of a price and sentiment extreme.



Trade Implications – USDCHF: Our data shows that crowds are often their most long at price lows, but major turning points are only visible in hindsight. Our purely sentiment-based Momentum2 strategy has already gone long from SFr 0.8919. We’ll need to see the USDCHF clear important resistance at SFr 0.8940 to confirm the reversal.



Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com


ssi_usd-chf_body_Picture_11.png, Swiss Franc Reversal Likely in Place



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Swiss Franc Reversal Likely in Place

EURUSD trading lower in the European session. US Core Durable Goods Orders rose in January.




EURUSD trading lower in the European session. US Core Durable Goods Orders rose in January.

EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.3685. The New Home Sales in the United States rose to a reading of 468K in January. The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Dallas Richard Fisher hinted that Fed is going to continue tapering the size of its asset purchase program in the future policy meetings unless there is a significant correction in the nation stock market. The Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto also opined that the central bank should keep reducing the size of its asset purchase program as long as the job gains continue and the economy growth meets the expectations.


In a release today the Unemployment Claims in the United States rose slightly during the previous week, but on the other side the Core Durable Goods Orders recorded a gain of 1.1 percent in January.


Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.3645 and resistance is seen at 1.3747. The HotForex Traders Board shows that 54 percent of the traders are short on the EURUSD.








EURUSD trading lower in the European session. US Core Durable Goods Orders rose in January.

Brazilian Central Bank Raises Interest Rate, Real Gains



20 and 50 real billsThe Brazilian real rose today after Brazil’s central bank raised the Selic rate yesterday, extending the string of rate increases. The increase was smaller than last month’s one, leading to concerns that the central bank will pause rate hikes. Still, the nation’s economy looks good, meaning that Brazil’s currency is still attractive to overseas investors.


The Central Bank of Brazil boosted its main interest rate by 0.25 percent to 10.75 percent on yesterday’s policy meeting. Brazil’s economy returned to growth and inflation accelerated, easing worries about potential reduction of the sovereign credit rating. This allowed the real to rally 3 percent in February.


USD/BRL was down from 2.3510 to 2.3322 as of 16:48 GMT today.


If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Brazilian Real,


feel free to post them using the commentary form below.





Brazilian Central Bank Raises Interest Rate, Real Gains

EUR/USD: US data halts dollar run


EUR/USD Current price: 1.3673


View Live Chart for the EUR/USD


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The EUR/USD fell to a fresh 2 week low of 1.3642 in the European session, weighted mostly by risk aversion, as conflict in Russia and Ukraine continues to scale. But US disappointing data has halted safe havens run, as both Durable Orders and unemployment claims missed expectations. Ahead of US opening, the hourly chart shows price now being capped by a bearish 20 SMA around 1.3680 immediate resistance, as indicators remain in negative territory, having already corrected oversold conditions. In the 4 hours chart technical readings maintain a negative tone, albeit price bounced back above its 200 EMA, battling around it. European indexes trade in red, and if US ones follow their counterparts, there’s little room for EUR gains despite data today.


Support levels: 1.3650 1.3615 1.3580


Resistance levels: 1.3695 1.3730 1.3770 



GBP/USD Current price: 1.6662


View Live Chart for the GBP/USD


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The GBP/USD trades in a pretty well contained range, in between Fibonacci levels, with the hourly chart showing not much definition as indicators remain in neutral territory, with price now struggling to overcome a flat 20 SMA. In the 4 hours chart continued ranging has also left indicators neutral with a break above 1.6720 or below 1.6590 required to set a direction.


Support levels:  1.6610 1.6580 1.6550


Resistance levels: 1.6690 1.6745 1.6790 



USD/JPY Current price: 102.11


View Live Chart for the USD/JPY


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The USD/JPY sunk to 101.71 on risk aversion, where 100 DMA acted as dynamic intraday support, now recovering above the 102.00 mark. The hourly chart shows indicators still aiming higher in negative territory after correcting oversold readings, while price stands well below moving averages, unable to firm up above yesterday’s low. In the 4 hours chart technical readings maintain a negative tone, that favor another test of mentioned daily low as long as 102.40 caps the upside.


Support levels: 102.00 101.70 101.35 


Resistance levels: 102.40 102.80 103.20 



AUD/USD Current price: 0.8935


View Live Chart for the AUD/USD


a


Australian dollar extended its fall against the greenback, maintaining the negative bias as per the hourly chart showing price capped below 20 SMA and indicators holding in negative territory. However the pair, found buyers around 0.8900, again bouncing from a round figure. Nevertheless, the downside continues to be favored, as the 4 hours chart also presents a bearish tone, with key 0.8820 static support now at sight.


Support levels: 0.8900 0.8870 0.8820


Resistance levels: 0.8940 0.8990 0.9020 
















































Follow our EUR USD, GBP USD, USD JPY, USD CHF and USD CAD daily updates.



EUR/USD: US data halts dollar run

Forex: US Dollar Technical Analysis ? Larger Rebound Under Way?




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Talking Points:



  • US Dollar Technical Strategy: Holding Long via Mirror Trader Basket **


  • Support: 10551 (trend line from Sep’12)


  • Resistance: 10614 (23.6% Fib exp.), 10673 (38.2% Fib exp.)


The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index is continues to push higher after producing the strongest gain in a month yesterday as prices recoil from support at a rising trend line set from September 2012. A break above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 10614 exposes the 38.2% level at 10673. The trend line is now at 10551.



Near-term price action is beginning to turn consistent with our long-term view, which still favors broad-based US Dollar strength in the months ahead. As such, we will continue to hold long USD via the Mirror Trader US Dollar currency basket. **


dailyclassics_us_dollar_index_body_Picture_12.png, Forex: US Dollar Technical Analysis – Larger Rebound Under Way?


Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0



** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.



— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com





Forex: US Dollar Technical Analysis ? Larger Rebound Under Way?

Euro Drops with Speculation on Next Week’s ECB Meeting



A fan of 500-euro billsEurozone lending continues to be a problem, and that has some thinking that the ECB will have no choice but to ease monetary policy further when they meet next week. It’s also not helping that China is slowing down, and that it appears that Germany isn’t going to be able to kickstart the economy all on its own.



The latest numbers on lending in the eurozone paint a picture of a credit situation that is still very clogged. Lending to firms and households in the 18-nation currency region dropped in January, even though the European Central Bank has been taking steps to increase liquidity. The latest inflation figure also comes in at right around 0.8 per cent, which is well below the ECB target of 2 per cent.


With all of this disappointment in how things are going with the eurozone economy, there is a great deal of speculation that the ECB will have to take more steps to stimulate the economy at its next meeting. That has the euro weakening. Also putting pressure on the euro is general risk aversion, brought on by the slowdown in China.


At 13:57 GMT EUR/USD is down to 1.3673 from the open at 1.3686. EUR/GBP is down to 0.8204 from the open at 0.8209. EUR/JPY is down to 139.5555 from the open at 140.0915.


If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Euro,


feel free to post them using the commentary form below.





Euro Drops with Speculation on Next Week’s ECB Meeting

Ukraine to Discuss New Financial Aid Package from Imf of at Least $15 Billion - Finance Minister



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Ukraine to Discuss New Financial Aid Package from Imf of at Least $15 Billion - Finance Minister

U.s. Dollar Hits Session Low Versus Swiss Franc



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U.s. Dollar Hits Session Low Versus Swiss Franc

*Dollar Slips Back To Below 0.89 Against Swiss Franc



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*Dollar Slips Back To Below 0.89 Against Swiss Franc

New Ukraine Finance Minister sees Financial Market Stabilising and Hryvnia Strengthening to $/10-Interfax


New Ukraine Finance Minister sees Financial Market Stabilising and Hryvnia Strengthening to $/10-Interfax

Ukraine Is Counting on Negotiations Continuing With Russia on Financial Cooperation and Gas Issues-Finance Minister Shlapak



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Ukraine Is Counting on Negotiations Continuing With Russia on Financial Cooperation and Gas Issues-Finance Minister Shlapak

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 27-28, 2014



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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 27-28, 2014

Forex: USD/CHF Technical Analysis ? Key Trend Line in Focus




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Talking Points:



  • USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat


  • Support: 0.8848 (Dec’13 closing bottom), 0.8798 (Dec 27 low)


  • Resistance: 0.8921 (23.6% Fib ret.), 0.8966 (38.2% Fib ret.)


Prices continue to range above support at 0.8848, the December 2013 closing bottom. Near-term resistance is at 0.8921, a barrier marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a falling trend line set from late January. A daily close above this threshold initially exposes the 38.2% level at 0.8966. Alternatively, a reversal beneath support aims for the December 27 low at 0.8798.



Prices are too close to relevant resistance to justify a long trade on risk/reward grounds. On the other hand, a short position would necessarily presume resistance will hold up, an assumption that is baseless thus far absent a clear-cut reversal signal. As such, we remain flat.



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dailyclassics_usd-chf_body_Picture_11.png, Forex: USD/CHF Technical Analysis – Key Trend Line in Focus


Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0



— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com





Forex: USD/CHF Technical Analysis ? Key Trend Line in Focus