Wednesday, March 26, 2014

EUR/USD: Obama turned the switch off


EUR/USD Current price: 1.3784


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The mild optimism seen with US opening following much better than expected Durable Goods Orders, is being quickly reversed in the American afternoon, with stocks turning red and yen strongly up across the board. US President Obama hit the wires, warning sanctions to Russia will increase and isolation deepen if Putin does not change its attitude. 


The EUR/USD mounted a smaller roller coaster this Wednesday, albeit moved back and forth over the past few hours, unable to hold above the 1.3800 which adds to the bearish case, at least in the short term. But the pair is also finding support around the 1.3780 Fibonacci level, and in fact, is 1.3750 the key support to break to see further downward momentum. The hourly chat shows price below its 20 SMA and indicators in negative territory, while the 4 hours one shows a slightly bearish potential yet to be confirmed.


Support levels: 1.3780 1.3750 1.3710


Resistance levels: 1.3825 1.3875 1.3910 



EUR/JPY Current price: 140.65


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Yen is strongly up against most rivals, with the EUR/JPY nearing the base of its latest range. The hourly chart shows price accelerating below its 100 and 200 SMAs both in the 141.20 area, as indicators turn lower below their midlines, supporting further slides. In the 4 hours chart technical readings also support a bearish continuation, with 140.40 as immediate support to break to confirm the downward continuation.


Support levels: 140.40 139.90 139.50


Resistance levels: 141.20 141.60 142.00



GBP/USD Current price: 1.6570


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The GBP/USD trades around the daily descendant trend line coming from this month high, still unable to clearly advance beyond it, but presenting an overall positive tone in the short term: the hourly chart shows 20 SMA heading higher below current price, as indicators advance above their midlines. In the 4 hours chart technical readings also present a clear bullish tone, albeit price advances are being capped by 200 EMA, currently around 1.6580. If price manages to continue advancing beyond this last, the bearish corrective movement should be complete, increasing the upward potential towards 1.67 price zone.


Support levels: 1.6520 1.6470 1.6425 


Resistance levels: 1.6580 1.6610 1.6655



USD/JPY Current price: 102.05


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The USD/JPY fell down to 100.91 before bouncing back above the 102.00 figure, consolidating right above a flat 200 SMA in the hourly chart. The slide resulted pretty definitive in the pair, considering it held above 101.85 Fibonacci support, yet is one step forward on USD/JPY bearish trend. Indicators maintain the negative bias also in the 4 hours chart, while 100 DMA continues to offer resistance around 102.50, daily high, and 38.2% retracement of its latest bearish run.


Support levels: 102.10 101.85 101.30 


Resistance levels: 102.60 102.90 103.40



AUD/USD Current price: 0.9225


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Mostly unchanged for the session, the AUD/USD continues to consolidate near its fresh year high of 0.9243. The hourly chart shows price well above a still bullish 20 SMA, albeit indicators diverge lower, still far from signaling a retracement. In the 4 hours chart indicators look exhausted to the upside in overbought territory, yet for now there are no signs the pair is ready to change bias. The 0.9260 price zone is a pretty tough midterm resistance and should contained price on a first attempt to break higher, yet a shallow retracement afterwards and renewed buying interest, should result in a final break higher, and an advance towards the 0.9300 figure.


Support levels: 0.9210 0.9170 0.9110 


Resistance levels: 0.9260 0.9300 0.9345
















































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EUR/USD: Obama turned the switch off

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