Forex Profits Master: August 2014

Sunday, August 31, 2014

Euro Remains Vulnerable After Sinking to One-Year Low vs. US Dollar

Talking Points:

New Zealand Dollar Gains as Terms of Trade Data Boost RBNZ Policy Bets

Euro May Continue Lower if German GDP, EZ PMI Revisions Disappoint

See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The New Zealand Dollar narrowly outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed an unexpectedly upbeat Terms of Trade report. The ratio of export vs. import prices rose 0.3 percent in the second quarter, topping bets calling for a 3.5 percent decline. The improvement in the island nation’s external position appeared to bolster RBNZ monetary policy bets, with the Kiwi rising alongside New Zealand’s benchmark 10-year bond yield.

Looking ahead, a busy European data docket is headlined by the final revisions of second-quarter German GDP data and Augusts’ Eurozone Manufacturing PMI print. The former release is expected to confirm that output in the Euro area’s top economy shrank 0.2 percent in the three months through June, marking the first contraction in over a year. The latter is seen matching preliminary estimates showing manufacturing- and service-sector activity in the currency bloc grew at the slowest pace in 13 months.

Eurozone economic news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year. Indeed, data from Citigroup suggests realized outcomes are underperforming economists’ bets by the widest margin since June 2013 as of last week. That suggests analysts continue to underestimate the degree of economic slowdown in the region, opening the door for additional downside surprises. Disappointing results on today’s releases may help stoke speculation about a forthcoming expansion of ECB stimulus at this week’s policy meeting, sending the Euro lower. We remain short EURUSD.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

Euro Remains Vulnerable After Sinking to One-Year Low vs. US Dollar

Crude Oil Makes Tentative Upside Break, SPX 500 Stalling Above 2000

Talking Points:

US Dollar Topping Cues Remain as Prices Digest Near 6-Month High

S&P 500 Stalls Above 2000 as Indecision Candles Warn of Pullback

Gold Upswing Stalls, Crude Oil Makes Tentative Break to the Upside

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be setting up for a correction downward after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 10618, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 10591. Alternatively, a turn above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 10657 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% threshold at 10683.

Crude Oil Makes Tentative Upside Break, SPX 500 Stalling Above 2000

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to stall below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansionat 2006.80. A turn lower from here sees near-term support is in the 1985.30-91.40 area, marked by the July 24 high and the 50% level, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% Fib at 1963.70. Alternatively, a turn above 2006.80 targets channel floor support-turned-resistance at 2015.10, followed by the top of the index’s long-term uptrend at 2028.10.

Crude Oil Makes Tentative Upside Break, SPX 500 Stalling Above 2000

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling after taking out resistance at 1282.47, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion. Resistance is now at 1290.15, the 50% level, with a push beyond that exposing the 38.2% Fib at 1297.82. Alternatively, a turn back below 1282.47 opens the door for a challenge of the 76.4% expansion at 1272.98.

Crude Oil Makes Tentative Upside Break, SPX 500 Stalling Above 2000

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke higher as expected, breaking through the top of a falling channel set from late July. Near-term resistance is now at 103.19, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a daily close above that exposing the 23.6% level at 104.50. The channel top (now at 102.18) has been recast as support, with a move back below that eyeing the August 19 swing lowat 101.05.

Crude Oil Makes Tentative Upside Break, SPX 500 Stalling Above 2000

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

Crude Oil Makes Tentative Upside Break, SPX 500 Stalling Above 2000

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Topping Signal Remains Intact

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

US Dollar Technical Strategy: Holding Long via Mirror Trader Basket **

Support: 10618, 10591, 10548

Resistance:10657, 10683, 10725

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Indexmay be setting up for a correction downward after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Near-term support is at 10618, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 10591. Alternatively, a turn above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 10657 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% threshold at 10683.

We remain broadly bullish on the US Dollar against its leading counterparts in line with ourlong-term fundamental outlook. As such, we remain long via theMirror Trader US Dollar currency basket.

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Topping Signal Remains Intact

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Topping Signal Remains Intact

Forex - GBP/USD slips lower in cautious trade

Euro zone Sentix investor confidence hits 18-month high in January

Norwegian unemployment rate rises unexpectedly

Crude oil futures lower with U.S. economy in focus

European stocks mixed to lower amid U.S. worries; Dax down 0.21%

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August High in the Crosshairs

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat

Support: 104.04, 103.64, 103.15

Resistance: 104.34-44, 104.84, 105.24

The US Dollar is attempting to renew its uptrend against Japanese Yen, with prices clawing their way back above the 104.00 figure. A daily close above the 10434-44 area marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the August 25 high exposes the 38.2% level at 104.84. Alternatively, a turn below the 14.6% expansion at 104.04 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% Fib retracement at 103.64.

The available trading range is too narrow to justify taking up a long or short position from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, we will continue to stand aside for the time being and wait for an actionable setup to present itself.

Add these technical levels directly to your charts with our Support/Resistance Wizard app!

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August High in the Crosshairs

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August High in the Crosshairs

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Sinks to One-Year Low

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at1.3644

Support: 1.3064, 1.3024, 1.2977

Resistance:1.3151, 1.3204, 1.3248

The Euro remains under heavy selling pressure, with prices dropping to the lowest level in a year against the US Dollar. A daily close below the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1.3064 exposes falling channel floor support at 1.3024. Alternatively, a reversal above the 76.4% Fib at 1.3151 clears the way for a challenge of the 61.8% expansion at 1.3204.

We entered short EURUSD at 1.3644 in line with our long-term fundamental outlook and have since booked profit on half of the position. The rest remains open to capture any further downside momentum with a stop-loss at 1.3583, our initial objective

Add these technical levels directly to your charts with our Support/Resistance Wizard app!

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Sinks to One-Year Low

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Sinks to One-Year Low

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Long Position Remains in Play

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Long at 0.9068

Support:0.9114, 0.9057, 0.9017

Resistance: 0.9175, 0.9223, 0.9272

The US Dollar rallied against the Swiss Franc as expected after prices produced a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern at trend line support. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.9175 exposes the 50% level at 0.9223. Alternatively, a turn below support in the 23.6% Fib at 0.9114 clears the way for a challenge of a rising trend line set from early May, now at 0.9057.

We bought USDCHF at 0.9068 and have since taken profit on half of our exposure. The rest remains open to capture any further upside momentum with a stop-loss at 0.9114, our initial objective

Add these technical levels directly to your charts with our Support/Resistance Wizard app!

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Long Position Remains in Play

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Long Position Remains in Play

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bottom Confirmation Pending

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

GBP/USD Technical Strategy: Flat

Support: 1.6533, 1.6470, 1.6407

Resistance:1.6612-29, 1.6661, 1.6762

The British Pound may be ready to launch a recovery against the US Dollar after prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is in the 1.6612-29 area, marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a falling trend line set from mid-July. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 23.6% level at 1.6661. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib expansion at 1.6533 clears the way for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 1.6470.

Risk/reward considerations argue against entering long with prices in close proximity to resistance. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bearish reversal signal suggests taking up the short side is premature. We will remain flat for now.

Add these technical levels directly to your charts with our Support/Resistance Wizard app!

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bottom Confirmation Pending

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bottom Confirmation Pending

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Waiting for Selling Opportunity

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

EUR/GBP Technical Strategy: Pending Short

Support: 0.7873, 0.7834, 0.7772

Resistance:0.7911, 0.7958, 0.7992

The Euro is accelerating lower against the British Pound anew, with prices dropping to the lowest level in a month. Near-term support is at 0.7873, the July 23 low, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7834. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% level at 0.7911 clears the way for a challenge of the 14.6% Fib at 0.7958.

While entering short is a tempting proposition, risk/reward considerations argue against taking a position at market with prices asymmetrically close to the would-be initial target versus a reasonable stop-loss level. With that in mind, we will begrudgingly stand aside for now.

Add these technical levels directly to your charts with our Support/Resistance Wizard app!

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Waiting for Selling Opportunity

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Waiting for Selling Opportunity

EUR/USD: dollar continues to lead

Sun, Aug 31 2014, 21:32 GMT

by

Valeria Bednarik

|

FXStreet

EUR/USD: dollar continues to lead

Australian Dollar Trades at $0.9325 in Early Asia-Pacific Trade

Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.

Top Forex analysts with immense experience in Forex trading, dozens of comprehensive analytical reviews daily, various subjects and types of analysis. Moreover, economic calendar by InstaForex Company can help you be in the middle of informational flow.

Australian Dollar Trades at $0.9325 in Early Asia-Pacific Trade

New Zealand Dollar Trades at $0.8356 in Early Asia-Pacific Trade

Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.

New Zealand Dollar Trades at $0.8356 in Early Asia-Pacific Trade

For the Week, the Dow Rose 0.6 Pct, the S&P 500 gained 0.7 Pct and the Nasdaq added 0.9 Pct

Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.

For the Week, the Dow Rose 0.6 Pct, the S&P 500 gained 0.7 Pct and the Nasdaq added 0.9 Pct

For the Month, the Dow gained 3.2 Pct, the S&P 500 Rose 3.8 Pct and the Nasdaq climbed 4.8 Pct

Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.

For the Month, the Dow gained 3.2 Pct, the S&P 500 Rose 3.8 Pct and the Nasdaq climbed 4.8 Pct

Euro Bears Shouldn?t Expect QE from ECB This Week

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral

- ECB President Draghi’s commentary at Jackson Hole set the tone for a weaker Euro all week.

- Traders expecting action on Thursday might find opportunities in the EURUSD downtrend or EURJPY inverse H&S.

- Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the Euro, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a Euro currency basket.

The Euro was the worst performing major currency last week, extending its losing streak against the US Dollar to seven consecutive weeks. EURUSD’s -0.84% drop last week sunk it to $1.3131, its lowest exchange rate since September 6, 2013. In part. The US Dollar’s own stretch of strong data is helping keep it afloat; conversely, there is a great deal of negativity currently encircling the Euro.

The change in European Central Bank Mario Draghi’s tone has been significant since the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Instead of ascribing the Euro-Zone’s low growth, low inflation, and high unemployment issues to ‘transitory’ factors, the head of the ECB among, other policymakers, is now accepting that the current weak economic environment is more or less a permanent condition.

Recent economic data has been so poor that another dip into recession across the Euro-Zone is possible – the third recession since the start of the global financial crises beginning in 2007. The Citi Economic Surprise Index fell to -45.1 on Friday, eclipsing the July low and setting a new yearly low for the year. The Euro’s problems are clearly related to economic and geopolitical concerns, as the liquidity conditions in the Euro-Zone are more than plentiful (EONIA fell at low as -0.04% on Thursday, the first time it has even been negative).

Even as Euro-Zone CPI hits its lowest levels since October 2009 (at +0.3% y/y), the aforementioned factors may not be enough to push the ECB into acting this week – at least in the unconventional, QE-inspired manner that market participants may be hoping for. The preferred timeframe to implement new measures is after October, when the ECB finishes collecting and analyzing banks’ balance sheets for the stress tests (AQR).

If it’s too soon for outright QE and meaningless to go forward with another rate cut given regional liquidity conditions, then perhaps the ABS purchase front will pique interest. Even then, substantive action may be falling short of expectations. The most significant steps taken might be downgraded inflation expectations; but that too is only dovish rhetoric at best. With non-commercials/speculators, at 150.7 net-short contracts, the most stretched since July 24, 2012 (155.1K contracts), any disappointment along the easing front could be enough to stoke a short-covering rally by the 18-member currency. –CV

To receive reports from this analyst, sign up for Christopher’s distribution list.

Euro Bears Shouldn?t Expect QE from ECB This Week

For the Week, the Dow Rose 0.6 Pct, the S&P 500 gained 0.7 Pct and the Nasdaq added 0.9 Pct

Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.

For the Week, the Dow Rose 0.6 Pct, the S&P 500 gained 0.7 Pct and the Nasdaq added 0.9 Pct

For the Month, the Dow gained 3.2 Pct, the S&P 500 Rose 3.8 Pct and the Nasdaq climbed 4.8 Pct

Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.

For the Month, the Dow gained 3.2 Pct, the S&P 500 Rose 3.8 Pct and the Nasdaq climbed 4.8 Pct

Saturday, August 30, 2014

For the Week, the Dow Rose 0.6 Pct, the S&P 500 gained 0.7 Pct and the Nasdaq added 0.9 Pct

Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.

For the Week, the Dow Rose 0.6 Pct, the S&P 500 gained 0.7 Pct and the Nasdaq added 0.9 Pct

For the Month, the Dow gained 3.2 Pct, the S&P 500 Rose 3.8 Pct and the Nasdaq climbed 4.8 Pct

Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.

For the Month, the Dow gained 3.2 Pct, the S&P 500 Rose 3.8 Pct and the Nasdaq climbed 4.8 Pct

Another Weekly Decline for Euro on Easing Bets

Multiple euro banknotes and coins The euro experienced a very bad week, falling to the lowest level in almost a year against the US dollar, even though most other major currencies, including the Great Britain pound and the Japanese yen, were rallying versus the greenback.

The euro started the week soft as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hinted last week at a possibility of another round of stimulus measures. While the German Finance Minister attempted to downplay easing expectations, poor economic indicators were not helping to convince traders that the ECB is not going to ease its monetary policy further. The central bank will conduct its next policy meeting on September 4.

Whatever the case will be, traders were selling the euro en masse. According to the weekly Commitments of Traders report, investors were increasing their short positions, while trimming long ones.

EUR/USD dropped from 1.3194 to 1.3139, touching the weekly low of 1.3133 — the weakest rate since September 6. EUR/JPY declined from 137.58 to 136.70. EUR/GBP sank 1 percent from 0.7969 to 0.7914.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Euro,

feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Another Weekly Decline for Euro on Easing Bets

For the Week, the Dow Rose 0.6 Pct, the S&P 500 gained 0.7 Pct and the Nasdaq added 0.9 Pct

Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.

For the Week, the Dow Rose 0.6 Pct, the S&P 500 gained 0.7 Pct and the Nasdaq added 0.9 Pct

For the Month, the Dow gained 3.2 Pct, the S&P 500 Rose 3.8 Pct and the Nasdaq climbed 4.8 Pct

Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.

For the Month, the Dow gained 3.2 Pct, the S&P 500 Rose 3.8 Pct and the Nasdaq climbed 4.8 Pct

Friday, August 29, 2014

GBP/USD Needs Greater BoE Dissent to Breakout of Bearish Trend

Fundamental Forecast for Pound:Neutral

GBP/USD Consolidates Under 200 DMA

British Pound Targets Fresh Lows versus the US Dollar

For Real-Time Updates and Potential Trade Setups on the British Pound, sign up for DailyFX on Demand

The GBP/USD may continue to trade in a narrow range ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision on September 4 amid the failed attempts to close above the 1.6600 handle.

Indeed, the British Pound may face additional headwinds ahead of the policy meeting as the economic docket for the U.K. is expected to show a slowdown in private-sector lending, and a series of dismal data prints may keep the central bank on the sidelines as Governor Mark Carney persistently highlights the ongoing slack in the real economy.

There is a risk of seeing a limited reaction to the interest rate decision should the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) refrain from releasing a policy statement, and the BoE Minutes due out on September 17 may continue to show a 7-2 split as Ben Broadbent retains a rather dovish outlook for monetary policy. Nevertheless, Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps are showing growing bets for higher interest rates as market participants now see the benchmark interest rate climbing by at least 50bp over the next 12-months, and the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may continue to prop up interest rate expectations should the committee show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

With that said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the GBP/USD suggests that a near-term bottom is taking shape as it threatens the bearish momentum from earlier this month, but the sterling remains vulnerable to a further decline as it retains the downward trending channel carried over from July. As a result, we would like to see a close above the 1.6600 handle for confirmation as well as conviction for a move higher, and the BoE meeting may serve as the fundamental catalyst to trigger a topside move in the GBP/USD should the central bank adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy.

GBP/USD Needs Greater BoE Dissent to Breakout of Bearish Trend

Gold Posts Monthly Gain But Prices Vulnerable Ahead of NFPs- $1271 Key

Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Bearish

Gold Responds to Trendline

Gold Climbs On Ukrainian Turmoil, Crude Oil Cautiously Recovers

Gold prices are slightly firmer this week with the precious metal higher by 0.48% to trade at $1287 ahead of the New York close on Friday. It’s been a lackluster month for gold traders and despite the volatility ($49 or 3.75%) prices are just 0.35% higher for the month of August. As we head into the open of September trade, the focus shifts back onto the economic data front as bullion holds just above the technically significant 200-day moving average.

As tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine continue to escalate, the relative support they have offered gold has continued to wane as the focus shifts back on to the outlook for monetary policy. With steady improvement in US data, interest rate expectations have crept forward keeping a bid under the greenback to the detriment of gold. As such, heading into next week all eyes will be fixated on the economic docket with ISM Manufacturing and Factory Orders on tap ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report.

The shortened holiday week kicks off with ISM data on Tuesday with the consensus estimates calling for a print of 57.0 in August, down from 57.1 in July. Factory orders on Wednesday are seen much stronger with calls for a 10.8% print for the month July, a stark contrast to the 1.1% read seen a month earlier. Highlighting the week’s event risk will be the US employment report on Friday with August Non-Farm Payrolls expected to come in at 225K, up from 209K in July as unemployment downticks to 6.1% from 6.2%. As always, we’ll be closely eyeing the changes in the labor force participation rate when trying to assess the validity of the drop in the headline figure. Look for gold to come under pressure the stronger the data is, with a miss on the print likely to offer some relief to the battered metal.

From a technical standpoint, gold remains vulnerable for further losses as we open up September trade and while we will need to confirm that bias with a break of the monthly opening range, our broader outlook will remain tentatively bearish while below near-term resistance at $1292. A break above this region targets more significant resistance at the confluence of the 50-day moving average and channel resistance dating back to the July high at $1306 and we will reserve this level as our bearish invalidation threshold. Interestingly, gold has alternated positive and negative monthly closes for the last seven months and while we eked out a gain this month, suggests we should be looking lower in September. Key support rests at the August lows and the 78.6% extension off the July high at $1271 with a break below this level eyeing support objectives at $1258/60, $1251 and $1224. Look for major event risk next week to offer a catalyst with central bank interest rate decisions and the US employment report on Friday in focus.

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To be added to Michael’s distribution list Click Here

New to FX Trading? Watch this Video

Gold Posts Monthly Gain But Prices Vulnerable Ahead of NFPs- $1271 Key

Crude Oil Ends Higher On Upbeat U.S. Data

U.S. crude oil surged to end higher for a fourth straight session Friday, on demand growth prospects after some upbeat economic data from the U.S. showed consumer sentiment to have improved unexpectedly in August.

Oil prices were supported by some strong data from the U.S. with a Thomson Reuters and University of Michigan report on Friday showing consumer sentiment in the U.S. to have unexpectedly improved in August, in an upward revision from a preliminary reading.

In a surprise retreat that complicates the prevailing belief that the U.S. economic situation is improving, consumers spent less in July than in the previous month, statistics issued by the U.S. Commerce Department showed. Personal income rose for the month, though at a slower pace than economists had projected.

Manufacturing activity in the Chicago-area also rebounded in August, as factories reported increases in new orders.

Nevertheless, worries over supplies persisted due to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with crude stockpiles in the U.S. having declined more than expected last week. Russia is one of the top oil producer in the world and is already under considerable pressure facing sanctions for its role in stirring up the conflict in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, NATO has accused Russia of violating Ukraine’s sovereignty and providing military support to pro-Russian rebels. NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said it was clear Russia had sent its troops into Ukraine.

News reports quoted Ukraine Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk as saying that he would push for his country’s membership of NATO and would present a bill to the parliament for approval.

U.S. President Barack Obama blamed Russia for the violence in eastern Ukraine, stating that it was the result of deep Russian involvement and that satellite images supported the claim of involvement. However, Russia continues to deny having any of its troops on Ukrainian territory.

Light Sweet Crude Oil futures for October delivery, the most actively traded contract, jumped $1.41 or 1.5 percent to close at $95.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Thursday.

Crude prices for October delivery scaled a high of $96.00 a barrel intraday and a low of $94.48.

On Thursday, crude oil futures ended higher on supply concerns amid worries over developments in Ukraine, with crude stockpiles in the U.S. having declined more than expected last week.

A report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed U.S. crude oil inventories to have dropped 2.1 million barrels in the week ended August 22, while analysts anticipated a decline of 1.3 million barrels. U.S. crude oil inventories were at 360.50 million barrels, end last week.

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against six major currencies, traded at 82.70 on Friday, up from its previous close of 82.49 late Thursday in North American trade. The dollar scaled a high of 82.72 intraday and a low of 82.42.

The euro trended lower against the dollar at $1.3142 on Friday, as compared to its previous close of $1.3182 late Thursday in North American trade. The euro scaled a high of $1.3196 intraday and a low of $1.3138.

In economic news from the U.S., the headline index of the Chicago Purchasing Managers report, an important gauge of manufacturing in the Midwest, jumped to 64.3 in August from 52.6 in July. The PMI number exceeded consensus estimates for a smaller rise to 56.0. The Chicago PMI in July was the largest decline since October 2008.

A U.S. Commerce Department report showed personal spending declined 0.1 percent in July. That followed an increase of 0.4 percent in the previous month. Economists expected consumer spending to rise by 0.2 percent.

Personal income rose for the month, though at a slower pace than economists had projected. The figure climbed 0.2 percent in the period, following an increase of 0.5 percent in June. Analysts anticipated a rise of 0.3 percent.

In other economic news, eurozone inflation slowed as expected in August on falling energy prices giving room for the central bank to support demand and economic recovery without stoking inflation and help the region create more jobs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at an elevated level in July. Nonetheless, it was at the lowest since September 2012.

Inflation eased to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent in July, flash report from Eurostat revealed Friday. The rate was in line with economists’ expectations. It was the lowest inflation rate after prices started rising since November 2009.

In other the economic news, a report from GfK showed consumer confidence in the U.K. to have rebounded to 1 in August, exceeding expectations for a score of -1.

Final estimates from Eurostat showed annual inflation in the eurozone to have eased to 0.3 percent in August from 0.4 percent in July, in line with estimates. Another report showed that the unemployment rate in the euro area remained unchanged at a 21-month low of 11.5 percent in July.

Published: 2014-08-29 19:56:00 UTC+00

Crude Oil Ends Higher On Upbeat U.S. Data

Brent Crude Futures Settle at $103.19/bbl, up 73 Cents, 0.71 Pct

Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.

Brent Crude Futures Settle at $103.19/bbl, up 73 Cents, 0.71 Pct

Boc Will Likely Cautiously Keep Rates on Hold at 1.00%

Quotes from BofA Merrill Lynch:

- Once burned, twice shy is the new mantra of the BoC, and even with growth firming, “serial disappointment” throughout the recovery means the BoC will likely cautiously keep rates on hold at 1.00%, opting to hold off on a change in policy tone until the export improvement shows staying power.

- We expect the policy statement to acknowledge recent economic progress, but to emphasize that ample slack means no need to hit the policy brakes and raise rates. As Governor Poloz stated recently at Jackson Hole: “If the economy took off like a rocket, it would still have room to grow and the way things have been, there is a lot of room to grow.”

Published: 2014-08-29 19:51:00 UTC+00

Boc Will Likely Cautiously Keep Rates on Hold at 1.00%

Gold Ends Lower On Upbeat Data, Strong Dollar

Gold futures ended lower on Friday, as the dollar strengthened after some upbeat economic data from the U.S. showed consumer sentiment in August to have improved unexpectedly, although consumer spending in July dipped.

Nonetheless, the decline was limited on concerns over the situation in Ukraine with investors closely monitoring the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Meanwhile, NATO accused Russia of violating Ukraine’s sovereignty and providing military support to pro-Russian rebels. NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen indicated it was clear Russia had sent its troops into Ukraine.

News reports quoted Ukraine Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk as saying that he would push for his country’s membership of NATO and would send a bill to the parliament.

On the economic front, a Thomson Reuters and University of Michigan report on Friday showed consumer sentiment in the U.S. to have unexpectedly improved in August, in an upward revision from a preliminary reading.

However, in a surprise retreat that complicates the prevailing belief that the U.S. economic situation is improving, consumers spent less in July than in the previous month, statistics issued by the U.S. Commerce Department showed. Personal income rose for the month, though at a slower pace than economists had projected.

Manufacturing activity in the Chicago-area also rebounded in August, as factories reported increases in new orders.

Gold for December delivery, the most actively traded contract, dropped $3.00 or 0.2 percent to close at $1,287.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday.

Gold for December delivery scaled an intraday high of $1,292.50 and a low of $1,284.10 an ounce.

On Thursday, gold futures ended higher on its safe haven appeal with investors keeping away from the riskier equity assets, tracking declining U.S. and European markets, even as the situation in Ukraine worsened.

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained unchanged at 795.60 on Friday from its previous close of 797.09 tons.

A report from GfK showed consumer confidence in the U.K. to have rebounded to 1 in August, exceeding expectations for a score of -1.

Published: 2014-08-29 19:33:00 UTC+00

Gold Ends Lower On Upbeat Data, Strong Dollar

Colombia's Central Bank says Rate Decision Was by Majority

Exclusive newsline by InstaForex is your reliable assistant in the Forex world.

Colombia's Central Bank says Rate Decision Was by Majority

EURUSD holding below the 1.3200 level after the CPI Flash Estimate report

EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.3181. The second quarter GDP report from the United States showed an expansion of 4.2 percent on an annual basis better than the forecasted 3.9 percent rise. A separate report indicated that the Pending Home Sales in the largest economy in the world rose 3.3 percent on a monthly basis in July.

Data released today indicated that the annual inflation in the Eurozone dropped to a level of 0.3 percent in August. Investors are now looking forward for the Chicago PMI report due from the United States.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.3157 and resistance is seen at 1.3291.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

EURUSD holding below the 1.3200 level after the CPI Flash Estimate report

Safe haven currency demand – Euro under renewed pressure

Yesterday we saw tensions in Ukraine rising as Ukraine’s president said that Russian troops had entered Ukraine territory. This helped safe haven currencies (CHF and JPY) to push higher against counter currencies.

EUR/CHF is now trading at 1.2052, very close to 1.20 that Swiss National Bank set as floor to the currency and is willing to protect. The Euro was lower against the Japanese Yen as well, trading as low as 136.40 yesterday. The pair has been consolidating near its yearly lows for the past month and the next support level can be found at 135.71 (August low).

Other Euro crosses seem in bearish formation with EUR/USD and EUR/GBP challenging recent lows yesterday and this morning, ahead of Eurozone inflation figures about to be released at 09:00 GMT. Consensus for the YoY inflation figures is at 0.8% and the figure is well expected from market participants as the data will be watched very closely by ECB ahead of the monetary policy meeting held next week.

Safe haven currency demand – Euro under renewed pressure

GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2014

Show full picture
Show full picture

One month ago, the bears initiated a bearish trend off price levels around 1.7150-1.7190. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been declining within the depicted bearish channel.

The price levels of 1.7050 – 1.7000 failed to provide enough support for the pair. Hence, the bears had a potential bearish target around 1.6800-1.6850.

However, this price zone of 1.6800 – 1.6820 failed to provide support too, exposing the price level of 1.6665.

Shortly after, price levels around 1.6800-1.6820 offered a valid SELL entry at retesting. Targets were reached initially around 1.6670, 1.6625 and 1.6580.

Price action action should be watched today for a possible BUY entry upon bullish breakout of the current channel depicted on the 4H chart.

Projection targets are roughly located at 1.6660 and 1.6705.

On the other hand, the next bearish destination is located around 1.6460 in case the bears keep developing such bearish momentum. ( Price level of 1.6460 corresponds to a prominent bottom on the daily chart ).

Mohamed Samy is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Ask the author

Back to the list

More articles by this author

GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2014

Show full picture
Show full picture

One month ago, the bears initiated a bearish trend off price levels around 1.7150-1.7190. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been declining within the depicted bearish channel.

The price levels of 1.7050 – 1.7000 failed to provide enough support for the pair. Hence, the bears had a potential bearish target around 1.6800-1.6850.

However, this price zone of 1.6800 – 1.6820 failed to provide support too, exposing the price level of 1.6665.

Shortly after, price levels around 1.6800-1.6820 offered a valid SELL entry at retesting. Targets were reached initially around 1.6670, 1.6625 and 1.6580.

Price action action should be watched today for a possible BUY entry upon bullish breakout of the current channel depicted on the 4H chart.

Projection targets are roughly located at 1.6660 and 1.6705.

Mohamed Samy is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Ask the author

Back to the list

More articles by this author

GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2014

Show full picture
Show full picture

One month ago, the bears initiated a bearish trend off price levels around 1.7150-1.7190. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been declining within the depicted bearish channel.

The price levels of 1.7050 – 1.7000 failed to provide enough support for the pair. Hence, the bears had a potential bearish target around 1.6800-1.6850.

However, this price zone of 1.6800 – 1.6820 failed to provide support too, exposing the price level of 1.6665.

Shortly after, price levels around 1.6800-1.6820 offered a valid SELL entry at retesting. Targets were reached initially around 1.6670, 1.6625 and 1.6580.

Price action action should be watched today for a possible BUY entry upon bullish breakout of the current channel depicted on the 4H chart.

Projection targets are roughly located at 1.6660 and 1.6705.

Mohamed Samy is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Ask the author

Back to the list

More articles by this author

GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2014

EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2014

Show full picture

By breaking down the price level of 1.5050, the bears confirmed a long-term Head and Shoulders bearish reversal pattern.

The bears managed to break down to 1.4950, then 1.4730 corresponding to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels.

Two bullish spikes were expressed above 1.4950 (50% Fibonacci level on the daily chart) took place. However, the bulls failed to pursue the bullish breakout leading to failure of the bullish breakout attempt.

Since then, the EUR/AUD pair has been moving within the depicted RED channel in an attempt to reach the lower limit located roughly around 1.3880.However, the current prices being tested correspond to a prominent bottom (since November 2013). There’s a high probability of bullish recovery to be witnessed around there.

Note that failure of the bulls to provide enough buying pressure at the current levels, will probably expose 1.3900-1.3860 to be re-tested.

Mohamed Samy is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Ask the author

Back to the list

More articles by this author

EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2014

USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2014

Show full picture
Show full picture

The USD/CAD pair has failed to show enough bullish momentum above 1.1200 during the last visit on March 20. Since then, the pair has been downtrending within the depicted bearish channel.

Bullish rejection was expressed at retesting the lower limit of the bearish channel around 1.0630 on July 3 (the origin of the previous bullish impulse initiated in December 2013).

This enabled bulls to achieve a bullish breakout off the depicted channel allowing bulls to retest the price zone between 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels on the daily chart) where a prominent congestion zone was formed previously.

The USD/CAD pair had a strong resistance zone located between 1.0950 and 1.1020 (Fibonacci Levels 50% and 61.8% of the most recent bearish swing).

As we mentioned before, bearish rejection should be anticipated after such a long bullish rally that originated off 1.0650 and 1.0710.

Previously, around the price level of 1.0950, agressive bearish rejection was expressed. This was manifested in many Shooting-Star daily candlesticks. Thus, the short-term bearish direction is enhancing .

A valid SELL position was suggested at retesting which took place this week. Initial bearish target is located around 1.0825.

Conservative traders should wait for higher entry levels to be retested especially around 1.0880-1.0900.

Daily closure below price zone of 1.0870-1.0850 confirms a long-term double-top pattern with its projection target located at 1.0770.

On the other hand, daily fixation above 1.0950 (50% Fibonacci level) enables the bulls to shoot towards 1.1020 and 1.1050 initially (very low probability in the meanwhile ).

Mohamed Samy is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Ask the author

Back to the list

More articles by this author

USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2014

EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2014

Show full picture

By breaking down the price level of 1.5050, the bears confirmed a long-term Head and Shoulders bearish reversal pattern.

The bears managed to break down to 1.4950, then 1.4730 corresponding to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels.

Note that failure of the bulls to provide enough buying pressure at the current levels, will probably expose 1.3900-1.3860 to be re-tested.

Mohamed Samy is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him.

Ask the author

Back to the list

More articles by this author

EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2014