AUD/USD Holds August Opening Range Ahead of RBA, 2Q GDP

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Holds August Range Ahead of RBA Interest Rate Decision.

- Gold Marks Failed Closes Above Former Support; Looking for Break & Close Below $1,270.

- USDOLLAR Holds Above Trendline Resistance Even as Bullish RSI Momentum Wanes.

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AUD/USD

• 
  Preserves the opening monthly range ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision & 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report.
  


• 
  Biggest risk surrounding the RBA meeting will be stronger verbal intervention from Governor Glenn Stevens amid the resilience in the Australian dollar.
  


• 
  Although the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long on AUD/USD, the ratio has narrowed as it currently sits at +1.42.
  

XAU/USD

• 
  Despite the spike into $1,296, the lack of momentum to close above former support around $1,291(38.2% retracement) to $1,292 (38.2% expansion) may highlight a near-term top as the RSI preserves the bearish momentum .
  


• 
  Still need a break and close below $1,270 (50.0% expansion) to favor a resumption of the bearish trend carried over from July.
  


• 
  Next downside objective comes in around $1,260, the 61.8% retracement of the December advance.
  

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Negative Sentiment in EUR/USD Overstretched?

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USDOLLAR

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

• 
  Looks as though the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index will continue to close above trendline resistance despite the bearish break on the RSI amid stick inflation.
  


• 
  Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) highlights the biggest U.S. event risk as employment is expected to increase another 220K in August while Average Hourly Earnings is expected to climb an annualized 2.1%.
  


• 
  Nevertheless, technical outlook continues to highlight the risk for a larger correction as RSI breaks bullish trend & falls back from overbought territory; former resistance around 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% expansion) remains in focus.
  

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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AUD/USD Holds August Opening Range Ahead of RBA, 2Q GDP