EUR/USD Current price: 1.2968
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The EUR/USD gaps lower with the weekly opening, as Cyprus negotiations are far from over. Authorities have been working all through the weekend to come to a deal to guarantee a 10B euro bailout package for the country. So far, Cyprus had agreed with Troika on a 20% levy over and above €100,000 at Bank of Cyprus, and 4% on deposits over the same level in the rest of the local banks. Tension among investors should keep the pair limited unless until the EU FinMin meeting concludes. If an agreement is finally reached, the common currency may see some relief, although with fears of bank runs and contagion should keep gains limited by 1.3000 area. Lack of agreement or yet another delay in negotiations, should be fundamentally bearish for the pair, with 1.2880 then a sight. Technical readings in the hourly chart remain in positive territory although losing upward momentum, while in the 4 hours chats the picture is pretty much the same, with indicators turning south above their midlines.
Support levels: 1.2950 1.2920 1.2880
Resistance levels: 1.3000 1.3030 1.3070
EUR/JPY Current price: 122.67
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The EUR/JPY trades around Friday’s close, with the yen getting stronger amid European woes and run to safety. The hourly chart shows price below 100 SMA, currently around 123.00 offering dynamic resistance, while indicators turn lower around their midlines, reflecting the lack of buying interest. In the 4 hours chart technical readings are biased lower, although of course, the Cyprus’ crisis weights more than technical’s today. To the upside, the pair needs to settle above the 124.00 area to erase the bearish tone and turn higher, but chances seem quite limited at the time being.
Support levels: 122.00 121.60 121.10
Resistance levels: 123.00 123.60 124.00
GBP/USD Current price: 1.5233
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The GBP/USD stands above 1.5220 former resistance and now immediate support, barely unchanged over the weekend. The pair suffered a 70 pips knee jerk on Friday, following a rating downgrade of the country, but quickly bounced higher, suggesting buying interest remains high. As for technical readings, the hourly chart maintains the bullish tone, with indicators heading higher above their midlines and 20 SMA heading higher below current price. In the 4 hours chart technical readings turned flat in positive territory, as per the lack of volume at the time being. 1.5270 area comes as immediate resistance and probable bullish target, as long as price holds above mentioned 1.5220.
Support levels: 1.5220 1.5160 1.5115
Resistance levels: 1.5260 1.5310 1.5350
USD/JPY Current price: 94.63
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Timid bounce in the USD/JPY as the week starts, is not enough to erase the general bearish tone the pair presents: the hourly chart shows indicators still below their midlines, while 100 and 200 moving averages slowly gain bearish slope above current price, acting as dynamic resistances around 95.20 and 95.50. Risk on the pair remains to the downside, with a break below 94.20 opening doors for a deeper midterm correction.
Support levels: 94.20 93.70 93.30
Resistance levels: 94.85 95.20 9550
AUD/USD: Current price: 1.0453
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The AUD/USD maintains its positive tone, with the pair pressuring recent high around 1.0460, and the hourly chart showing price firm above 20 SMA but indicators flat in positive territory. In the 4 hours chart technical readings are also holding in positive territory although showing no actual strength. Ranging as most major crosses ahead of Cyprus final negotiations, technical readings favor the upside towards 1.0500 area; once above, there’s little in the middle up to the 1.0610 strong static resistance level.
Support levels: 1.0440 1.0410 1.0360
Resistance levels: 1.0490 1.0530 1.0580
EUR/USD: Waiting for EU group decision
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