Asian Market Update: Japan deflation remains dire despite the new BOJ policy; North Korea on heightened alert after US fly-by



Economic Data


- (JP) JAPAN FEB PRELIM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.1% V +2.5%E (first decline in 3 months); Y/Y: -11.0% V -8.5%E


– (JP) JAPAN MAR TOKYO CPI Y/Y: -1.0% V -0.9%E (biggest drop since 2010); TOKYO CPI EX-FRESH FOOD: -0.5% V -0.6%E


- (JP) JAPAN FEB OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING Y/Y: 0.8% V 0.1%E (2nd consecutive rise)


– (JP) JAPAN FEB NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: -0.7% V -0.7%E; NATIONAL CPI EX-FRESH FOOD: -0.3% V -0.4%E (biggest drop in 6 months)


– (JP) JAPAN FEB JOBLESS RATE: 4.3% V 4.2%E (7-month high); JOB-TO-APPLICANT RATIO: 0.85 V 0.86E


– (JP) JAPAN MAR MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.4 V 48.5 PRIOR (10-month high)


– (KR) SOUTH KOREA FEB CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX CHANGE Y/Y: -0.1% V -0.2% PRIOR


– (KR) SOUTH KOREA FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.8% V +0.3%E; Y/Y: -9.3% V -5.3%E


– (KR) SOUTH KOREA APR BUSINESS SURVEY MANUFACTURING: 80 V 76 PRIOR; NON- MANUFACTURING: 71 V 69 PRIOR



Markets Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)


– Nikkei225 flat


– S&P/ASX closed


– Kospi +0.6%


– Shanghai Composite +0.2%


– Hang Seng closed



Observations/Insights


– Narrow ranges were observed across equity and currency markets amid drowsy trading ahead of Good Friday and Easter holiday weekend. Despite the record high close in the S&P500 index and the outsized losses in Shanghai Composite to 3-month lows overnight, the bounce on the mainland has been fairly subdued. Instead, China-related focus appears to be shifting to Monday’s release of the official manufacturing PMI data. Notably, PBoC has strengthened the Yuan midpoint to its highest level since May, just CNY0.002 away from record highs.


– Nikkei225 opened slightly higher but quickly pared those gains, as Japanese yen remains stubbornly strong. After an 18-figure rise in just 5-months, USD/JPY is headed for its 3rd consecutive week of losses as traders square some Yen shorts ahead of next week’s historic BOJ decision – the first under the new Governor Kuroda – on Apr 4th. Today’s inflation and employment data should give policymakers plenty to think about, with both Japan’s jobless rate rising and annualized deflation deepening despite the January announcement of new policy stance by the Shirakawa-led policy board.


- On the peninsula, North Korea’s Kim ordered missile batteries on standby following overnight flyby by the US B2 stealth bombers of South Korea’s airspace. Korean Won is down for the 3rd consecutive session, with USD/KRW approaching multi-month highs of 1,120.



Currencies/Fixed Income/Commodities


– (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Assets Week ending Mar 27th: $3.184T v $3.189T prior; M1 y/y change: 11.5% v 11.7% w/w; M2 y/y change: 7.2% v 7.3% w/w


– USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.2689 v 6.2143 prior close (highest CNY setting since May 2012)


– EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD are tigthly range bound within a 20-pip span around $1.2820, $1.5200, and $1.0410 respectively. USD/JPY rose as high as ¥94.30 before reversing below ¥94 handle. Fin Min Aso spoke after the release of weak price data, lamenting that tackling deflation will take some time. Note that Aso is a vocal skeptic of BOJ Gov Kuroda’s commitment to a 2-year time frame for achieving 2pct CPI.



Speakers/Political/In the Papers


- (CN) China state researcher Li Wei: Sees 2013 GDP around the same levels as 2012 or slightly higher – Chinese press


– (CN) China MOFCOM researcher: US’s IT limits violate WTO rules – financial press


– (CN) Goldman Sachs said to have warned that China export growth may be overstated since H2 of 2012 – financial press


– (CN) According to Internet Society of China, online retail sales in 2012 rose 64.7% y/y to CNY1.32T – Shanghai Daily


- (CN) Shanghai Apr land transactions expected to rise to more than 1.3M sqm vs 307K sqm y/y – Chinese press citing Soufun.com


– (JP) Japan PM Abe does not intend to visit the controversial Yasukuni shrine – Japan press


– (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Beating deflation will take time; Exports environment for Japan firms still uncertain – financial press


- (KR) North Korea’s Kim orders rocket units to be on standby to fire at US bases after a recent stealth bomber run – KCNA


– (KR) South Korea Econ advisor Cho: South Korea may face its own “fiscal cliff” – financial press



Equities


– Panasonic 6752.JP: Releases mid-term business plan; May take acquisition to boost auto sales – financial press


– NEC 6701.JP: Plans to end mobile phone production in FY13 – Japanese press


– Tohoku Electric 9506.JP: Cancels plan for nuclear facility in Fukushima – Mainichi News


– JFE Holding 5411.JP: Delays decision plans for steel mill production in Vietnam – Nikkei News


– Olympus 7733.JP: To sell medical business units to Noritsu for ¥6-7B – Nikkei News


– Daewoo E&C 047040.KR: Aims for KRW16T in new orders for 2013, up 15.8% y/y – Korean press


- Cosco 1919.HK: Reports FY12 net loss CNY9.6B v loss CNY7.2Be; Rev CNY88.3B, +4.4% y/y; Opens limit down


- CSCO: *RAISES QUARTERLY DIVIDEND 23% TO $0.17 FROM $0.14


– EBAY: CFO: Targets FY15 Rev $21.5-23.5B; non gaap CAGR 15-19% for FY12-15 – analyst day