Australian Dollar:


Like much of the world, Australians are still enjoying what’s left of their long weekend and it seems that what investors are left in the market are happy to see the currency move sideways till more liquidity returns. The Aussie spent much of Friday trading between 1.0400 and 1.0430 and we open this morning still within that range at 1.0415. Today we have some important Chinese data in the form of Manufacturing PMI and with minimal liquidity we could see some movements if the data has any kind of surprise. Beyond that investors will then refocus on tomorrow’s big release in the RBA rate decision. Although most economists are not expecting a change, the statement will receive quite a bit of attention with some believing the tone will move away from an easing to a more neutral stance which would be positive for the Aussie. 



  • We expect a range today of 1.0395 – 1.0445 

  


New Zealand Dollar:


We find the Kiwi little changed this morning at 0.8360 against its US counterpart as holiday trading sees little interest in taking it out of ranges established on Thursday’s close. The Kiwi was somewhat of a benefactor of a falling Euro towards the end of last week as the cross rate fell towards 1.5250 as developments in Cyprus reduced confidence in the Eurozone even as the bailout was passed and a run on the banks has so far been avoided. This week is looking to be a quiet one locally and so most movement should be drawn from offshore events, in particular Chinese manufacturing today, the Bank of Japan on Thursday and then US employment on Friday night. 



  • We expect a range today of 0.8340 – 0.8400 

   


Great British Pound:


Markets in the UK and across much of Europe remain closed today, holding most currencies in a very tight range, and the pound is no exception as we trade between 1.5180 and 1.5210. After reaching highs close to 1.5260 in the early stages of last week, the pound fell to 1.51 on some poor fundamentals on Wednesday before staging a recovery on Thursday mostly on the back of flows out of Europe. This week the main focus for the pound will be the Bank of England rate and asset purchase decisions, while the ECB’s rate decision should also see some movement on the EUR/GBP cross. With markets also closed in Australia and New Zealand the pound remains steady against both of their currencies (GBP/AUD: 1.4590, GBP/NZD: 1.8165)



  • We expect a range today of 1.4550 – 1.4615


Majors:


As we headed into Good Friday and most of the major markets began closing for a long weekend we saw positions begin to be squared away and ranges tighten up. This morning we open on the lower end of Friday’s range for the Euro, currently trading just above 1.2800 after only reaching 1.2840 during the Good Friday trade. Data has been scarce but there have been a number of news stories over the weekend to spark some interest with developments in Cyprus continuing, mostly in regards to the size of the deposit right downs, and also uncertainty for the Italian leadership. With the divided Italian parliament still unable to form a government, the Italian President has now stepped in to try to bring the parties together as investors become increasingly concerned about what the delays would mean for troubled economy. This along with speculation that Slovenia could be next in the bailout queue will likely hold the Euro under pressure in what is shaping up to be a busy week for the shared currency with the ECB rate decision, Eurozone unemployment and Retail sales. Meanwhile focus will also be on the US and Japan this week with big events in the form of the first BOJ meeting since the change in Governor and then US employment data on Friday. USD/JPY opens slightly higher this morning at 94.20.


 


Data releases:



  • AUD: No data today

  • NZD: No data today

  • JPY: Tankan

  • GBP: No data today

  • EUR: No data today

  • USD: ISM Manufacturing, Construction spending