Talking Points
Important cycle turn window coming up in the Euro
USD/CAD closing in on key downside pivot area
Gold breaks major price/time support area
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
EUR/USD touched a new multi-month low on Thursday before finding support at the 127% extension of the April-May advance near 1.3590
Our near-term trend bias remains lower in in the euro while under 1.3675
Interim support remains at 1.3590 ahead of major potential reaction levels between 1.3565 and 1.3520
A turn window of some significance is eyed early next week
A daily close over 1.3675 will shift our near-term trend bias to positive
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.3675, but positions should be reduced significantly (ie. take profits) heading into the turn window next week.
Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
USD/CAD has come under steady pressure following last week’s failure to close over the 1st square root relationship of the year’s low near 1.0915
The short-term trend bias is lower in Funds while under 1.0915
A Fibonacci support cluster near 1.0800 remains an important downside pivot with traction under this zone needed to confirm that a more important decline is indeed underway
The next important cyclical turn period looks to be around the middle of next month
Only a daily close over 1.0915 would turn us positive on USD/CAD
USD/CAD Strategy: Like the short side while under 1.0915.
Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD
Our fears were realized in Gold (See Gold Gearing Up For A Powerful Move) as the metal came under aggressive downside pressure yet again on an option expiration day. The move through the late April low at 1268 has eliminated a major element of “time support” and turns our focus and attention generally lower in the metal into the next big cycle turn window which we see around the middle of next month (though there is a minor turn eyed next week). The 4th square root relationship of the year’s high comes into play at 1244 and looks to be the next important support area ahead of a major action/reaction zone between 1220/10. It would take a daily settlement in XAU/USD back over the 50% retracement of the December to March range near 1285 to warn that the near-term negative dynamics have truly changed.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Price & Time: Gold What Now?
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