April US Durable Goods Report Signals That Moderate Rates of Business Investment Remain in Place

Quotes from Barclays Capital:  

- Durable goods orders in the US rose 0.8% m/m in April, stronger than our forecast (-4.3%) and the consensus (-0.7%). The source of the upside surprise in the headline index relative to our forecast came in non-defense aircraft, which fell (-4.1% m/m) much less than we had expected based on data from Boeing. 

- Outside of this, core capital goods orders fell 1.2%, in line with our forecast (-1.5%). Core shipments, which feed directly into our GDP tracking estimate) fell 0.4% m/m. Prior March data were revised modestly higher, with core orders and shipments now rising 4.7% and 2.1%, respectively. 

- Altogether, in our view, the report signals that moderate rates of business investment remain in place. Despite core orders and shipments coming in slightly better than our forecast, the April durable goods report left our GDP tracking estimates unchanged at 3.1% q/q (saar) for Q2 and -0.6% q/q (saar) for Q1.

Published: 2014-05-27 17:45:00 UTC+00

April US Durable Goods Report Signals That Moderate Rates of Business Investment Remain in Place