Wednesday, May 28, 2014

EUR/USD: downward risk prevails


EUR/USD Current price: 1.3591


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The EUR/USD closes the day right below the 1.3600 level first time since mid February this year, hit by more signs of economic slowdown in Europe, and the ECB hour approaching: the Central Bank is expected to announce some measures to fight disinflation, as they like to call it, including another round of LTRO and a probable rate cut either in the refi or the deposits rate. Among stocks, European indexes closed mixed, but far from posting impressive moves on the day, and US ones point also for a consolidative day, with DJIA down 0.06% and S&P  up 0.07%. Commodities on the other hand suffered another round of losses, fueling greenback’s rally against major currencies. 


As for the technical picture, the EUR/USD slide is quite shallow, considering the pair lost less than 50 pips on the day, despite breaching some key supports during the last few days. As commented above, that’s due to market having already priced in most of the ECB upcoming movements, thus bears hold the lead nevertheless. The hourly chart shows indicators starting to look exhausted in oversold territory, but far from signaling some upward movement on the makes. Moving averages in the mentioned time frame present a strong bearish slope above current price keeping the pressure to the downside. In the 4 hour chart indicators turned lower, still not completely over their neutral stance: immediate support continues to be in the 1.3570 area, and a break below should lead to a continued slide towards the 1.3520/30 price zone.


Support levels:  1.3570 1.3525 1.3500


Resistance levels: 1.3610 1.3650 1.3680



EUR/JPY Current price: 138.37


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Yen failed to extend its fall finally resulted in a strong advance against its rivals early US session, when US yields began to retrace from recent highs. The EUR/JPY traded as low as 138.29 on Wednesday, and consolidates nearby ahead of a new day opening, with the hourly chart showing price well below 100 and 200  SMAs, both now in the 138.80/90 area and acting as dynamic resistances, while momentum heads lower near oversold levels. CCI diverges some aiming higher, but holds in negative territory, far from suggesting a trend chance. In the 4 hours chart bearish momentum builds up as indicators turn south in negative territory, while the distance between moving averages widens. 


Support levels:  138.35 137.90 137.40


Resistance levels: 138.90 139.40 139.90 



GBP/USD Current price: 1.6706


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The GBP/USD nosedived posting a daily low of 1.6697, accelerating its downward move below former May low of 1.6731 now immediate resistance. The hourly chart shows indicators in extreme oversold territory, while 20 SMA gained further bearish slope, acting now as dynamic resistance around 1.6770. The 1.6700 level has prove strong in the past, main reason of current consolidation around the level, but the lack of strength in bounces suggests the risk remains to the downside. The 4 hours chart presents also a strong bearish momentum, supportive of the bearish tone of the pair: next strong support is the 1.6650 price zone, with a break below it opening doors for a continued slide towards 1.6250, this year lows. 


Support levels: 1.6695 1.6650 1.6615


Resistance levels: 1.6730 1.6770 1.6810 



USD/JPY Current price: 101.83


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The USD/JPY finally gave up with US opening, falling down to 101.63 following the retracement in US yields. Repeated failure in the 102.00 level has finally took its toll on the pair, and despite the limited slide, risk to the downside has increased. The hourly chart shows price found support in its 200 SMA in the short term, but remains below 100 one, currently acting as dynamic resistance in the 101.90 price zone. In the 4 hours chart a mild bearish tone is present, yet momentum remains too close to its midline to confirm its time to sell. A break below 101.50 is required to confirm another round of selling, eyeing 101.20 first, but 100.70, this year lows, as bearish target.

Support levels:  101.50 101.20 100.70


Resistance levels: 102.10 102.35 102.70



AUD/USD Current price: 0.9226


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The AUD/USD retraced again from the critical 0.9270 Fibonacci resistance, and trades near its daily low of 0.9213 with a limited bearish tone as per holding within these last days’ range. The hourly chart presents a mild bearish tone with indicators heading lower below their midlines and price capped below 20 SMA, while in the 4 hours chart, technical readings slowly gain bearish tone, as price moves below its 20 SMA and indicators cross their midlines to the downside. Anyway, a clear break below 0.9200 is required to confirm a downward continuation, with 0.9130 as probable bearish target for this Thursday.


Support levels: 0.9200 0.9170 0.9130


Resistance levels: 0.9240 0.9270 0.9310 






EUR/USD: downward risk prevails

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