Price & Time: Range Low in the Euro?

Talking Points

• 
  Just a squeeze or something more in USD/JPY?
  


• 
  USD/CAD turns down from key Gann level
  


• 
  EUR/USD still flirting with 200-day moving average
  

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• 
  USD/JPY has rebounded aggressively over the past few days from just above the year-to-date low at 100.75
  


• 
  Our near-term trend bias is lower in exchange rate while below 102.80
  


• 
  A daily close under 101.35 is needed to signal an important downside resumption
  


• 
  An important cycle turn window is eyed around the end of the month/start of June
  


• 
  Traction over Gann resistance at 102.80 would shift the near-term trend bias to positive in USD/JPY
  

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 102.80.

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• 
  USD/CAD has come under steady downside pressure over the past few days after failing last week to close over the 1st square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.0915
  


• 
  Our near-term trend bias is lower in Funds while under 1.0915
  


• 
  The 1.0790 area is a key downside pivot with weakness below this level needed to signal that a more important decline is underway
  


• 
  A minor cycle turn window is eyed mid-week
  


• 
  A daily close over 1.0915 would shift focus higher
  

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.0915.

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

EUR/USD has been in a steady downtrend since peaking at the 11th square root relationship of the 2013 low near 1.4000 earlier this month. Friday’s close below the 1.3640 3rd square root relationship of the year-to-date high keeps our focus lower in the exchange rate, but caution is required heading into next week as a variety of short and medium-term cycles will be converging around this time and at least a minor reversal looks possible (probably before the ECB meets). The bottom of the 1-year standard deviation channel comes into play around 1.3560 while the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high is at 1.3620 making this an ideal zone for a potential turnaround. A move back through the Gann and Fibonacci resistance at 1.3755 would warn that the rate has bottomed ahead of schedule.

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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Price & Time: Range Low in the Euro?