Quotes from RBC Capital Markets:
-USD: The market is looking for +230K for today’s headline payrolls and 227K for private payrolls gains (RBC +210K for both). Despite a hiring pace that remains lacklustre, firm net payroll gains can still be had on the back of continued improvement on the separations side of the equation. We look for an unemployment rate of 6.0% from 6.1% prior (consensus 6.1%).
-Looking at market reactions over the last few months: our US rates team notes that both the June and April reports came in with very strong headline gains (+288k) and well above consensus (+73k and +70k respectively) but only produced kneejerk reactions of about 6bps in UST10s.
-Perhaps even more surprising is that these reactions faded throughout the day-in the case of the April report, 10s actually closed lower in yield. As always, what matters more to us in the report will be the details on the wage pie.
Published: 2014-08-01 06:54:00 UTC+00
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